Questions?
You ask 'em. I answer 'em.
The next major moment in the 2024 presidential campaign is set for Tuesday — when Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will debate for the first time (and maybe last?) time.
We now know the rules — mics muted when it’s not your time to talk, no live audience, no prewritten notes. I think those rules probably, in sum, help Trump marginally. But we shall see.
There’s a whole LOT else going on too! The electoral map is coming into sharp focus! Allan Lichtman has made his 2024 pick! The NFL season kicks off tonight! My kids are (finally) back at school!
What’s on your mind? Anything and everything is fair game. Put your questions in the comments section below. (Don’t email me questions — I will miss them and not answer them!)
I will get to as many as I can in my Friday mailbag post. As always, any member of the “So What” community can ask a question. But only paid subscribers get full access to my answers tomorrow.
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Hey Chris,
Everyone has been saying (correctly) that the current Electoral Map favors Republicans). I think there is one giant wild card that nobody is talking about...it won't affect 2024 but I can see it being monumental maybe starting in 2028 - and that is Texas. Consider:
The vote share by the Democratic Presidential Nominee in Texas:
2012: 41.4%
2016: 43.2%
2020: 46.5%
Texas is already fairly close. And further, looking at the vote share by the Democratic Presidential Nominee in Texas's most populous (and growing) counties:
Harris: 49.4% in 2012 to 56.0% in 2020
Dallas: 57.0% in 2012 to 64.9% in 2020
Tarrant: 41.4% in 2012 to 49.3% in 2020
Bexar: 51.5% in 2012 to 58.2% in 2020
Travis: 60.1% in 2012 to 71.4% in 2020
It seems like at some point, Texas may become the new Georgia and become at least a purple state. IF that were to happen, the electoral map would MASSIVELY favor Democrats. IE, taking the current Electoral Map:
"Safe" R Electoral Votes including Texas: 219
"Safe" R Electoral Votes excluding Texas: 179
Without Texas, I imagine it would be beyond difficult for a Republican to win a presidential race anytime soon. And I don't think this is *that* far off. Thoughts?
Hi Chris- I was rather stunned to hear you say that you had not decided on who to vote for yet in the latest Friday livestream. One of the qualities we admire about you is your honesty & transparency. Please level with us. I don't see how you could be undecided? You often write about Trump's danger to our country & democracy. You mock his non-sensical ramblings with awesome gifs from The Office & Zoolander in your transcript breakdown. You have mentioned that this election is a binary choice, you either vote for Harris or vote for Trump.
I can think of three reasons you want to avoid admitting who you vote for. 1. You believe it is private. 2. You believe it may turn off potential or current subscribers. 3. You believe who you vote for is irrelevant to the analysis you provide to us.
Please clarify your rationale for us. Are you truly undecided or is it some combination of the above three reasons?