The 10 Republicans most likely to be the 2024 nominee

Let's do some rankings!

(Candidates running for office. Image created by Dall E.)

When I sat down to come up with my list of the 10 Republicans who could wind up as the party’s presidential nominee, I was immediately struck by one thing: It’s damn hard to come up with 10 candidates who can make a credible case for the nomination.

The race, at least right now, is a two-person contest between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. There are a few other names — Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pence — who, under the right circumstances, could wind up mattering.

But, once you get beyond those 5 or so, the truth is that you start to get into a combination of candidates who may well pass on the race, long shots and, well, no shots.

Why?

A big part of the reason is the ongoing dominance of Trump within the party. Over the past 5 years, Trump has elevated himself and denigrated everyone else. He has expressed zero interest in building a bench of future national stars. Anyone who gets too popular — and, therefore, is regarded as a threat by Trump — he makes sure to cut down.

It was in his interest to create himself as the unquestioned leader of the party, without equal and unchallenged for that title. And, lots and lots of Republicans — including people like Haley and Pence who are likely to run — spent the last half decade bowing to his interests.

Another reason is that some of the brighter potential stars within the party look at the prospect of running against Trump and decide that waiting another four years isn’t the worst thing. I’d put Sens. Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton in that category.

Regardless, the GOP field — at least as currently comprised — is decidedly thin.

Below, my rankings — which I stretched to include 10 candidates. The #1 ranked candidate is the most likely to be the nominee.

10. Chris Christie: Out of the anti Trump candidates, the former New Jersey governor stands out because a) he’s run for president before and knows what it takes and b) he has some innate charisma and ability as a candidate. I still don’t think there is a large enough segment of the Republican electorate to make a Christie bid viable — particularly given that he, like several other names on this list, loved Trump before he turned on him. Which makes his anti Trump stance a little short of convincing.

9. Brian Kemp: The Georgia governor isn’t out traveling to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina like many of the other people ranked above him. But, he’s clearly at least mulling the possibility of running. And, as a governor who was elected and reelected in a swing state — in spite of being one of Trump’s main targets in 2022 — he has a story to tell that could appeal to those in the party who are looking to move beyond the former president. Want to understand more about Kemp’s potential? Read this — and this.

8. Glenn Youngkin: Before the DeSantis boomlet, there was the Youngkin surge — triggered by the businessman’s 2021 victory in the Virginia governor’s race. Finally, Republicans whispered to one another, a candidate had figured out how to navigate between the Trump wing of the party and the establishment. None of that has changed — even if Youngkin has been eclipsed by DeSantis (among others). Polling suggests that he is popular in the Commonwealth. The issue for Youngkin is that he is little known nationally among Republicans and would need to get into the race ASAP to begin the process of getting his name ID up. He seems disinclined to do so.

7. Greg Abbott: If you’re looking for a bit of a dark horse in the 2024 field, I’d take a hard look at the Texas governor. He’s proven he can raise vast sums of money, has a decidedly conservative record over his time as the state’s chief executive and has a compelling personal story to tell. (At 26, Abbott was out running when a tree fell on him — leaving him paralyzed from the waist down.). He and his top strategist have said he won’t take a serious look at the race until the Texas legislative session ends, which, if history is any guide, will be in late May/early June.

6. Mike Pompeo: Color me slightly surprised that in a new Quinnipiac University poll of the 2024 race, Pompeo took 4% — tied with Pence and only a point behind Haley. I didn’t think the former Secretary of State would have even that level of support. Pompeo said last month that he would make his mind up about the race in “the next handful of months” but his travel schedule — and his decision to publish a book — suggests he’s already all-but-in. Pompeo will try to take credit for the foreign policy successes during his tenure but that could be tough with Trump, his boss at the time, in the race.

5. Mike Pence: Most polling on the presidential race puts the former vice president in 3rd place — well beyond Trump and DeSantis and marginally ahead of the Haley and the rest. And Pence is clearly running. The issue for me is how the heck he will actually do it. While Pompeo and Haley will have to find a way to distance themselves from Trump even while having worked in his administration, Pence was his VICE PRESIDENT. That presents a unique challenge when it comes to distancing. And then there’s this: Trump has poisoned the water for Pence among the hardcore Republican base by blaming him for not working hard enough to overturn the 2020 election.