Should Joe go?

It looks bad right now.

Another day, another new low for Joe Biden in a national poll.

This one comes from Monmouth University — where Biden is down to 34% approval (with 61% disapproving).

That new low in Monmouth is far from an outlier. Biden, of late, has also hit his lowest mark in the Wall Street Journal poll and Gallup’s monthly survey.

Not surprisingly, Biden’s dismal approval ratings have translated into his possible general election matchup against Donald Trump as well.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average as of this morning, Trump now leads Biden by 3.5 points —his widest margin ever over the incumbent.

All of which raises a simple question: Should Joe Biden drop out of the race in hopes that some other Democrat would have a better chance of defeating Trump?

Charlie Cook, my first boss in Washington and a longtime political handicapper, posed just that question in his most recent column.

Wrote Charlie:

Biden saw himself in 2020 as the only Democrat who could defeat Trump. Indeed, he may have been correct. Yet while he certainly still feels an obligation to run in order to prevent his predecessor from returning to power, it may no longer be the case that he’s the only one capable of it. Concerns about his age and whether his health and capabilities are good for another five years, as well as voters’ very dim view of his economic stewardship, suggest that he would have a harder time defeating Trump than a Democrat without his baggage…

…The reality is that a race between Trump and another Democrat would very likely be focused on Trump, just as the 2020 election was. A race between Biden and a Republican other than Trump would undoubtedly be more about Biden. Some have suggested a co-dependence—each needs the other in the race.

Biden is a very proud man, and given his 48 combined years of service to the country as a senator, vice president, and president, he has every right to be. But now he must confront the possibility that if there is a second Trump term in the White House, it will be at least partly because of Biden, not despite him. Biden has delivered on many programs that Democrats have long sought. But staying in a race that effectively sends Trump back into the White House would mar that legacy in a way that he could not possibly want.

Outwardly, the Biden team shows zero signs of concern — dismissing the poll results as a) too early to matter and b) not reflective of election results on the ground.

But, behind closed doors, the tensions of enduring months of poor poll numbers are showing.

As the Washington Post reported Monday:

After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it. He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.

For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and friends they are frustrated by the president’s low approval rating and the polls that show him trailing former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination — and in recent weeks, they have grown upset that they are not making more progress.

Now, before I go any further let me say this: I am not passing judgment on the success (or not) of Biden’s first term. I have, candidly, been surprised that he has been able to get as much passed — infrastructure bill, Chips and Science Act etc. — with a divided Congress as he has.

And, yes, Donald Trump is an active threat to American democracy — not just by his unwillingness to accept the 2020 election results but also by the authoritarian-adjacent positions he has staked out in this campaign.

The reality, however, is that there is considerable and lasting skepticism about Biden in the electorate — from his handling of the economy to his foreign policy to, yes, his age.

Whether you think these issues are media creations or not (they are not), the fact remains that his numbers are what they are. And in politics, like in sports, you are what your numbers say you are.

And Joe Biden’s numbers — at least as of today — suggest that he will start 2024 as an underdog to Donald Trump.

I have said and written, many times, that I believe that Biden — warts and all — is the best and strongest nominee for Democrats.

My argument has always been that, yes, Biden has issues but that he also has strengths that any other Democratic candidate does not have. Among them:

1. He’s the current president — and the power of incumbency is a real thing in American politics

2. He’s already beaten Trump once

3. He has a depth of experience and wisdom at the highest levels of politics that none of the other would-be Democrats can match.

I still believe all of those things!

And yet, I would be lying if I said I was still totally convinced that Biden represents the best hope for Democrats to beat Trump.

Why? I have spent a bunch of time thinking about that. The best analogy I can think of is renovating a house. Stick with me here.

Let’s say you are in the house flipping business. You see a house that has great bones and is reasonably priced. It’s a sound bet. So, you buy it.

As you start the renovation, unforeseen problems start to crop up. There’s asbestos in the walls, say. So, you suck it up and fix it. But then you find mold — the bad kind — in the basement. It’s not cheap but you fix that. Then a major rain storm comes through and you realize that the basement floods. As you stare at the estimated costs to fix that, you start to think: Am I just throwing good money after bad? As in, no matter how many things you fix in the house, is there always going to be something else that pops up? And at what point do you suck up your losses and move on?

That, for me, is the question facing Democrats when it comes to Biden’s candidacy. As The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last has documented, Biden has addressed many of the issue that people said were a) his fault and b) going to doom him. Inflation is down. Gas prices are down. Most economists believe we had dodged a recession. Biden hasn’t tripped or fallen — or shown any obvious signs of physical decline — in six-ish months. While the situation in the Middle East remains decidedly tenuous, Biden has, generally speaking, cut a moderate figure on it all.

He has, in short, cleared plenty of hurdles. And yet, his poll numbers just keep going down.

Which makes me think — or at least consider — that minds are simply made up about him. That people have decided that his age is a major issue — and nothing Biden does will change their mind. That people have decided that even though they feel ok about their own personal economic situation, the overall economy is somehow bad.

In short, that a majority of voters have judged Biden and found him wanting — for one reason or another. And that nothing — including facts! — will change their thinking.

Again, I don’t know that to be the case. Biden has generally laid low in the race so far, ceding the ground to Trump to make the case that the incumbent is failing in every aspect of the job. That will not always be the case. Biden and his team will spend the next 11 months not only selling his accomplishments to a (skeptical) public but also making clear what it would mean to the country if Trump gets back into the White House.

Which absolutely could change things! As Democrats like to note, there were plenty of polls in 2011 that suggested Barack Obama could lose reelection the following year. And he won. Convincingly.

But the question Democrats — starting with Biden — need to ask themselves is whether the risk they are taking is worth it given the stakes.

And those stakes are substantial. Trump’s announced plans if he wins in 2024 would fundamentally transform the presidency, the federal bureaucracy and, yes, the country.

This is not simply about the difference between electing a Democrat and electing a Republican. Trump would, if he wins, pursue an agenda of vengeance and score-settling the likes of which we have never seen before in this country.

THOSE are the stakes. And THAT is the consideration Biden needs to make. If the ultimate goal is to keep Donald Trump from the White House, is he still the best person to make that happen?