Monday mailbag!

Your questions, answered.

(A mailbox)

I landed back in DC late Sunday night after four days of funeral services for my late father-in-law.

It was a very busy few days and I didn’t get to the Friday mailbag as soon as I would have liked. But, now that I am back, I wanted to answer your questions. So, let’s do this!

And, as always, if you don’t already subscribe to the newsletter — or want to move from a free to a paid subscription — you can do that here:

Q: In light of Trump's recent indictment, do you think Mitch McConnell is kicking himself for having found a loophole to acquit Trump in his 2nd impeachment? If he hadn't pushed the "you can't impeach someone who is already out of office" idea so hard, do you think Trump would have been impeached, found guilty, and barred from holding public office again? And how much time/money/grief would that have saved, for the whole country to be able to move forward and leave Trump behind?

A: Good question and a good way to start.

I think that McConnell, in his heart of hearts, believed two things to be true: 1) Trump bore massive responsibility for what happened on January 6, 2021 and 2) You can’t impeach someone who is already out of office.

Given that, I DON’T think that McConnell would change anything if he had the chance to go back and do it all over. That said, would it make his life now much easier if Trump had been banned from running for office again? Um, yes.

The issue McConnell (and all other establishment pols) have is that the base (still) loves Trump. And no politician purposely does things to get crosswise with the party base. McConnell has gone about as far as any GOP pol (who’s still in office!) of making clear his disdain for Trump. But, that only extends so far. McConnell is not going to fully break with Trump because he still cares about what the base thinks of him.

Q: Trump was indicted. The indictment has not been unsealed yet. I think the charges will be a surprise, maybe for threatening a DA or inciting violence over this case, or even trying to influence a grand jury. The actual fraud case does not seem to be a slam dunk deal. Trumps reaction was very predictable and probably excessive and that will be easy to prove.

A: I mean, maybe?

It seems to me this indictment is pretty straightforward: The grand jury thinks it has evidence that Trump paid illegal hush money to Stormy Daniels (and maybe to Karen McDougal too) to keep them quiet in the run-up to the 2016 election about relationships they had with Trump.

Obviously, Trump has other legal problems too. The Washington Post reported this morning that the Justice Department may well have evidence that Trump obstructed the search for classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. And the investigation into his actions in Georgia following the election remains ongoing too.

I suspect that by the time it’s all said and done, Trump may well be indicted several times. And I am not sure that keeps him from the Republican nomination. In fact, I think it might well help him win it.

Q: Are there any MAGA Republicans that are embarrassed by the fact that their 'leader' seems to be saying that the Republican Party is so unclever that the Democrats have been able to outsmart them in numerous separate states and separate elections? I'd be ashamed to admit that I was beaten so many times because someone was smarter than me.

A: I have always wondered about that part of the Trump “we were cheated” argument. And, the former president often regularly says that Democrats are really good at sticking together and Republicans stink at it.

Remember that Trump’s rise was fueled not just by his critique of Democrats but also his willingness to go after the old guard of the Republican party too — especially the Bushes.

What Trump realized was that there is a significant chunk of the Republican base who is very sick of its politicians — and not only will tolerate criticism of how Republicans go about their business but welcomes it.

I think that’s how he gets away with it — because there’s a big chunk of Republican base voters who DO believe their party is dumb and naive and keep getting taking advantage of.

Q: How do you think this country can move from tearful “thoughts and prayers” to policy and action? Why do we as a country tolerate the “collateral damage” of young children being murdered in schools, which are supposed to be safe places? Why does the abstract “right” to own as many weapons of war as one wants trump the victims’ right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?

A: At present, I see no path forward to major gun control legislation. Republicans who control the House have made clear that they do not believe more restrictions on guns is the solution to our nation’s gun violence problem.

We have, unfortunately, grown numb to the number of mass shootings in this country. It’s by now a familiar cycle: Thoughts and prayers, calls for meaningful gun legislation and then a fading of that energy and anger with little accomplished,

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Q: Who do you think will replace Senator Dianne Feinstein?

A: A Democrat.

Ha!

I figure you want something a little more specific, right? I DO think the most likely outcome is two Democrats in the general election (California has a bit of a wacky election system.)

Who is that? I tend to think Adam Schiff — thanks to his money and name identification — is likely to get one of those general election spots. Who gets the other between Katie Porter and Barbara Lee? I genuinely don’t know.

Both women are campaigning as the leading liberal in the race — and both have the bona fides to make a credible case on that front. Lee, as an African American woman, may have a slight edge just given the demographics of California, may have a slight edge.

But, the race is very much in its infancy. Lotsa can and will change in the coming year-plus.

Q: When will the Texas Democratic Party matter again?

A: I think the Texas Democratic party does matter right now. But I think your question is actually this: When will Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning statewide in Texas again?

That’s a tough question to answer. A decade ago, I would have thought Democrats might be on the verge of winning a major statewide race today. But, Hispanics in the state, who were at one point trending strongly toward Democrats, have become much more of a swing voting bloc — making the math tougher for Democrats.

Rep. Colin Allred, who is looking at a race against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, is a serious and solid candidate — if he runs. But, in a presidential year, he would start off as a clear underdog against Cruz.

Could I see Democrats winning a governor’s race or a Senate race this decade in Texas. Sure. Do I think it’s likely right now? No.

Q: Chris, what do you think happens to the Republican party if Trump is the nominee in 2024 and loses again to President Biden? Even though he would be older, it doesn't seem to me that he would go away quietly. Are we so sure he won't run again in 2028 if he loses in 2024?

A: Oh boy — I hadn’t even considered that. But, I think you’re right — there’s no reason to believe that Trump will simply go away if he loses next year. In fact, all available evidence suggests that he won’t!

What’s remarkable is that I am not even sure Republicans would break with Trump if he lost TWO presidential elections. Such is his power over the party base.

Here’s another thing just to consider: What does it look like for Trump to leave the 2024 race is he loses? Can you imagine him simply bowing out if Ron DeSantis gets more delegates? Or, if he is the nominee again, if Biden gets more electoral votes?

It’s very hard for me to imagine what Trump bowing out would look like. Which should scare us all.

(I wrote more about that possibility here.)

Q: What is the cost to become a paid subscriber?

A: It’s either $5 per month or $50 for the year. I will always have some free content but as I get deeper into this Substack experiment, more features and other special content will be JUST for paying subscribers.

Q: Sorry to read about your father-in-law. Sounds like a great guy.

A: He was the best. He was so great that his passing leaves a massive void for those of us who knew and loved him. If you haven’t read it, I wrote about him here.

Q: What is your opinion on Biden? I like him and he's got an extraordinary amount of good legislation accomplished, especially considering the razor thin make up of the Congress. But, his age is obviously a concern and Harris is so unlikable that I don't think she could win if Biden were not to run. But, she'd have the name recognition and the positioning to be the nominee. Which, IMO, is the only reason she got the VP in the first place.

A: I think its indisputable that Biden has passed a whole bunch of meaningful legislation that will have an impact well beyond his time in office — whether that’s four or eight years.

I think he is a much less skillful campaigner and politician. He’s at times awkward and halting and I don’t think he has the natural gifts that Barack Obama or even George W. possess.

That lack of skills, I think, puts him in a perilous spot as he turns to reelection. Lots of people don’t approve of him or his handling of the economy, which remains the #1` issue for most people.

Biden may well get lucky in that Trump may be the only Republican he can beat — and Republicans seem set on nominating Trump again.

As for Harris, I am less down on her than you. I think being VP is a sucky job — and almost no one this side of Dick Cheney really prospers at it. I think she got off to a very rocky start in the job but has, generally speaking, found her way a bit better over the past 6 months or so.

Could she beat Trump though? I am not so sure.

Q: Do you ever get disheartened by the trolls who seem to have nothing better to do with their time?

A: Nah. There are a WHOLE lot less trolls on Substack than anywhere else I have regularly written.

I try to focus on the people who are interested in meaningful and thoughtful conversations. Blessedly on Substack, there are more of them than the trolls.

Q: I’m reading "The Long Alliance" and it's insane to me Democrats once had 60 seats in the senate. Do you think either side will have that big a majority in the senate again?

Also, very excited for the new book. Are you planning a book tour?

A: It’s hard for me to imagine either side getting to 60 in the next few elections — although I will say that if the national environment is good for Republicans in 2024, they could well pick up a bunch of seats since the map is so so good for them.

While it’s hard to see, history suggests that the pendulum always swings — meaning that, at some point in the not-too-distant future, we could well see one side with 60 seats.

As for the book, I am REALLY excited. It’s out April 18! You can preorder here! And I am going to be doing a bunch of appearances for it. I will make sure to list them in the newsletter once I have a comprehensive list!