Have Senate Republicans *finally* learned their lesson?

What Montana means.

(Mitch McConnell was right.)

This, from Axios on Thursday, is pretty, pretty interesting:

Senate Republicans are close to recruiting Tim Sheehy, a decorated military veteran and successful businessman with the resources to self-finance a campaign, to run against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2024.

Sheehy, whom Republicans view as straight out of central casting, is being encouraged to run by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.), according to sources familiar with his efforts. The highly competitive race will help decide control of the Senate.

This matters for two reasons — one Montana-centric and the other with national implications.

1. Montana-centric. Until the emergence of Sheehy — a potential self-funder with a seemingly sparkling resume — it was assumed that either Rep. Matt Rosendale or Rep. Ryan Zinke would wind up as the Republican nominee. Neither of which looked to be a particularly good thing for Republicans’ chances. Zinke’s time at the Department of the Interior was full of controversy and investigations while Rosendale, an arch conservative, lost a very winnable race to Tester 5 years ago.

2. National: Daines has been unapologetic about his interest in helping to hand-pick nominees he believes give the party the best chance at winning general elections. "If I have heard one thing since the last election, a little over a month ago, Republicans are sick of losing, and we're gonna do whatever it takes to win,” Daines told Fox News in December 2022. “We want to make sure we have candidates that can win general elections.” This Sheehy recruitment appears to be Daines putting his money where his mouth has been.

It’s important to remember that a) Sheehy has never run for anything before and b) isn’t yet an announced candidate in the race. So, it’s possible that he’s an “A”-type recruit. It’s also possible he’s not. Or that he doesn’t ever actually run.

What’s more important, at least from my perspective, is Daines’ willingness to get his hands dirty in primaries.

It’s a MAJOR departure from how Florida Sen. Rick Scott handled the same job over the past two years.

Remember that Scott, during his time as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, had a very public position of refusing to engage in GOP primaries.

As the Washington Post wrote of Scott in April 2022:

Scott said he is committed to letting the primary process play out in early states, declining as a policy to get involved in any open-seat races and even approaching incumbent races with some delicacy.

That hands-off policy pissed off a number of longtime Republicans — most notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who repeatedly made reference to the quality of GOP candidates when asked about his worries about the party’s chances of winning back the majority in November 2022.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said in August 2022. “Senate races are just different — they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

Scott disputed the idea that Republicans had candidate issues; "Senator McConnell and I clearly have a strategic disagreement here,” Scott said. “We have great candidates.”

McConnell, however, proved to be prescient. In Arizona, first time candidate — and sayer of controversial things — Blake Masters underperformed in his race against Sen. Mark Kelly. In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz lost a Republican seat. In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc, who flirted with election denialism, lost. And, perhaps most notably, former NFL great Herschel Walker came up short against Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia.

“We ended up having a candidate quality test,” McConnell said in the wake of the 2022 election. “Look at Arizona. Look at New Hampshire. And the challenging situation in Georgia, as well.”

Added McConnell:

“Our ability to control the primary outcome was quite limited in ’22 because the support of the former president proved to be very decisive in these primaries. So my view was do the best you can with the cards you’re dealt. Now, hopefully, in the next cycle we’ll have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome.”

Daines — if his actions in Montana are any indication — seems to be fulfilling McConnell’s wishes.

The question, of course, remains as to whether former President Donald Trump decides to, again, involve himself in primaries. (Trump endorsed Walker, Masters and Oz among others; all won their primaries and lost the general election.)

What McConnell and Daines have to hope is that Trump is too focused on his own 2024 presidential bid to bother with wading in with primary endorsements that may run counter to who they believe is the best choice to win a general election.

(Trump, of course, is the ultimate wild card so predicting what he will or won’t do is a fool’s errand.)

But, Trump aside, give Daines credit. He is working hard to avoid the mistakes his party made in 2022 (and in 2010 and in 2012). Which gives Republicans a better chance at picking up the seats they need to win back the majority next November.