Is Kyrsten Sinema going to become a Republican?
It sure sounds like it.
Ever since Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic party — to become an independent — back in December, there’s been one overriding question surrounding her: What’s the ultimate plan here?
“Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” Sinema told Politico at the time, making clear that she wouldn’t caucus with Republicans.
Which, ok. The idea of Sinema as a political free agent — beholden to neither party — was understandably appealing to her.
Except that in a new interview with Politico, Sinema seems VERY down on the Democratic party — raising at least the possibility that she might wind up on the Republican side of the aisle before all is said and done in 2024.
The interview with Politico’s Jonathan Martin — one of the best political reporters out there — is a major eye-opener into Sinema’s thinking and psyche as she prepares to run for a 2nd term next year.
Among the quotes and anecdotes in the story:
Of the weekly Senate Democratic lunches: “Old dudes are eating Jell-O, everyone is talking about how great they are. I don’t really need to be there for that. That’s an hour and a half twice a week that I can get back.”
Sinema mentioned former Biden White House chief of staff Ron Klain and then made the middle finger gesture.
She derided Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer at a recent fundraiser
👀
It’s impossible to consider the Sinema quotes and other stories of her Democratic apostasy in the JMart story apart from pure political concerns.
Sinema’s political outlook is decidedly fuzzy. Consider:
She left the Democratic party because her willingness to buck the base had made her persona non grata — and she had no chance of winning a primary against Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is now in the race.
Polling conducted after she departed the Democratic party suggested Sinema would have a very hard time winning a general election with Gallego as the Democratic nominee and a credible Republican nominee.
No Republicans have announced for the race yet — although divisive 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake appears to be circling the race (much to the chagrin of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.)
Add it all up and you have a very interesting situation.
Sinema clearly is done with the Democratic party. Attacking Schumer and the broader caucus in public — and private — likely burns any bridges that could have been built (or re-built) between the two sides.
The real question now is whether Sinema would make the move to caucus with Republicans — either before or after the 2024 election, and, if so, what McConnell would do when it came to her reelection race.
This, from JMart’s story, speaks to McConnell’s current state of mind on that question:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who Sinema has assiduously courted, remains skeptical, however. Believing she remains a Democrat at heart, McConnell has focused on trying to recruit a non-controversial Arizona Republican into the race, somebody who could attract the moderate GOP voters and independents Sinema would need to win the purple state as an independent….
…Which all raises the question for McConnell: should his efforts to woo a mainstream Republican fail, would he be better off attempting to cut a deal with Sinema or hope a candidate like Lake can prevail in a three-way race against a current and former Democrat? One potential arrangement: Sinema could remain an independent but caucus with the Republicans in exchange for a ceasefire in spending from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and McConnell’s Super PAC.
Intriguing, no?
(Sidebar: One smart Republican operative I spoke to recently said that he believed that Lake would win a three-way race that also included Gallego and Sinema. So, keep that in mind too.)
All of these machinations are made more fascinating by the fact that a) Democrats currently have just a single-seat majority in the Senate and b) the 2024 map is incredibly good for Republicans, with three Democratic incumbents running in states that Donald Trump carried in 2020. (Plus Sinema running in a state Joe Biden won very narrowly.)
Given the closeness of the numbers in the Senate, what Sinema does — or, maybe more importantly, what McConnell and Lake do — is of critical import in the battle for the majority.
Sinema has, in the past, insisted that she “never really fit into a box of any political party.”
But, political necessity may well change that view. It’s very hard to see Sinema winning a 2nd term in a three-way race featuring Gallego and even a semi-credible Republican nominee. Her best chance, at this point, is to become the de facto Republican nominee — with the blessing of the national GOP.
Of course, some — maybe much — of that is out of her hands. McConnell and campaign boss Steve Daines of Montana have to decide what is the party’s strongest play is in the state. And even they have little control over what Lake, who is still contesting her 2020 gubernatorial loss, ultimately decides on the race.
It’s a LOT of moving parts, with control of the Senate on the line.
She explicitly ran as a progressive in 2018. That she is deeply unpopular with Democrats in Arizona is surprise zero given she has not in fact acted like a progressive Democratic Senator at all.
I think Republicans like her more as a spoiler that frustrates Democratic goals, rather than any notion of her as a Republican caucus voting person.
I don’t see her as a honorable or communicative candidate in any way. She barely will even say anything to her fellow senators let alone her constituents.
Her public statements are patently ridiculous and say little at all.
Sinema seems to be misjudging the politics in Arizona.
1. Wacko Lake will surely try again for some office in the state, most likely in the Senate, so she would have to primary among the MAGAts who might not take to a bisexual.
2. Does she think that progressive Dems would cross over to vote for her as a Republican candidate? If honest, they'd realize she wouldn't have any connections in her new party and little to no pull.
3. The Repubs would be wary that she couldn't be trusted to vote on their hard-core social "policies".
4. She probably realizes that she's pick-up a paltry amount of votes if she runs and an Independent, so she had better do some deep dives into the political winds.