Joe Biden's new strategy: Savage Trump

Will it work?

Scrolling through my email inbox this morning, I came across an interesting headline from Axios: “Biden wants to go for Trump's jugular.”

Intrigued, I read on. Here’s the key bit:

President Biden is privately pushing for a much more aggressive approach to 2024: Go for Donald Trump's jugular… Biden is convinced he'll rattle Trump if he taunts him daily…Biden has told friends he thinks Trump is wobbly, both intellectually and emotionally, and will explode if Biden mercilessly gigs and goads him — "go haywire in public," as one adviser put it.

Which is very interesting!

I have been thinking — and writing — about the best way for Biden to run a general election campaign for a while now. I think it is a critical decision — especially when you consider both candidates are universally known and each has major problems that are equally known. (Biden’s issue is his age; Trump’s is his legal problems/ corruption.)

Given that — and the fact that most experts expect the race to be very close — the campaigns each candidate runs will matter.

The question for Biden is — and always will be — do you stoop to Trump’s level or do you try to stay above the fray at least somewhat?

This latest reporting from Axios suggests that the candidate is a fan of the former approach — although I still think it remains to be seen whether the campaign ultimately goes down that road.

The appeal of a campaign to savage Trump is obvious — and there is at least some strategic backing for it as well.

Biden clearly loathes the former president. When he speaks about Trump’s comments on people serving in the military or the former president’s role in the January 6 insurrection, Biden’s words drip with disdain and incredulity.

That feeling is shared by the Democratic base — in spades. There is nothing Biden could say about Trump that would be a bridge too far for the base. They want Trump’s blood — figuratively if not literally — on the floor during this race.

A strategy that aimed to cast Trump as an old, failing and flailing then could well enliven a Democratic base that needs a bit of a shot in the arm.

That said, a campaign strategy in which Biden sets as his goal to get down in the mud with Trump on competence issues has its risks. I see two main ones:

1. The history of candidates trying to match Trump attack for attack is not particularly encouraging. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio spent 48 hours during the 2016 primary campaign doing his best to submarine Trump (he attacked the billionaire’s hand size) only to abandon that strategy and eventually apologize for it. Hillary Clinton tried to make the 2016 campaign a referendum on Trump — and lost.

The issue for Biden (or ANY candidate) in attacking Trump is that you will NEVER go lower than him. He will always be willing to say things you won’t. (Ted Cruz’s wife is ugly! Hillary Clinton is hiding a terminal illness from the public!)

Then there’s this: Trump is regarded by a big chunk of the public as a celebrity first and a politician second. Which means that they have are willing to tolerate things from him that they would NEVER tolerate from a politician. (Attacking veterans! Saying he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes!)

Biden doesn’t have that same standard. He is judged not just as a politician but as the president. And while people seemed entirely cool with allowing Trump — even as president! — to say and do all manner of outrageous things, they do not extend that same tolerance to Biden (or any other politician.)

Meaning that there is a potential boomerang effect for Biden, with attacks on Trump coming back to hurt him if people believe them to be beneath the office he holds. (And, yes, it is ridiculous that people don’t and didn’t feel the same about Trump. But here we are!)

2. Biden appears to want to go after Trump on competence (and tangentially age) issues. Again, Axios: “Biden has told friends he thinks Trump is wobbly, both intellectually and emotionally, and will explode if Biden mercilessly gigs and goads him.”

To spend considerable time and energy going after Trump as unstable and incompetent would, inevitably, put the discourse on Biden’s age and competency front and center as well.

And I am not sure if Biden wins that one. While I know the Democratic base — and some Never Trumpers — are convinced that Trump is failing mentally and has dementia, I don’t know that a fight over age/competency is the ground on which Biden and his team want to fight this election.

Like it or not — and I know many of my readers don’t like it! — a considerable majority of voters think Biden is too old to do the job of president. And while a decent number of people say the same of Trump, it’s a smaller group.

Whether you like that or not — or think it’s the media fault (ridiculous!) — those are the facts. And that reality isn’t likely to change all that much between now and November. (Biden isn’t going to get any younger!)

So, yes, a “savage Trump” strategy might be what candidate Biden wants to do. (And it’s generally smart to lean into what a candidate wants to say and do because they come across as most authentic when carrying a message they really believe.)

BUT, no strategy comes without a potential downside. And the downsides for this “savage Trump” strategy are considerable for Biden, who is already struggling to make the case to the public for why he deserves a 2nd term.

Decisions like these are what make or break presidential campaigns. And they are very rarely 80-20 choices. They are all almost always 51-49 choices. This is no exception.