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One of the questions I get the most goes like this: When are Republican elected officials finally going to start standing up to Donald Trump?
My answer is always the same: As soon as Republican base voters start to turn on Trump.
Well, we may be there — or heading in that direction.
A new Gallup poll released over the weekend shows Trump at just 36% approval, the lowest he has been in Gallup data in his second term — and very near the lowest ebb ever measured by Gallup (34% approval after January 6, 2021).
Which is bad!
But the key is the approval numbers broken out by party:
In Gallup’s poll last month, Trump was at 91% among Republicans. Now he’s at 84%.
Which isn’t the end of the world! If Trump stays in the mid to high 80s among Republican base voters, it is very unlikely there will be a stampede of elected GOP officials breaking with him publicly.
But that trend line is, um, not encouraging for Trump. To drop seven points in a month among the hardest of your hardcore supporters is worrisome. And at least opens up the possibility that the GOP base — or at least some significant chunk of it — is tiring of Trump.
Trump’s great strength over his decade-plus in national politics has been the iron grip with which he holds Republican base voters. As long as Trump’s approval was in the high 80s or 90s with Republicans, there was (and is) no way the party’s elected officials would break from him on, well, much of anything.
Lambast them as unprincipled lackies if you like, but they are focused on getting reelected — and with a president liked by 9 in 10 of their base voters, they just aren’t going to split from him.
But at 80% approval? Or 75% approval? That prospect becomes MUCH more likely.
It’s important to note that this is one poll — albeit it a very good one with a long track record. It’s possible Republican base voters will get back in line with Trump by next month.
But watch the Republican approval number. It’s the codex to understanding if/when the party begins to move beyond Trump.
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