Is Ron DeSantis blowing it?

Timing is everything in presidential politics.

(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

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In the wake of his crushing reelection victory in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed to have it all.

His battle against “wokeness” had drawn him national attention. Donors and activists were abuzz about his potential. And polling showed him running competitively with former President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Fast forward five months and things look a bit different for DeSantis.

“Ron DeSantis' donors and allies question if he's ready for 2024,” read a recent NBC News headline. The piece included these lines:

A number of the Florida governor’s donors and allies are worried his recent stumbles suggest he may not be ready for a brutal fight against Donald Trump. Some feel DeSantis needs to accelerate his timeline to run for the GOP presidential nomination and begin directly confronting Trump if he's to have any chance of thwarting the former president’s momentum. Others believe DeSantis should sidestep Trump altogether and wait until 2028 to run.

And then there’s this from conservative pundit Matt Lewis:

What’s the problem? Like pornography, you know it when you see it. His body language betrays him. He doesn’t look comfortable in his skin. His laugh seems creepy. These criticisms may seem superficial, but just ask Kamala Harris how politically damaging such perceptions can be.

Slaying a monster like Donald Trump requires a certain presence. But in his Piers Morgan interview, DeSantis comes across as a politician who wants to hit his talking points and prove logically why he’s superior to Trump. And the thing is, you don’t slay dragons with logic. You need guts, heart, and a razor-sharp sword (or, in this case, tongue).

And this from a recent New York Times profile of DeSantis on the campaign trail in Iowa:

His preference for policy over personality can make him seem awkward and arrogant or otherwise astonishing in person, depending on the voter and the success or failure of his one-on-one exchanges… DeSantis has leaned into his reputation as a political brawler, lacking the kind of warmth and charisma that helped lift Bill Clinton, John McCain and other politicians. Mr. DeSantis’s disregard for some of the typical pleasantries of politics can produce some uncomfortable moments.

Not great, Bob!

Look. Some of this is the natural vetting process that happens to every candidate as they prepare to enter a national race.

Lots of reporters start examining you very closely. Your circle of campaign advisers — and donors — necessarily starts to grow to the point where it’s harder and harder to control the message of any given day or week. You attract the attention of the other candidates in the race, who begin to knock you around a bit.

All of that is pretty normal. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be destructive and even hamstring your campaign.

The Republican road is littered with supposed stars who flamed out under the bright lights of a national campaign. Rick Perry. Scott Walker. Marco Rubio. Hell, Rudy Giuliani.

All of them started out as The Next Big Thing. And not one came anywhere near winning the Republican nomination.

DeSantis isn’t there yet. But there are starting to be some overrated vibes coming off of him that bear a striking resemblance to some of the names I mentioned above.

Given the questions that are now surrounding DeSantis, it may be worth him reexamining his decision to stay out of the race until the Florida legislative session ends later this spring.

At the start of the year, that move seemed a wise one. DeSantis was unquestionably the momentum candidate in the Republican race with polls showed him running close to Trump and donors and activists falling all over themselves to get him to run.

Teasing such a bid — even while putting the pieces in place to be ready to hit the ground running in mid-May — only stoked that excitement, not to mention adding to DeSantis’ allure. (Playing hard to get works in politics — and in life.)

But, circumstances have clearly changed for DeSantis. Staying out of the race has done a few things to him — none of them good.

1. Trump has seeded the Republican ground with attacks on DeSantis — from his usual nickname game ("Meatball Ron,” “Ron DeSanctimonious”) to questions over the governor’s past support for cutting Medicare and Social Security. That has slowed DeSantis’ polling momentum considerably.

2. The second guessers in DeSantis’ ever-widening group of advisers has a) grown and b) become more vocal. This is one of the challenges of a presidential race that doesn’t usually happen in a statewide race. You add all sorts of smart people to help you on the policy and politics (and money!) fronts. Which is good!

   But, those people have opinions. And they also usually have connections to some national reporters, connections they can use to get their thoughts out into the public. Which is how you get a story like the one NBC ran in which DeSantis’ allies(!) are suggesting — without their names attached, of course — that he should get into the race sooner than planned or skip the contest entirely, leaving the field wide open for Trump.

Now. All of this hand-wringing and consternation could well wind up being a moot point if, once he’s in the race, DeSantis shows he has the stuff to run for president. If that happens, these early doubts will be dismissed as the carping of nervous nellies — nothing more.

But, in my experience, the cliche where there’s smoke, there’s fire tends to be true in politics. Meaning that if there is some skittishness within DeSantis world, it’s more likely than not at least somewhat warranted.

I am very skeptical these early doubts keep DeSantis out of the 2024 race, however. He’s clearly a major player in this race and there’s simply no guarantee that in 4 years he would have that same positioning for the next primary fight.

But, ignoring these early warning signs would be a mistake too. Little problems often grow into big problems if not addressed — and quickly.