The dumbest fight in Republican politics is happening right now
Like, why?
The super PAC supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is on the attack — launching a $2.5 million TV ad buy in national cable markets as well as Iowa and New Hampshire.
Big news! He’s going after frontrunner Donald Trump! Finally!
Wait, what’s that you say? This ad isn’t attacking Trump at all?
Here’s CBS News:
It centers around a South Carolina-based production plant for a Chinese fiberglass company built in 2016. The company, China Jushi, invested $300 million to build its first U.S. plant on 200 acres in Columbia, South Carolina, and brought in at least 400 jobs, according to the South Carolina Department of Commerce….
…The DeSantis PAC's ad features a clip of [former South Carolina Gov. Nikki] Haley touting that Chinese firms "wanna do business in South Carolina." It also shows a soundbite of her saying China is "really in good faith doing quite a bit. They are a really great friend of ours," though that was pulled from a 2017 CBS News interview where she talked about China signing on to U.S. sanctions on North Korea.
"Nikki Haley: questionable judgment, dangerous on China," the ad's narrator says, showing pictures of Haley and Chinese President Xi Jinping with Chinese symbols in the background that read "Communist Party of China."
Yes, that’s right. DeSantis’ super PAC is spending millions of dollars going after Nikki Haley!
Which is an extension of where DeSantis himself has been headed for weeks now. He and his campaign have attacked Haley for allegedly saying that the U.S. should accept refugees from Gaza. Fact checks have shown that the attack is false but that hasn’t stopped DeSantis and his Never Back Down super PAC from promoting it.
Haley has responded — of course. Her super PAC released an ad in which the narrator says “Poor Ron DeSantis; he’s losing, he’s lying. So now he’s throwing mud at Nikki Haley.”
Which, titillating!
But, also, totally and completely pointless.
Let’s reset for a minute. Here is where the Republican race for president stands, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average:
Notice anything? Like, say, that Donald Trump is literally RUNNING AWAY WITH THE NOMINATION?
His numbers are so high that they almost need to make a new chart with “60%” on it! Meanwhile, DeSantis and Haley are fighting for scraps — battling it out for the 15%-20% of voters who are looking for a candidate other than Trump.
DeSantis started all of this — and I think I know why. The DeSantis people are still operating under the idea that this is the working dynamic of the GOP primary:
Trump is ahead right now
There will be a reckoning among GOP voters (at some point soon) in which they will hop off the Trump bandwagon and look for a credible conservative alternative
DeSantis is best positioned — through polling, fundraising and message — to be that alternative
If you see the race in those terms, then the only real danger to you is if someone threatens your position as the most viable Trump alternative.
Which brings us to Haley who is, quite clearly, doing that. Her poll numbers are improving steadily — nationally and in early states — while DeSantis’ have flat-lined (at best).
In an editorial calling for all the non-Haley candidates to drop out so as to give the field the best chance of beating Trump, the Charleston Post and Courier wrote over the weekend that:
Haley is the one Republican who is clearly ascending — in the polls, in fundraising, in her willingness to challenge the former president. And the Hamas attack on Israel should convince all but the most Trumpian of Republicans that international matters matter…
…Although Ms. Haley should never be confused with a moderate, she could easily be next year’s choice of independents and traditional Republicans. But that requires the other candidates getting out of the way.
They need to do so now. While it can still make a difference.
The problem for DeSantis (and Haley too) is that there is ZERO evidence that how they see the race is at all close to how the average Republican views it.
The base of the Republican party is:
a) heavily behind Trump
b) sure that he will win the nomination
c) uninterested in any alternative candidates
d) totally convinced he represents the party’s best chance to beat President Joe Biden
DeSantis going after Haley then is, well, sort of missing the boat. Or, maybe more accurately, like watching a bunch of 5 year olds play soccer. Sure, they enjoy it but man is it pointless. (I speak from personal experience.)
The truth is that Haley and DeSantis are slugging it out right now for the right to finish as first loser (way) behind Trump. Attacking each other does nothing other than damage the two of them — while Trump continues to walk to the nomination.
The only explanation is that there is a chance Trump drops out. Perhaps as part of a plea deal. Or the 14th amendment. Health. Needs the money for lawyers The election is more than a year away. Lots can happen.
Great read Chris. Do Desantis et al know something that the rest of us don’t know? It seems as if they are positioning themselves to get Trumps cult members without pissing off Trump. How else could you explain it?