Mike Johnson Wins! (Sort of)

What the hell just happened?

(Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

Mike Johnson is, for now, the Speaker of the House in the 119th Congress. And he won that job on the first ballot (sort of)!

So:

a) How did we get here?

b) Where do we go from here?

The answer to “a” is a lot simpler.

We knew, going into today’s Speaker’s vote that Johnson faced a tough math problem. There were 434 voting Members — once Matt Gaetz’s resignation became formal just after noon eastern; 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. Which meant that for Johnson to win the Speakership, he needed 218 votes — all of which would come from Republicans.

And we knew that Kentucky Rep. Tom Massie wasn’t going to vote for Johnson. Meaning that if he lost even one more GOP vote, he would not win.

On the first round of voting, a few things happened.

First, six Republican members — all of whom are associated with the House Freedom Caucus — didn’t vote when their names were called. They were: Andy Biggs of Arizona, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, Mike Cloud of Texas, Paul Gosar of Arizona, Andy Harris of Maryland and Chip Roy of Texas.

Second, three House members voted for someone other than Johnson: Massie, who voted for Tom Emmer, Ralph Norman (voted for Jim Jordan) and Keith Self (Byron Donalds).

Which meant that 9 total Republicans had either not voted or voted against Johnson. That number is interesting because 9 is the number of House Republicans necessary to call a motion to vacate the Speakership — the process by which Matt Gaetz (and others) ousted Kevin McCarthy last year.

That seems to me not an accident. More like a message to Johnson: We’re watching — and we’ve got enough numbers to make your life very uncomfortable.

Once the entire roll call had been, er, called, the six Members who hadn’t voted all decided to vote for Johnson.

The assumption then was that Johnson had failed to secure the Speaker’s job on the first ballot, and that a second ballot would be necessary.

Except…as longtime Capitol Hill watchers noted, no vote is over until it is gaveled closed. And this one wasn’t.

As time ticked by, it became clear something was up. Then Johnson left the floor with Cloud and Norman, two of the three men who had voted against him in the first round.

Less than 10 minutes later, they re-emerged. Norman and Cloud approached the House clerk, who tabulates the votes, and changed their votes to “Johnson.” Which gave the Louisiana Republican 218 votes. And he was the Speaker — for now.

How did that happen? Three words: Donald John Trump.

But, as if to affirm the frailty of Johnson’s position, Chip Roy, who has been a vocal critic of the Speaker, took to X to make clear that his vote was conditional, at best.

And Roy was one of 11 signers of a letter to Johnson released shortly after the vote in which they made clear they remained unhappy.

“We did this despite our sincere reservations regarding the Speaker’s track record over the past 15 months,” they wrote of their votes for Johnson, adding that he now needed to “prove he will not fail to enact President Trump’s bold agenda.”

All of which brings us to “b” above: Where do we go from here?

Because here’s what hasn’t changed: Republicans control 219 seats while Democrats hold 215. And that majority is going to get even thinner as some of President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees — like New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and Florida Rep. Michael Waltz — are confirmed.

In fact, given the math, it’s possible that today is the best day of Johnson’s speakership of this Congress. Because the people who signed that letter don’t seem to grasp (or care) that when you have a majority that small, you have to compromise. And the chances of just doing whatever you want — in terms of a conservative agenda — are simply very small.

Johnson bears the brunt of the blame for that reality. Which is unfair. But it’s also a fact.

Is it possible he makes it through the next two years without an attempt on his Speakership? Sure! Do I think that’s the most likely scenario? I do not.

Johnson deserves credit for today. He won on a single ballot — albeit it a loooong vote. But, he won. And that’s the name of the game.

But, man, it is very complicated path he needs to walk. And, to my mind, a near-impossible one.

That said, Johnson now gets the chance to walk it. Which is all he wanted out of today.