Is today Mike Johnson's last day as Speaker? 💀
Math.
Speaker Mike Johnson has a math problem.
To be reelected as the leader of the House on Friday, he needs to win a simple majority of the members voting. Which is going to be tough.
Consider this: We expect there to be 434 voting members tomorrow, with former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz’s resignation. (There will be 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats.)
Which means Johnson need 218 votes to be Speaker again.
As of this moment, we know of only one Republican member — Kentucky Rep. Tom Massie — who has said he is planning to vote for someone other than Johnson. (ABC has reported there are as many as 15 members who are undecided on the Speaker vote.)
Assuming Massie goes through with a vote against Johnson, the Louisiana Republican can afford to lose a total of ZERO more votes if he wants to be Speaker again.
If Massie and another Republican member vote for someone other than Johnson, then Johnson is down to 217 votes — 50% but not a majority of the House. And he would lose.
There is one other scenario whereby Johnson could win. Let’s say Massie votes against Johnson. And another member, like, say, unpredictable Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, votes “present.”
A “present” vote would technically reduce the number of voting members to 433. Which would mean that 217 Republicans vote for Johnson, one votes for someone else and one votes “present.” And 217 would be a simple majority of the 433 voting members. He would be reelected as Speaker.
Johnson loses under any other scenario.
Speaking of scenarios, I broke down a WHOLE bunch of them — including whether Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries could wind up as Speaker and whether the January 6 counting of the electoral votes could be postponed — in a video for my YouTube channel. If you haven’t subscribed to it yet, now is the time!
I am headed out of town tomorrow AM so posting will be light for the next few days — although I absolutely will have something for you once we know whether Johnson survives tomorrow’s vote.
Thanks as always for your support. If you aren’t a paid subscriber yet, I hope today is the day that changes!
Off topic, but a closer look at the 'selfie' picture you posted appears to show Trump without his comb-over, weave, dead ferret, or whatever he puts on his bulbus sphere to ensure that 'central casting' look.
Wonder if he knows this is floating around? This sould sink Johnson faster than policies....
My guess is that Both President Musk and Co-President Trump are burning up the phone lines today with “undecided “ members of the Republican caucus. Promises will be made, money will change hands, and very likely Johnson will be elected Speaker.