Ron DeSantis is SO over

Turn out the lights, folks.

(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

The Iowa caucuses are still 76 days away. But, the political obituaries for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign have already started.

Here’s the Washington Post:

DeSantis began the year widely viewed as the Republican with the best chance to build a winning coalition against the former president — the Trump alternative who could entice Trump critics yet was also in many ways a continuation of Trump’s “America First” platform. But DeSantis’s support has shrunk dramatically since then, eroding on both ends of the party spectrum, interviews with dozens of early state voters, as well as pollsters and strategists, show.

The GOP minority that disapproves of Trump — and that favored DeSantis before he and most other candidates announced — has splintered to other hopefuls. Boosted by them and by independents, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley has surpassed DeSantis in New Hampshire and, in one poll released Monday, pulled even with the Florida governor in Iowa — where DeSantis has poured his resources.

At the same time, DeSantis has struggled among Trump supporters, losing ground with those who approve of the former president, who has used his four criminal indictments to re-energize a base that once looked readier to move on from him. And DeSantis has struggled on both ends to make personal appeals that resonate, with a stiffer presentation than freewheeling Trump.

And there’s this from former Georgia Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan:

[Mike] Pence deserves credit for seeing the writing on the wall and stepping aside. Others would be wise to follow his lead before history repeats and former President Trump becomes a runaway train en route to the GOP nomination.

In my view, the next domino to fall should be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Here’s why.

First, after a resounding 2022 re-election, DeSantis has fallen far short of expectations. Entering the race in the spring as the clear second choice behind Trump, he has slowly and steadily fallen to the middle of the pack.

It’s hard to argue with, well, any of that.

Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here’s the polling on the race from July 2022 until now (DeSantis is the green line):

Oomph.

The honest truth is that DeSantis has NEVER had a moment since he became an official presidential candidate in May. His best times as a candidate were when he wasn’t a candidate at all — in the five months following his 2022 reelection victory in Florida.

So, what went wrong? Sifting through the wreckage, there are two obvious problems:

1. DeSantis the candidate

2. DeSantis’ message

Let’s break each of them down — starting with DeSantis as a candidate.

The hype about DeSantis — in the early part of the year — was almost exclusively centered on what he’d done: Turned what was once regarded as an essential swing state into strong Republican territory.

The stories that emerged — nationally — from his 2022 trouncing of former Florida governor (and party switcher) Charlie Crist were entirely focused on how he had done it — with a focus on pushing back against so-called “wokeism” whether in schools or in the corporate world.

The storyline was fresh and new. It seemed, at least for a moment, that DeSantis had tapped into a new vein in the Republican body politic — something that could and would motivate GOP voters as they turned to the 2024 race.

What none (or very little) of the coverage focused on was what DeSantis was like as a politician and a candidate. And, as importantly, how he would wear under the VERY bright lights of a presidential campaign.

It turns out that was the essential question. Because once DeSantis became a candidate, it became clear that he was less than advertised. He was stiff. Robotic. Joyless. Awkward. Odd.

Which, honestly, happens to lots of candidates at the start of a national bid! I still remember vividly doing a townhall event with Barack Obama (for MTV!) in early-ish 2007. He was just not great. He was professorial and stilted — emotionless.

But, obviously, Obama got better! As he campaigned, he adjusted. And his natural political talents came to the fore.

That never happened for DeSantis. The candidate he is today on the campaign trail (and in interviews and the like) is very similar to how he started out. And that candidate just isn’t very good. (The DeSantis “smile” typifies his problems.)

In a presidential race — where people are voting as much for the person as for the policies — being a bad candidate (and by bad I mean personally unappealing) is a very, very hard thing to get over.

I’ve said this before but the best way to think about DeSantis as a candidate is to think of a brand new dog food company. Seeking to be successful, the company hires the best-in-class marketing and sales team. No expense is spared. The launch of the dog food draws huge amounts of media attention. Then people buy the dog food and serve it to their dogs. And the dogs don’t like the food. The company is screwed.

DeSantis is the dog food. He surrounded himself with top talent — and millions (and millions) of dollars. The campaign lacked for nothing. Except a candidate that people liked.

It’s possible, given DeSantis’ limitations as a candidate, that no message he chose could have worked because — as I said — the dogs didn’t like the dog food. But, the message he chose was uniquely ill-suited to the race he was trying to win.

That message? I’m just like Donald Trump — but younger and with less baggage. Which would have made sense if Trump wasn’t already running.

DeSantis and his team seemed to believe that casting himself, effectively, as a clone of Trump would somehow convince Trump voters that he was their guy.

The problem? The original recipe was (and is) in the race! Why would you vote for Diet Trump when you could have regular old Trump?

For months, DeSantis refused to attack Trump — or even, really, disagree with the former president on any substantive policy. When Trump was indicted (again and again), DeSantis echoed Trump’s rhetoric that this was a political persecution by a justice system run amok. On foreign policy, DeSantis flirted with Trump’s isolationist tendencies.

It’s not entirely clear to me why DeSantis chose (and stuck to) this messaging — especially when it became clear it wasn’t moving numbers against Trump. My guess is that DeSantis and his people believed either:

a) the eventual weight of so many legal entanglements would drag Trump’s numbers down and he would be there as the obvious alternative

b) Trump would — for legal or health reasons — leave the race, and DeSantis would be in the pole position

Given what we know of Trump — both his ability to wriggle out of legal problems and his unwillingness to ever admit defeat — those always seemed like unlikely predictions.

And yet, DeSantis based his ENTIRE campaign message on them.

I don’t expect Ron DeSantis to get out of the race any time soon. He (and his super PAC) probably have enough money to keep him going at least through Iowa.

But, make no mistake: His time as the preferred Trump alternative in the race is over. And the odds of him making some sort of miraculous comeback to reclaim that title are near zero.