Mike Pence's kamikaze mission?
Mike Pence (maybe) finds a strategy.
On Saturday night at the the Gridiron Dinner — the clubbiest and chummiest of Washington’s annual gathering of pols and the media who cover them — Mike Pence laid the smack down on former president Donald Trump.
“History will hold Donald Trump accountable for January 6,” said Pence. “Make no mistake about it: What happened that day was a disgrace, and it mocks decency to portray it in any other way. President Trump was wrong. His reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day.”
Which, for any pol, are harsh words. But for the decidedly mild-mannered Pence, they amount to a declaration of war — especially coming just days after Fox News’ Tucker Carlson attempted to whitewash the events of January 6 as less violent and less shocking than they actually were.
Pence’s words land in a context in which two things are true:
He is going to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024
It’s not at all clear what his place is in the race and/or how he will appeal to Republican voters.
It’s possible that Pence’s words over the weekend give us some much-needed insight into that second point — the “how” of his candidacy.
I’ve been baffled for months about where Pence fits into this race. And the way I have been thinking about it is that he’s caught in a bit of no man’s land.
I played tennis in high school so let me draw on a tennis metaphor here. There are two types of players — baseliners and serve and volleyers. You are either battling it out with ground strokes from the baseline or trying to win points at the net.
The place you don’t want to be in tennis is in between those two spots. Why? Because the ball is forever landing at your feet, forcing uncomfortable and unlikely shots.
That’s where Pence appears to be in this race. He’s not Trump. And because of his role in (rightly) certifying the 2020 presidential election, the Trumpist base of the party is adamantly opposed to him.
But, he’s also not able to get entirely away from Trump either. Unlike Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example, who can run on his years of accomplishments against the “woke” agenda in his state, Pence’s accomplishments are almost entirely tied up in his time serving as Trump’s #2.
Pence then is neither Trump nor entirely his own person. And that makes a presidential campaign a decidedly difficult proposition — especially when your former boss is running!
But, what if Pence decided — as indicated by his harsh words for Trump over the weekend — that he will run what amounts to a kamikaze mission against the former president, doing whatever it takes to keep the former president away from the GOP nomination?
There’s a plausible argument here. Pence’s greatest gift as a politician is that people believe him to be principled — someone who has a core set of values and beliefs from which he won’t waver.
And, because of the central role he played on January 6 — and the danger to him and his family as a result (some of the rioters were chanting “Hang Mike Pence!”) — the former vice president would be speaking from a unique position of authority.
If Pence then chose to make it his mission to argue to Republican primary voters that Trump’s actions on January 6 (and in the days leading up to it) are fundamentally disqualifying, there’s a case to be made that he could be persuasive — at least to some of them.
The problem from Pence’s perspective? Kamikaze missions don’t work out too well for the guy flying the plane. Pence might be able to hurt Trump’s chances at being the nominee — MAYBE — but it’s hard to see how such a strategy would actually accrue to his own benefit.
(As Adam Wren and Tom LoBianco point out, Pence could also be trying to pivot to make a a sort of adult-in-the-room argument to GOP voters, which would, at least. in. theory, give him more of a chance top actually win, than the kamikaze mission.)
Now, it’s important to remember this too: A single speech in front of the Washington political and media elites doesn’t maker a campaign strategy.
As The Bulwark’s Amanda Carpenter points out:
To date, Pence has been like all of the other 2024 contenders — handling Trump with kid gloves in hopes of not pissing off him or, more importantly, his supporters.
Does the Gridiron speech then represent a real shift in strategy for Pence or a one-off designed to get the DC political media on his side? How Pence acts over the next few months should answer that question for us.
re: Mannequin Mike
"Pence then is neither Trump nor entirely his own person." Chris, this is a generous understatement.
As an adopted Hoosier, I arrived in Indiana during St. Pence's term as governor. He proved to be a lead-from-behind kind of pol, only "leading" on policy wants from his cringeworthy aChristian supporters sanitized of Jesus's tenets. He never proved during his one term as governor and as Veep to be his own person.
Case in point:
He and Mother were vociferous in favor of Indiana's extremely controversial "Religious Freedom Restoration Act"— drafted by the Republican-dominated Indiana legislature and championed by Pence at the behest of his religious supporters.
The act immediately touched off a strong online campaign against it as well as a series of protests at the Statehouse.
High-profile Indiana businesses, such as Salesforce.com and Angie's List with thousands of employees, spoke out about rethinking expansion plans in the state, or potentially leaving. A number of slated conventions were scraped. The Act cost the economy millions of dollars in convention revenue and potentially thousands of jobs.
Appearing on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," at that time, Pence declined over and over again to answer the question of whether the law made it legal to discriminate.
The firestorm of opposition that followed in the state and across the country included past Indiana Republican and Democratic governors, university presidents of the state, CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, professional sports figures, civil rights leaders, many (true) Christian church leaders, and prominent celebrities forced spineless Mike's hand.
A bill was drafted and overwhelmingly passed by the legislature to provide protections for LGBT customers, employees, and tenants. Mother Pence saw the handwriting on the wall and told her husband to sign it. Only anti-Jesus Christian groups and other extremely right-wing religious zealots opposed the bill that became law.
In 2016, with Mannequin Mike losing a reelection run for by double digits to a virtually unknown Democrat, a lifeline was thrown to him when Trump (seeing the malleability of Pence) offered the probable loser the role as Veep.
Considering that Pence never had a drafted piece of legislation get out committee, much less voted on during his 10 years in the House prior to being governor, it is no wonder that he has so little support in his bid for the ReTrumplican't nomination because of original policy ideas.
On a tangential note: I wonder how anyone with the brains to acquire the wealth to donate to his campaign would waste their money doing so.
God bless Amanda Carpenter.
Maybe Pence just has nothing better to do. Don’t know if it’s true, but I remember hearing that Trump saved him from political oblivion because he was going to lose the governor’s race.
If the rightwing zealots in Indiana didn’t want him, I don’t see what chance he has in primaries or a general election of any kind.
I’m very happy he didn’t get hanged. OTOH, I’ll gladly watch his continuing humiliation of himself. Because apparently 4 years of groveling wasn’t enough for him. That’s a strange form of Christianity he practices.