Mike Johnson's life (still) sucks

Speaker Agonistes.

I’ve kept my focus mostly on the presidential race over the last few weeks. Because, well, it matters the most.

But, I can’t let today pass without diverting to the clusterf)*&^S that is House Republicans — and specifically Speaker Mike Johnson.

(Sidebar: I try not to swear because my mother-in-law reads this newsletter. And she doesn’t like when I do.)

If you haven’t been following things in Congress, let me give you the quick update: They need to pass legislation to fund the government — or run the risk of a government shutdown on September 30.

The House will do this. Because shutting down the government would be a colossally dumb thing to do, politically speaking, with less than 6 weeks left before the 2024 election.

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But it’s the HOW they will keep the government open that is revealing — about both the state of the GOP and just how miserable Johnson’s life is.

Go back to earlier this month. Johnson began the negotiations on the government-funding bill by insisting that a) it be a long-term measure to avoid these relentless short-term, stop-gap measures and b) any legislation include a provision that anyone registering to vote had to show proof of citizenship.

Hard line!

Also, worth noting: People who are not U.S. citizens already can’t vote. But I digress…

The problem? Well, most obviously, Democrats were never going to sign onto legislation that mandated proof of citizenship when registering to vote.

Which meant that Johnson would have to keep almost every one of his 220 Republicans in line.

And therein lies the rub! (This phrase comes from Shakespeare — “Hamlet” in particular. Which I did not know!)

We’ve seen this story before. The Republican House conference simply cannot be united around, well, much of anything. The fiscal hawks in the House shot down ANY attempt at compromise with Democrats (and even the more establishment wing of their party) that didn’t include major spending cuts.

A week ago, 14 Republicans joined with Democrats to tank Johnson’s plan. And before that, Johnson pulled the bill from the floor for fear it would fail. He was right!

Which brings us back, today, to the same place we have been twice before during Johnson’s very-brief speakership: He will rely on Democratic votes to pass something — and keep the government open.

This, from Axios, speaks to how little fear (or loyalty) Johnson inspires in the GOP ranks:

It used to be unthinkable for a GOP speaker to call a vote in which they couldn't win a majority of the majority of their party members on a vote. But Johnson has failed that test twice this year.

This time around, GOP leaders are privately optimistic they can meet the bar of 111 of their 220 members voting to avoid a government shutdown.

They might be able to get a bare majority of Republicans to vote for it! Hooray!

Like, WHAAAAAT?????

It’s easy to blame Johnson for this. But I think that misses the point.

Remember how Johnson got the job in the first place; the Trump-aligned Freedom Caucus pushed Kevin McCarthy out for being insufficiently conservative — or something.

And Paul Ryan walked away from the Speakership because it was impossible to wrangle the majority. Ditto John Boehner.

The point here is that Republicans have — and have had — a majority in name only in the House for a while now. Combine the narrowness with which they hold the chamber — there are 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats right now — and the lack of any real internal cohesion about a) what the party is and b) what it should be and you have a recipe for political disaster.

There is not ONE person in the Republican party — except maybe Donald Trump — who could keep these people in line.

Which doesn’t mean you should feel bad for poor old Mike Johnson. He knew exactly what he was getting into. I mean, he had to step over the corpse of McCarthy’s political career to take the Speaker’s gavel!

Did Johnson think that maybe — just maybe — he could make the GOP work even though the previous three people who held his job couldn’t? Of course he did!

But, we are, in life, usually the rule, not the exception. And Mike Johnson succumbed (and is succumbing) to the exact same political realities that brought his predecessors down.

Will he stay on as Speaker if Republicans hold the House in November? Hard to say! If the GOP picks up 20 seats and stuns the political world, then maybe? But to me Johnson is sort of a dead man walking. I can’t imagine he’s the Speaker by the 2026 midterms. (I have been wrong before!)

And, of course, if Johnson does go, there will be a line of ambitious aspirants waiting to be next in line to take his job. How will whoever claims the mantle do after he or she wins?

You know how they say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? Yeah.