Mike Pence's campaign is already dead

Oomph.

(Former Vice President Mike Pence)

A new poll of of Iowa Republicans over the weekend spell t-r-o-u-b-l-e for Mike Pence and his already-longshot candidacy for the Republican nomination.

The poll put Pence in 6th place with just 4% of the vote in a state — more than 40 points behind poll leader Donald Trump.

And that wasn’t even the worst thing in the poll for him. That was this: Almost 4 in 10 (37%) of Iowa Republican voters said they would NEVER vote for him. That was 15% higher than said the same of any other candidate (Trump at 22% never vote for).

And it’s not just in Iowa where Pence is having problems. According to the Washington Post, he has still not crested the 40,000 donor threshold to qualify for next month’s first presidential debate — a remarkable sign of weakness for a man who spent four years as the vice president of the United States.

As the Post reported:

While Pence’s advisers are emphatic that he will make the debate stage, the mere uncertainty is emblematic of the early challenges the Indiana Republican is confronting in his nascent campaign. Pence has struggled to gain attention or traction by running a traditional and low-key conservative campaign in a race dominated by firebrands like Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Vice presidents typically enter their party’s nominating contest as strong contenders if not front-runners. Yet Pence is registering well behind Trump and DeSantis and much closer to long-shot candidates like tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, while also being far outraised by his rivals.

Pence raised just over $1 million for his campaign in the month (or so) he was in the race — massively behind the likes of Trump and DeSantis but also well back of Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. Hell, unknown North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum raised more than Pence in the 2nd fundraising period.

None of this should come as much of a surprise.

Pence is a man caught betwixt and between. He is desperately trying to run as a Trump conservative, touting the time he spent in the White House and what was accomplished there.\

The problem is that Trump turned Pence into enemy #1 for the Republican base, casting him as a villain for opposing the overturning of the 2020 election.

(Remember that rioters in the U.S Capitol were chanting “Hang Mike Pence!”)

Trump’s relentless campaign to cast Pence as the man who betrayed the Republican base has clearly worked.

That explains why four in 10 Republicans say they would never vote for a man who, by all accounts, followed the letter of the law on January 6, 2021 by certifying the electoral college vote.

Pence almost certainly knew the challenge he was up against when he decided to run for president. And he likely decided that, despite those hurdles, he would run anyway — likely because if he didn’t run now, he would be 8 years out of office in 2028 and look very much like yesterday’s news. (Pence will also be 69 years old in 2028.)

But, he likely believed he could overcome those challenges — with an appeal to social and evangelical conservatives who have long been his base.

The problem for Pence is that a calculation like that is entirely based on the pre-Trump version of the Republican party where a) an evangelical lane exists b) that lane was prized and c) that lane could win someone the Iowa caucuses.

That all changed when Trump won the Republican nomination. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to change back any time soon — and certainly not over the lifetime of this campaign.

In short: Pence’s campaign is dead. He just doesn’t know it yet.

The real questions for Pence are:

1. When does he get out of the race?

2. Who does he endorse?

On the first question, I’ve written in the past about how critical it is to get out of the race at the right time. That’s especially true in this race where Trump is the dominant force and all the other candidates are vying to be his alternative.

The longer Pence — and his single-digit support nationally and in early states — stays in the race, the harder it is to consolidate support behind a non-Trump candidate.

(Of course, at this rate, Pence’s hand may well be forced; with such paltry fundraising numbers, it’s uniquely possible he simply runs out of money and has to bow out.)

My guess is that Pence is pushing like crazy to qualify for the 1st debate. If he can’t get to the 40,000 donor threshold, his campaign is over. Even if he does qualify for the debate but fails to generate any real excitement behind his candidacy, I would guess he is out in September or early October.

The question of who — if anyone — Pence might endorse when if he drops out is an intriguing one.

Presumably Trump is off the table given, you know, the whole stolen election thing. The obvious choice given Pence’s social conservatism and penchant for optimism is Tim Scott, the South Carolina Senator who has begun to make waves in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Would a Pence endorsement help Scott? Sure, in that it would signal to donors and activists looking for a Trump alternative that Scott is the best choice.

At this point — and given how poorly he has started in the race — that may be the extent of Pence’s legacy and footprint.

Which is a remarkable comedown for a man who stood one heartbeat from the presidency for four years.