Friday mailbag

Questions. Answered.

(Ron DeSantis will enter the 2024 race next week)

We are less than a week away from two more people joining the 2024 Republican presidential race — with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott expected to get into the contest in the coming days.

Plus, the debt ceiling talks continue — even with President Joe Biden abroad.

Lots to talk about! Let’s get to your questions.

And a quick reminder: If you like this newsletter, share it!

Q: Love your writing! Do you think the current toxic political and societal environment is a direct result of the former administration or are those traits just inherent in some people? Are they looking (quite like religion IMHO) for “something to believe in”? (Poison – seems apropos 😊 )

A: Terrific Poison reference. My go-to song on the guitar, by the way, is “Every Rose has its Thorn.” Epic.

I do NOT think that our current political moment is due entirely to Donald Trump. I think the best way to understand him is as an accelerant of trends that were already out in the country.

If you look at polling over the last few decades, what you will see is a steady erosion in trust in institutions — from church to school to the business world. That declining trust in what once served as a sort of societal safety net has translated into a sense of untethered-ness in the populace.

People feel adrift. And that creates anxiety. That anxiety leads them to look for things to believe in — including people who promise them to make everything ok. Trump, during the 2016 campaign, essentially ran on a message that everything sucked now but he could fix it all if voters would just give him the chance. And he’s running on that same message now; the country is in the crapper and I alone can fix it.

Q: Just finished reading your book, Chris, and really enjoyed it! My question involves the 2024 election. You've said on several occasions what the Republicans must do to defeat Trump, and with few exceptions, they have yet to do it. What about Biden in the general election? What must he do to defeat Trump again in 2024? While to me, the choice is very clear, it seems as though nothing that Trump does impacts his supporters. Conversely, Biden's notable successes, especially given the razor thin majorities in the Congress, have not received the credit they deserve. What must Biden and the Democrats do to defeat Trump in 2024? Thank you!

A: Thanks for the kind words about the book. If people want to buy it (and you should!), just click here!

I think Biden’s task in a general election with Trump is to make the race as much a referendum on Trump as possible.

The simple fact — at least right now — is that voters don’t really like either of these guys. But polling suggests they like Trump less. And that’s especially true of electorally critical independent voters.

I don’t think Biden would do well to run heavily on his own record because on issues after issue — the economy, immigration, foreign policy — a majority of the American public disapproves of how he has handled things.

Better to keep the focus on Trump and his unpopularity.

Q: Will Ciquizza make a comeback?

A: Ciquizza forever!

I am in talks about a future podcast but — alas — it’s not quiz-show themed. More soon!

Q: Why don't more people talk about gerrymandering? It's a serious problem in many states and clearly has a huge (unfair!) impact on elections.

A: Totally agree!

I think the answer to your question is that it’s not a particularly sexy topic. You have to be WAY into politics to get fired up about the way the congressional district lines are drawn every time years in the wake of the census.

But, man, does it make a difference! It’s my contention that unless and until we change the electoral incentives for politicians, we are not going to get a different political system.

Right now — thanks in large part to gerrymandering — the incentive for politicians in both parties is to run to their base. (Most House seats are drawn in such a way that the only way an incumbent could lose is in a primary.) and yet we marvel at the fact that politicians seem uninterested in making compromises!

We need to change how we elect people. Which will change the sort of people we elect. And their imperatives once they are in office. And that — and only that — will change our politics.

Q: There must be a few members of Congress who are honest, hardworking, role models. Not fascists, not exploiting racial divisions, not lying regularly. Who are they, and why aren't they in the news as often as the crazies from one side or the other?

A: The VAST majority of Members of Congress, in my experience, are in politics for the right reasons and are doing their best to represent their constituents’ interests.

Why don’t they get more attention? Because we as a society are drawn to the loudest and most outlandish voices, not the people putting in the steady work day in and day out.

Blame it on human nature. But rest assured that 90% of Congress is doing it the right way. We just don’t hear about them.

Q: With Trump simultaneously steamrolling to the Republican nomination, while showing no interest or ability to appeal to a national electorate - why does Biden feel such pressure to run again? Seems like in a race where significant majorities do not want EITHER major party candidate to run, the party who can most seamlessly, and quickly, have a new standard bearer would have a clear advantage. Is Biden’s ego (or something else) doing real harm to his party?

A: It’s the belief of Biden and his team that no one else in the Democratic party can beat Trump. Which, of course, is a somewhat egotistical thing to say — but may also be true.

The Democratic bench seems like it’s at least an election away from being ready (or close to it) to win a national election. To me, California Gov. Gavin Newsom would step into the nomination the most seamlessly since he has spent significant time as a chief executive of a massive state. But, it’s not at all clear to me that Newsom would beat Trump.

Look, for all of Trump’s faults — and I agree he seems entirely uninterested in growing his vote beyond the Republican base — general election polling has him running basically even with Biden at this point. Which means he absolutely can win again.

I think Biden sees that data too. And sees his win in 2020 as evidence that he knows how to beat Trump — and that maybe no one else in the party can or does.

Q: Does money have as much effect on elections as the media suggests? Most ads are so poorly produced (both left and right) that I can’t imagine anyone being influenced by them. Almost every article on elections includes comments about the candidate’s money raising ability, suggesting it is more important than their policy positions.

A: Short answer: Yes.

Longer answer: Money isn’t determinative — especially at the presidential level — but you would ALWAYS prefer to be the candidate with more of it rather than less of it.

The issue is that without money voters may not know a) who you are or b) what your positions are on issues. Money funds paid communication — TV ads, radio ads, direct mail etc — that gets your name and your views out there to the general public.

So, yeah, money is THAT important in politics.

Q: Chris, love your work. Although, it seems unlikely that the debt ceiling will not be honored, it boggles my mind (at least) that the House R gang would risk the default given the almost certainty that every one of them would be voted out of office in 2024. Their constituents would probably be the most affected, so are they that ignorant? Do they really think that they would escape blame for the catastrophic consequences?

A: Thank you!

I would take issue with the idea that defaulting on the nation’s debt would be politically disadvantageous for most Republicans.

I mean, it might be — particularly if there were catastrophic consequences for the nation’s economy. But if the impacts were less than some people predicted, I could see Republicans who refused to negotiate on the debt be a feather in their political caps.

I know that seems crazy. But I think you have to consider that for a not-insignificant part of the Republican electorate, they want to blow everything up.

Just look at what Trump sent out via Truth Social this AM: Essentially that unless Democrats totally capitulated, Republicans should make NO deal at all.

Q: How optimistic or pessimistic are you at the end of this week concerning the odds of House Republicans and the Senate voting to approve an agreement to avoid the US defaulting on interest owed to Treasury bond purchasers by raising the National Debt Limit?

A: I think I am more pessimistic than most, to be honest. And I’d put you to two things that happened in the last 24 hours that make me feel justified in that position.

First, the House Freedom Caucus released a statement saying that Republicans should do no negotiating with the White House — that if Biden didn’t accept the House-passed spending bill whole hog, then there should be no compromise.

Second, the talks, which seemed to have been proceeding apace, suddenly hit a snag this morning — with Republicans calling for a pause.

I would suggest those two developments are intimately tied to one another. And, if I am right, then don’t be surprised if default becomes a very real possibility in the coming weeks.

Q: Hello Chris. How did you come about the phrase ''so what?''? What does it mean? Just wondering. Thanks!

A: Thanks for the question! I wrote a whole post explaining the name — and how I am trying to do something different in political journalism.

Q: If DeSantis or Trump win the nomination, should Democrats just write off Florida in 2024 and spend their money on states they have to win rather than a state they've shown they can win without? I think this would be the cycle to really go all in on NC and see if they can flip it.

A: In a memo they released earlier this week, the Biden campaign said they planned to contest Florida and North Carolina. I was a little surprised to be honest — especially about Florida.

To be clear: I don’t think that Florida is AS Republican as it voted in 2022. I think in a presidential election year, more of the Democratic base will come out. But, even so, it feels like a very heavy lift for Democrats to compete there.

And then there’s this to consider: Florida is MASSIVELY expensive to run a campaign in. There are a ton of media markets and it’s a multi-million dollar endeavor to run ads statewide. I think that, at the end of the day, the Biden campaign will see that price tag and the chances of a victory and look elsewhere.

North Carolina may wind up being the beneficiary of that spending decision. It’s expensive but not as expensive as Florida. And, politically speaking, I think Democrats have a slightly better chance in NC than in Florida.

Q: Will Ron DeSantis be a "serious" Republican nominee for President in 2024? Or is he really just setting himself up for a run for President in 2028?

A: I think he is a serious candidate for the nomination. But, he is also a considerable underdog to Donald Trump. Which would not have been the case had he gotten into the race in January or February.

By waiting, DeSantis ceded the field to Trump for months — and the former president took advantage of that vacuum. So now rather than being within shouting distance of Trump in national polls, DeSantis is down 30+ points.

It looks like his plan is to make Iowa the center of his campaign. DeSantis’ calculation appears to be that if he wins Iowa, it will fundamentally reorder the race.

I am more skeptical. Remember that Ted Cruz beat Trump in Iowa in 2016. Trump refused to concede and alleged cheating. He went on to cruise in New Hampshire anyway and then wrack up a serious of delegate wins on Super Tuesday.

What’s to say Trump won’t cry foul (again) if DeSantis wins Iowa? Breaking news: He will.

Q: Favorite novels about politics?

A: I will give you my all time favorite: “All the King’s Men.” It’s based on Louisiana’s Huey Long. And the protagonist is a reporter. It’s just an amazing book.

Q: Is part of the “why is no one primarying Biden” discourse simply having a generation of political reporters who’ve basically seen everything else? No one who has ever done it has actually won, and it’s been more than a generation since a politician tried (and in back to back cycles, where, especially in the first, there were unique circumstances).

A: I think that every four years there is some discussion of the incumbent president being challenged in a primary. It’s a perennial story that, like the idea of swapping running mates, never happens. But we still go through the motions.

I think that storyline has taken on heightened interest and importance because of a) Biden’s age and b) his weak poll numbers. There seems to be some lane for an alternative, which leads reporters to ask every ambitious Democrat if it’s something they would do.

All that said, we know from history it’s close to impossible to beat a sitting president in a primary. (See: 1980). And I think Biden is no different. I think you could get 30% of the vote relatively easily. But that next 20% would be incredibly challenging.

Q: How can we have a healthy center right party within the country again? Will there be a future beyond the 45th president for Republicans at some point?

A: Politics is a pendulum. So, yes, the pendulum will shift back away from the Trump wing of the party at some point in the future. It’s the way this stuff works.

That said, I am skeptical it happens any time soon. As long as Trump is alive, I think he is a dominant force within the party. Which is why I wrote yesterday about why no one should rule out Trump 2028.