Ron DeSantis' secret debate strategy is out!
And it's not very good!
For Ron DeSantis, next week’s first presidential debate — 6 days away! — is absolutely critical if he is going to stage a comeback in a race where he has largely disappointed to date.
Which is why it’s helpful to know exactly what his strategy will be going into that debate!
This comes from the New York Times today:
Ron DeSantis needs “to take a sledgehammer” to Vivek Ramaswamy, the political newcomer who is rising in the polls. He should “defend Donald Trump” when Chris Christie inevitably attacks the former president. And he needs to “attack Joe Biden and the media” no less than three to five times.
A firm associated with the super PAC that has effectively taken over Mr. DeSantis’s presidential campaign posted online hundreds of pages of blunt advice, research memos and internal polling in early nominating states to guide the Florida governor ahead of the high-stakes Republican presidential debate next Wednesday in Milwaukee.
The trove of documents provides an extraordinary glimpse into the thinking of the DeSantis operation about a debate the candidate’s advisers see as crucial.
Let’s first tackle how this sort of thing could happen.
Remember that DeSantis has farmed out a whole lot of campaign jobs — including the strategy piece — to Never Back Down, the well funded super PAC with ties to some of the Florida governor’s top strategists.
Never Back Down can neither communicate nor coordinate with DeSantis’ campaign. Meaning they have zero ability to directly advise the candidate on anything.
The loophole to this rule is that Never Back Down can simply post — on the web for alleged public consumption — any materials they want. Super PACs take a calculated risk when they do this. Yes, it’s more likely the campaign looks at the website than the media. But it’s not out of the question that the media (or even rival campaigns) happen upon it, in which case they have a window directly into your strategy.
Which is exactly what appears to have happened here. This is how the Times described its discovery of the materials:
The New York Times was alerted to the existence of the documents by a person not connected to the DeSantis campaign or the super PAC. After The Times reached out to Never Back Down for comment on Thursday, the group removed from the website a key memo summarizing the suggested strategy for the debate.
Translated: Another campaign, who is monitoring the website of the consultants who comprise Never Back Down, found the information and passed it along to the Times. Which is now leading its website with the story.
That, in and of itself, is interesting. And reflective, more generally, of a narrative already out there in the race: That DeSantis and his affiliated entities are really the gang who can’t shoot straight.
After all, providing your rival campaigns with a blueprint of your plan for the debate is, um, unwise. The element of surprise — always a key component of a strong debate performance — is now gone for DeSantis.
But, I’m actually more intrigued by the advice contained within the documents. The documents say there are “four basic must-dos” for DeSantis [abbreviated as “GRD” for “Governor Ron DeSantis”] in the debate:
Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times.
State GRD’s positive vision 2-3 times.
Hammer Vivek Ramaswamy in a response.
Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.
Let’s take them one by one.
Bullet point #1 and #2 both have the same aim: Establish the idea in the minds of voters that DeSantis isn’t really running against the other people on stage, he’s running against President Joe Biden.
Which is weird! Because usually the candidate who is pivoting to the general election is the frontrunner — not the guy whose poll numbers continue to slide. Running a general election campaign in the primary only works when, you know, you actually look like you are going to win the primary.
Bullet point #3 actually makes the most sense to me — and seems sound from a political strategy perspective. Ramaswamy, the young entrepreneur, is running in the same space that DeSantis wants to occupy: Trumpism without Trump.
And, polls suggest that Ramaswamy is picking up momentum. In a Fox News poll released Wednesday night, Trump is way out in the lead with 53% followed by DeSantis at 16% and Ramaswamy at 11%. That’s double the support Ramaswamy had received in past Fox News polling on the race.
It makes sense then for DeSantis to find a time in the debate to knock Ramaswamy, who has been ignored by the other candidates to date, and slow his momentum. Good job GDR team!
It’s the final bullet point that, to me, ruins the whole thing for DeSantis. “Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.”
WHAAAAAAT?
The reality of DeSantis’s current situation is this: He is in 2nd place (and slipping) but running WAY behind Trump.
I post this chart all the time but it’s instructive of the current state of the race (DeSantis is the green line):
Generally speaking, when you have a frontrunner as strong as Trump, the only way to bring him down is to go after him — relentlessly.
And what better way to do that than in a debate setting, with the eyes of the Republican world on you? DeSantis is unlikely to ever have such a large number of eyeballs on him again (first debates always rate the best) and if he was going to take his shot, next Wednesday’s set-to seems like the ideal time to do it.
The thinking (if I had to guess it) of the DeSantis campaign would be:
No one likes the guy who picks on the person who’s not there to defend themselves
By attacking Christie, DeSantis endears himself with the Trump base.
Which I get! But these are desperate times for DeSantis! They require desperate measures!
There is simply NO historical evidence to suggest that a candidate down 40 points makes up that ground by refusing to attack the frontrunner — or even defending the frontrunner. NONE.
This, of course, has long been DeSantis’s strategy and, for just as long, I have been baffled by it. He will, when provoked, occasionally attack Trump. But he has said himself that he wants to keep the focus of the campaign on Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. Except that unless something big changes, DeSantis isn’t going to get the chance to run against Biden! Not even close!
To have as a strategy the defense of an absent Donald Trump seems to me to be the height of idiocy for DeSantis. He needs to move against Trump — hard and quickly. Wasting an opportunity like the debate provides to begin that climb is nonsensical.
It really is the Ron DeSenseless campaign!
Was waiting for this one. The fact that the debate strategy was so easily found and leaked is campaign malpractice. Christie and Ramaswamy should have a field day with this.