Friday Mailbag! ✉️
Let's open the mail.
The easiest way to “win” in media today is simple: pick a side and tell your audience what it wants to hear. 🔥
But that’s not journalism.
I’m here to call balls and strikes — no matter who’s at the plate. ⚾
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Happy Friday!
We made it — and no civilizations died….this week.
Below are real questions from real paid subscribers to “So What” about the week that was in American politics — and where the heck we go from here.
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Let’s open the mail!
Q: For the past six weeks or so you’ve been fairly confident the Dems would win back both houses in November. But, in your latest analysis, you say you favor the Republicans to maintain their majority in the Senate. I would think that, with Trump’s horrific mismanagement of everything, flipping the Senate would be easier than you suggest. Why the change in sentiment? Love your content creation. 🫡
A: I don’t think I have ever said that I think Democrats are favored to win the Senate! If I did, I misspoke!
What I have said — and written about — is that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have shown Democratic chances surging in the last month or so.
But political prediction markets aren’t reality — at least not yet! The issues Democrats have are a) they need to NET four seats and b) there is only ONE Republican — Maine’s Susan Collins — running in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024.
Which doesn’t make winning the Senate majority impossible for Democrats. But it does mean that to win they are going to have to flip states that two years prior voted for Trump — often by double-digit margins.
If you missed my BRAND NEW rankings of the 10 Senate races most likely flip in November, you can check them out here.
Q: If the Iran peace talks collapse over Lebanon, will Trump really resume the war because of that little country?
