Ranking the 2028 Democrats!
It's *never* too early.
The 2028 election is exactly 1,309 days from now.
Which is a long time! (He says as an authority on time.)
But, here’s the thing: The Democratic candidates who are interested in running for president in 2028 are already making moves to jockey for position in the — admittedly early — stages of the race.
Consider:
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is hosting a podcast in which he talks to people with whom he disagrees (Steve Bannon! Charlie Kirk!). And he’s insisting that the party has to moderate on cultural issues like trans boys playing girls sports.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has ruled out running for the Senate in Michigan in 2026 even while noting — wink, wink, nudge, nudge — that he isn’t done with politics
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer came to DC last week to deliver an address on bipartisanship and the lessons she’s learned governing a swing state
Former Vice President Kamala Harris re-emerged from a self-imposed political silence last week to blast President Donald Trump’s tariff policies
And it’s only April 2025!
Given that candidates are beginning to make moves — and the fact that everywhere I go (online and offline) people ask me about 2028 — I decided I would start doing some early handicapping of where the two parties’ fields stand at the moment. (Hell, CNN even has a 2028 presidential bracket you can fill out!)
I am going to tackle Democrats today. Next week I will go through the GOP’s potential candidates.
Rather than rank order the aspirants, which, candidly, I think it is too early to do, I have put them in tiers: A top tier, a 2nd tier and a 3rd tier. Plus a few wildcards! If your preferred candidate isn’t in the top tier today, never fear! If I had been doing this sort of thing in 2013, I wouldn’t even have had Donald Trump in a tier. And we know how that ended up!
These rankings are the result of conversations with political pros, my observations of the potential candidates and decades (I am old!) of watching how the two parties pick their nominees.
That said, I don’t have a monopoly on right ideas so feel free to disagree with where I slotted the candidates!
This post — and all future 2028 rankings posts — will be behind the paywall. This is the sort of insider information and analysis that I believe distinguishes me as someone calling balls and strikes no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing.
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To the rankings!
Top Tier (in alphabetical order)
Pete Buttigieg: To my mind, Buttigieg won every single Democratic primary debate in 2020. He proved then — and has shown repeatedly over the last 5 years — that he is one of the most articulate spokesman for (and defenders of) Democratic ideals and principles. Plus, he’s done this all before — which matters. Buttigieg will be among the fundraising leaders and will use that money to build top-level organizations in the early voting states. Biggest worry: Is America ready to nominate and elected a married gay man?
Kamala Harris: I’ve made the case in this space that I think it makes most sense for Harris to run for governor of California in 2026 rather than make another run for president in 2028. But Harris’ recent re-entry into national politics — via her criticism of Trump — makes me wonder what she really wants. If she runs, Harris starts in the top-tier by dint of her name identification and proven ability to raise money. Candidly, based on what I have observed in terms of her candidate skills, I am not sure he stays in the top tier. Biggest worry: Is the memory of the 2024 loss still too fresh in Democrats’ minds?
