Should Democrats be rooting for Donald Trump?

Political jujitsu.

(Image created by Dall E)

In the 2022 election, much ink was spilled — and cable TV hours consumed — over Democrats purposely meddling in Republican primaries to help election deniers win nominations.

The most notable example was in Michigan where the House Democratic campaign arm spent $450,000 on ads labeling Bob Gibbs as “too conservative” in his primary fight against Rep. Peter Meijer.

Meijer, not for nothing, was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump following the January 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol.

The Democratic strategy was simple: Gibbs, a promoter of the false idea that the election had been stolen from Trump, would be easier to beat in a general election. So, they did what they could to help that outcome happen.

It worked. Gibbs beat Meijer in the primary and then lost the general election to now Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten. And it wasn’t close.

Democrats pulled the same move in governor’s races in Illinois, Maryland and Pennsylvania and in the Senate race in New Hampshire. It worked every time.

And now, Democrats are at it again — in a Wisconsin state Senate race. As the New York Times noted earlier this week:

“Democrats are helping a far-right election denier who has become a pariah within her party in her race against a less extreme, but still election-denying, conservative. They hope that with a more vulnerable opponent, Democrats can win a seat held for decades by Republicans and deny the G.O.P. a veto-proof majority in the gerrymandered chamber.”

Which got me to thinking about the 2024 presidential race and who Democrats should want as the Republican nominee.

Another way of asking that question is who, among the major candidates for the GOP nomination, would be the weakest general election opponent.

The answer to that question, it seems obvious to me, is Donald Trump. Here’s a few reasons why:

1. Trump has already lost to Biden once. While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, Biden and his team would have to feel good about their blueprint on how to run against (and beat) the former president.

2. Trump is old. Yes, Biden is old too! (Four years older than Trump, in fact.) But, if you believe that Biden’s advanced age is his biggest weakness among voters — and I believe it is — then the WORST thing you can do is run a candidate against him who, because of his own age, can’t make the argument that it’s time for a new generation of leadership. That potential dagger to Biden’s campaign gets taken off the table entirely. (Sure, Trump will try to argue that Biden isn’t mentally acute etc. but those attacks have less credibility when they are coming from a 76 year old man.)

3. Trump is toxic among independents. The 2024 election — like the 2020 election — is likely to be a) close and b) come down to independent voters. And those unaligned voters have no taste for Trump. In a new Quinnipiac University national poll, just 33% of independents approve of Trump while 58% disapprove. Biden’s numbers are barely better among indies — but the whole point for Republicans is to nominate someone who can win independents over Biden, Trump is ill suited for that task.

There’s more but you get the idea. Biden was nominated by Democrats for the express reason that he was the best bet to beat Trump. That remains true. That matchup is, on its face, more favorable for Democrats than a Biden-Ron DeSantis head to head would be. Or even a Biden-Nikki Haley fight. Or Biden-Mike Pence.

Which creates a dilemma for Democrats. Because they don’t just hate Trump but, if you believe them, they regard him to be an existential threat to democracy — someone who, if he is elected president again, could end the country as we have come to know it.

And, make no mistake: If Trump is the nominee, he could win. While I think it’s less likely than if Republicans chose someone other than Trump, the country is closely divided enough that, under the right external circumstances, there is definitely a path for Trump.

So, what do you do if you are a Democrat. Do you root for Trump under the belief he’s the weaker general election opponent? And take the risk that he won’t win even if he winds up as the nominee?

Take it even further: Should liberal-aligned super PACs meddle in the Republican primary to help Trump get the nomination?

That, of course, is a very dangerous game, with uncertain consequences. But, it may wind up being too alluring for Democrats to resist given the success of that very strategy in the 2022 primaries.