The first Republican presidential debate is in the rear-view mirror. But did it change anything?
The answer, I think, is sort of.
I think Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy are clearly benefitting from their performances last week. Haley was poised, confident and winning. Ramaswamy was loud, provocative and undeniably central to the debate.
Tim Scott receded some after a lackluster performance that often made me forget he was even on the stage. Ron DeSantis was, to my mind, ok; he never got the big moment that his campaign hoped for but neither did he bomb out.
What hasn’t changed is that the man who didn’t appear on stage — Donald Trump — is still the dominant force in the race.
Even after his fourth(!) indictment last week, Trump’s lead over DeSantis and the rest is largely unchanged.
Trump’s edge in Iowa is slightly smaller than it is nationally but he is still comfortably ahead. His advantage in New Hampshire is huge and his lead in South Carolina is both large and steady.
Put simply: Trump is more likely to be the nominee today than at any point so far this year. Could that change? Sure. The trials over his multiple indictments are intertwined with the political calendar over the next year and a conviction in any one of them has the potential to alter the dynamics of the race.
But, I wouldn’t bet on it. My strong sense is that, at this point, everyone else in the race is either running to be Trump’s vice president or angling for the 2028 race.
Without further ado, let’s get to my rankings of the Republican field — from 10 to 1. As always, this is post for PAID subscribers only. So, if you aren’t one, now is the time t0o become one! It’s easy — just click here:
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