Friday mailbag!

Here we go.

Happy Friday!

We did it!

And remember: You are definitely having a better week than the Washington Post!

Lots to get to today — so let’s get to it. And remember: I do a 1 pm eastern livestream every Friday over at my YouTube channel. Hope you can join us!

To your questions!

Q: I’m really starting to get the “Dems shoulda picked another presidential candidate” feeling. Are we too late?

A: I DO think it’s too late to replace Joe Biden — barring some sort of health event that would force his hand and push him out of the race.

To be clear: There is NO chance Biden is going to just step aside of his own accord. We are too far down the road for that. He truly believes that he is the only Democrat in the party who can beat Donald Trump.

I used to agree with that but as the age issues have continued to dog him I am more skeptical. But, what he thinks matters a whole lot more than what I think. Like, A LOT.

I think it’s possible that Democrats more broadly have realized that Biden’s weaknesses are deeper and more sticky than they initially estimated. And that, if they could do it all again they would try to put someone else in his place.

But, that process would ALWAYS have been nearly impossible. Because pushing out a sitting incumbent president of the United States is very, very tough.

Q: Very slight inklings that Trump's conviction might really be playing into people's perceptions of him - which seems extraordinary how long he's been around and how much of a known quality he is. But even I, no Trump fan from the beginning, find myself looking at him a bit more negatively with the subconscious internalization of 'convicted criminal'. I think this may be more important than many give credence - what do you think these days?

A: I am trying — and it ain’t easy — to avoid drawing too many hard and fast conclusions about what the verdict means until we are a little further away from the actual verdict.

That said, the good data I have seen suggests there is a possibility that the verdict moved the needle — slightly — toward Biden. (Although Fox News polls released Thursday showed that Trump is running ahead in most swing states — and tied with Biden in Virginia.)

I will repeat what I have said about the verdict in the past: It doesn’t have to influence a lot of voters for it to matter, bigly, in the election. Why? Because the margins in a lot of these states — Wisconsin was decided by 20K votes in 2016 and 2020 — are so small that even a few thousand voters changing their minds because of the verdict could have an outsized impact.

Q: What is the breaking point for the GOP with Trump? If he loses yet another election, would that do it? If he loses the election and is then convicted in some or all of his other pending cases, would that do it? Or will the GOP nominate an imprisoned 81-year-old Trump in 2028 and try again with this habitual loser?