Every Friday, I do a mailbag post where I answer questions from the “So What?” community.
I love doing it because of the diversity of questions that come through the pipeline — everything from 2024 handicapping to Senate races to writing this newsletter.
So, have at it. The comments section is open for your questions!
Hey Chris! With all of the news surrounding former CIA Agent / Author / Financier / Pastry Chef / Broadway Star George Santos (will he resign: probably not, will he be expelled: unlikely in my opinion), it got me thinking about politics in New York. I live in Santos' district...lucky me to have him "representing" us!
I believe that Biden carried Santos' NY District (District 3) by 8 points in 2020. In 2022, Santos (NY-3) and Anthony D'Esposito (NY-4) in a neighboring Long Island District were among the key flips that contributed to Republicans gaining control of the house in the 2022 Elections.
Two parts to this question!
1) If Santos somehow resigns or is expelled, NY-3 would hold a special election. Do you think it likely that this seat flips back to the Democrats in such a situation, especially if they manage to run someone credible such as Suozzi?
2) New York has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, but do you think it will enter the "toss-up" category any time soon? Kathy Hochul barely defeated longtime NY-1 Rep Lee Zeldin in the Gubernatorial Race. New York City (aside from Staten Island) is generally as blue as ever. Long Island, however, which if it were its own state would be something like the 13th-most populous state, is shifting more and more to the right. Could this put NY in play by 2028?
Love your writing! Do you think the current toxic political and societal environment is a direct result of the former administration or are those traits just inherent in some people? Are they looking (quite like religion IMHO) for “something to believe in”? (Poison – seems apropos 😊 )