Nikki Haley isn't going to solve Republicans' Donald Trump problem

There is no quick fix.

(Nikki Haley and Donald Trump)

The dominant narrative of the last six months in the Republican presidential race is that Donald Trump is the runaway favorite to be the nominee — and that no one is particularly close to catching him.

Over the last 24 hours (or so), however, there’s been rising chatter that Nikki Haley might be emerging as a real and serious challenger to the former president — and that the time is now for everyone else in the race to get out.

A few things happened to trigger this Haley moment:

1. Mike Pence ended his 2024 campaign — surprisingly — on Saturday

2. A new Des Moines Register poll came out Sunday that showed Trump leading the way with 43% followed by Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16% each.

   For DeSantis, he had dropped 3 points since the August Register poll. Haley, meanwhile, had risen 10 points over the last three(ish) months.

Cue the talking heads.

Here’s GOP consultant Mike Murphy, a leading anti-Trump voice within the party, on Haley:

ALONE AMONG THE CONTENDERS, she has a shot. 

Nikki stumbled to the top in the last four months because she is the most talented candidate in the also-ran caucus.

She’s also the only candidate running for real in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If she is able to pull off upsets in the first two states, Trump will be hobbled and she’ll have a real chance to administer the killing blow in South Carolina.

Her messaging has been wobbly and inconsistent, but she has shown sparks—hard for her, I am sure—of telling the truth about Donald Trump.

And here’s conservative talk radio host Erick Erickson:

Nikki Haley's rise is real. Her opponents have dismissed it so often, and so loudly they're now taking to airing attack ads against her. Her rise in Iowa complicates DeSantis's path because she outperforms him in New Hampshire right now, and it's more like Pence fans go her way.

And Michael Strain writing today in National Review:

This is an all-hands-on-deck moment. Without positive action, Trump will be the nominee. Leaders on the right need to do all they can to deny Trump the nomination. That requires giving primary voters a real choice between Trump and one alternative.

Haley is clearly in the best position to beat Trump for the nomination and to beat Biden for the presidency. The more voters focus on her, the more they want to see her sitting in the Oval Office as president. The remaining GOP candidates need to follow Pence’s lead and put country before personal political ambition. They need to stop obscuring the view of the candidate most likely to win.

Let me first say this: I don’t disagree, broadly speaking, with a word of any of that. I DO think Haley is, as Murphy argues, the most naturally talented candidate in the field. Polling DOES show her emerging as the strongest alternative to Trump. Haley WOULD be a very good general election candidate against President Joe Biden.

The issue I have is with the idea that undergirds all of these points: That Haley is on the cusp of turning this into a two-person race and, if it becomes that, she will beat Trump.

I don’t see it.

Let’s start with Iowa — and that same Des Moines Register poll. As part of the survey, people were asked not just their first choice candidate but also their second choice and any other candidate they were actively considering.

This chart tells that story:

At first glance, you might think that the data is good news for Haley (and DeSantis). After all, 52% of Iowa Republicans either see DeSantis as their second choice or are actively considering him. Ditto Haley who had a 39% second choice/actively considering score. Those both compare favorably to Trump 24% second choice/actively considering.

But, dig deeper into the DeSantis numbers. Let’s say (and I don’t expect this to happen), he heeds the calls by Murphy and the like and drops out of the race tomorrow.

That would, actually, be a very good thing for Trump. From the Register writeup of the poll: “Of those who name DeSantis as their first choice for president, 27% name Haley as their second choice. But 41% say their second choice is Trump.”

And then there’s this: Trump is ALREADY at 43%. He could win the caucuses, easily, with that number. (Ted Cruz won the last contested Iowa caucus, in 2016, with less than 28% of the vote.)  He doesn’t need to add any more support. If he just keeps what he has, he (very likely) wins.

There’s plenty of reason to think that he WILL keep what he has too. Again, the Register poll:

Those who name Trump as their first choice are also more enthusiastic about their pick, the poll shows.  

Overall, 30% of likely caucusgoers say they are extremely enthusiastic about their first choice for president.  

Among Trump voters, it’s 47% — about twice what it is among DeSantis voters (25%).  

Among Haley voters, it is even lower, at 19%.

Trump backers are also more committed to him than the supporters of other candidates.

“Overall, 54% percent of likely Republican caucusgoers have a first choice for president and say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate. Fewer, 41%, say their minds are made up,” wrote the Register. “But that number is much higher among Trump supporters, with 63% percent saying their minds are made up.”

Sure, that’s only Iowa we are talking about. But, the story is the same in New Hampshire. And nationally. In all three cases, Trump:

1. Leads the field by a wide (25+ point margin)

2. Is a widely-considered second choice option for people who don’t initially support him

3. Has, by far, the most enthusiastic and committed base of support.

Now, add those three facts to these three:

1. Republican voters are perfectly happy with the GOP field and their options

2. There has been very little interest in Trump alternatives — even with DeSantis’ problems

3. A majority of Republicans believe Trump is their best chance to beat Biden next November

For me, that’s pretty determinative. Which is why I think all the talk about how the silver bullet in the race is to winnow the field down to just Haley and Trump feels like a fantasy wish to me.

The assumption that EVERY vote currently sitting with EVERY candidate not named Trump will migrate to Haley is a pipe dream. Do you really think that if DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy, who has called Trump one of our greatest presidents, got out of the race tomorrow their voters would flock to Haley over the former president? No way.

Look. I get the desire among the anti-Trump wing of the Republican party to imagine a scenario where he is toppled. And, of course, there’s always the possibility that the (very) unexpected happens.

But, looking at the available data, I see no real signs that Haley is anywhere close to seriously challenging Trump for the nomination. Or that all she needs is for all the other candidates to get out to make that scenario come true.