Ron DeSantis has a Ron DeSantis problem

It's not the campaign, stupid.

(Ron DeSantis)

Ron DeSantis is rebooting.

From NBC:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign is planning a reboot, top campaign officials said, with a significant shift on messaging, events and media strategy.

Expect fewer big speeches and more handshaking in diners and churches. 

There will be more of a national focus than constant Florida references. 

And the mainstream media may start to get more access.

And the New York Times:

Now, his advisers are promising to reorient the DeSantis candidacy as an “insurgent” run and remake it into a “leaner-meaner” operation, days after the first public glimpse into his political finances showed unsustainable levels of spending — including a taste for private planes — and a fund-raising operation that was alarmingly dependent on its biggest contributors and that did not meet its expectations.

And Politico:

Appearing before around 70 of the campaign’s top contributors at the Stein Eriksen Lodge in Deer Valley, Utah, DeSantis’ campaign manager Generra Peck said money had been spent on operations that had turned out to be ineffective and that the campaign would move to a leaner, “insurgent” posture going forward. Among the changes being made were to “expose” voters to DeSantis more, said Nick Iarossi, a Florida-based lobbyist and fundraiser who was at the event.

In short: Things are going to be different now! You’ll see!

Count me skeptical that this reboot/rebrand/reinvention will work — for one main reason: It’s not at all clear to me that voters actually, you know, like DeSantis.

Let me explain.

In the wake of the 2022 Florida governor’s campaign — in which DeSantis won overwhelmingly (more on that in a minute) — DeSantis surged in national polling.

That wasn’t because voters somehow got to know him and decided they liked him. No, they liked the idea of DeSantis. They like the idea of an anti-woke warrior. They liked the idea of a younger politician who could lead the party into the future. They liked the idea of an alternative to Donald Trump.

Unfortunately for DeSantis, the idea of him has, to date, been far more compelling than the reality of him.

From his disastrous campaign announcement to his decidedly underwhelming performance on the trail — he comes off as a mix of awkward and disinterested on the stump — there’s very little evidence that voters are responding to the actual package DeSantis is selling.

Which seems odd, at first glance. After all, DeSantis did win a HUGE victory in Florida in 2022 — a win that would seem to suggest he has a clear appeal to voters.

With hindsight being 20-20, however, it’s worth reexamining that victory — and why it might have been less than meets the eye. I have two reasons to make that case.

1. Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee, was a party switcher (he had previously served as the Republican governor of the state) and something short of beloved within the Democratic party. (He was HATED by Republicans, for obvious reasons.) How did such a flawed candidate wind up as the nominee? The Florida Democratic party has been decimated over the past few election cycles, and is a ghost of its former self. It is effectively non competitive in the state — and it showed in the governor’s race.

2. Florida isn’t a retail state. Given the size of Florida, the best (and really only) way to reach voters is through lots and lots of TV ads. Which is what DeSantis, smartly, did. But, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — the three states that kick off the presidential calendar — are retail states where voters expect you to meet them one on one. DeSantis has never proven that he is good at that part of political life.

So, it’s worth at least considering that DeSantis’ 2022 win was less than meets the eye. Or at least less predictive about his potential in a presidential race than was originally assumed.

Which brings me back to this race — and to DeSantis.

The consensus among his team appears to be that the way to fix their current problems is MORE DeSantis.

“Let Ron be Ron,” one donor told Politico about the future plan. “That’s what got him here. That’s what made him the leader that he is in Florida. We’re going back to our basics on all of this.

Which, well, maybe not?

Look, I get it. Every campaign that has ever struggled has adopted the “Let [candidate x] be [candidate x] mantra.”

It’s the oldest trick in the book.

And it occasionally works! In 2007, after John McCain’s frontrunning candidacy bombed out, he remade himself as the scrappy underdog. Which suited his personality far better! And he wound up winning!

But, there’s a critical difference there. McCain already had a proven track record as a national candidate. He had upset frontrunner George W. Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 — and nearly become the nominee.

People liked McCain! They loved the whole “maverick” thing. So there was a reason to believe that if McCain could get back to the original core of his appeal, voters would respond. And they did.

But, what is the original appeal for DeSantis? Where is the obvious thing about DeSantis that voters have already responded well to?

I don’t know the answer to that question. And that is what worries me about the whole idea of a DeSantis reboot.

I keep coming back to this analogy told to me years ago by a Republican political consultant. You run a new dog food company. You hire the best marketing and sales team. And none of that matters if the dog doesn’t like the dog food.

I am not at all convinced that voters in early primary states like DeSantis — much less want more of him.

In short: DeSantis may have a Taylor Swift problem: It’s me, hi, I’m the problem it’s me.