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President Donald Trump’s unprecedented move to take over the D.C. police department and deploy hundreds of National Guard troops on the streets of the nation’s capitol is best understood, politically speaking, as a well-laid trap for Democrats.
Here’s why.
Trump knows that Democrats loathe him. And that their natural reaction to anything he does is to a) immediately push back and b) suggest what he is doing is evidence of his authoritarian tendencies.
He also knows that being tough on crime is a winning issue for him — and that Democrats, accurately, making the case that crime is down in DC over the last few years makes very little difference in how people feel in the city.
The Washington Post-Schar School did a poll in May of DC residents that found that 50% said that crime in the District was an “extremely” or “very” serious problem.
Yes that number is down from the 65% who said crime was a big problem last year. But 50% of DC residents saying crime is a major issue is still VERY high — and that means that there will be plenty of people living in the District who will welcome Trump’s move.
Take it out of the political context. We all know, intellectually, that the VAST majority of commercial airliners do NOT crash. As of 2024, there is a fatal plane crash once for every 2 million successful takeoffs and landings. Two million!
And yet, when you are 30,000 feet above the ground and the plane hits unexpected turbulence, you probably get nervous (I know I do)! Because all the data in the world doesn’t change how you feel.
Crime is like that. Feeling unsafe does not mean you are unsafe. But the feeling matters.
Then there’s this: Anytime Trump (and Republicans more broadly) are talking about crime and safety issues, they are on very solid political ground with the public. People believe Republicans are the party of law and order. (January 6, 2021 would like a word, but I digress.) And can keep them safe.
If Trump can force Democrats to make an argument that some level of crime is acceptable — as he is trying to do — that’s a win for him. And, as I said above, citing a bunch of data — including data that suggests crime is down from sky-high rates in 2023 — isn’t a winning political solution for Democrats.
The more time Democrats spend pushing back hard on Trump’s DC takeover, the less time they spend highlighting the damaging effects of his tariffs. Or continuing to ramp-up pressure for his administration to release the Jeffrey Epstein files.
You get the idea. Winning politics is about picking the most favorable ground for your side to fight on. Crime in major cities ain’t it for Democrats.
