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Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn in the Tennessee 7th district special election on Tuesday night.
And that’s where the good news for Republicans ended.
Van Epps looks headed to a 9-point win over Behn in a district that 13 months ago Donald Trump carried by 22 points.
And, had Democrats nominated someone better fitted for the district — Behn was (and is) an outspoken liberal with a long track record of public statements that didn’t sit well with voters in a Republican district — there is a very real possibility that the GOP could have lost on Tuesday.
So, what does it all mean? I have thoughts!
Special elections are special. This was the only House race on the ballot yesterday. It drew considerable national attention and spending. (Both sides and their aligned outside groups spent millions on TV ads.) In the 2026 midterms there will be lots more races — and none will get the undivided attention of the political world like this special election did.
The Democratic over-performance is real. Behn’s 9-point loss in a seat where Kamala Harris lost by 22 points in November 2024 is, broadly, in keeping with the level of Democratic over-performance we have seen in other, less competitive special elections so far this year. This chart by Geoffrey Skelley over atDecision Desk HQ is instructive on that front:
Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that Behn’s performance proves — or at least suggests — that any House seat that Trump won by 13 points or less is now in play. That’s a WHOLE lot of Republican incumbents who previously assumed they were safe. Even if the Democratic over-performance in November 2026 winds up being half as large as Behn’s — so 6.5 points — that would still easily hand the House to Democrats.
As Republican strategist Matt Whitlock put it on X on Tuesday night:
Trump was a very light presence. In past special elections in strongly Republican seats like this one in Tennessee, the GOP nominee would have had Trump in every ad, every piece of mail, every communication from the campaign. Not so for Van Epps. Trump wasn’t in the campaign’s ads. He didn’t visit the district. On the day before the election, Trump called into a rally Speaker Mike Johnson was headlining and then, later, did a tele-rally. What does it mean? That even among Republican base voters, Trump may not be the rallying force he once was. And that Republican candidates are starting to re-calibrate how much or little to use Trump in a campaign context — especially as his approval rating, including among Republicans, keeps dropping.
Democrats celebrating today would do well to remember two things: 1) Behn lost and 2) the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away.
But if I am a Republican House member sitting in a district that Trump won by 6 points in 2024, I am a LOT more nervous and/or reassessing my future political plans this morning.
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