The 'So What' Senate rankings

Hot off the presses!

We are 5 weeks — to the day! — away from the 2024 election.

Which seems to me to be a very good time to revisit my rankings of the 10 Senate seats most likely to change parties!

My overall view on the race for the Senate majority has changed slightly since the last time I did this: I am now more bullish on Republican chances of taking the majority — thanks in large part to the continued struggles of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.

While Democrats continue to insist they have real opportunities for pickups in Florida and Texas, I am still in wait-and-see mode on both races. To play seriously in either race is probably a $20-$30 million commitment by national Democrats — and I haven’t seen any indication just yet that they will make that big a bet.

The Decision Desk HQ Senate model agrees with my sense of the state of play. They give Republicans a 70% chance of winning the majority in the fall. Here are the model odds for the most competitive races:

I am putting the majority of my rankings behind the paywall — so that only paid subscribers will get access to the full piece. Why? Because I think this is the sort of insight that you don’t get everywhere. And that, I hope, makes you consider becoming a financial supporter of me if you aren’t already.

It’s $6 a month and $60 for the full year. You get lots of perks with a paid subscription — including a 15-minute, one-on-one Zoom with me! — as well as access to ALL of my “So What” content.

Here we go!

10. Texas (Republican controlled)

I know there was a poll out recently that had Democratic Rep. Colin Allred ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz by a single point. That seems slightly too optimistic for Democrats. My sense is that Cruz has a mid-single-digit lead (4-6 points) at the moment. Allred, a former NFL player, has run a very credible and serious campaign. And we know there is around 46% of voters in Texas who won’t vote for Cruz. I just don’t know that there is a majority of those voters — no matter how much national Democrats spend on the race. I don’t think Texas — in a presidential year where Donald Trump carries the state — is going to elect a Democratic challenger to the Senate.

9. Florida (R)

Rick Scott has been elected to two terms as governor of Florida and to his current term in the Senate. He won with 49% and 48%, respectively, in his two gubernatorial races. In his 2018 race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, Scott won with 50% — a margin of 10,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast. If you are a Democrat, you look at that and conclude that Scott is absolutely beatable — and the recent polling suggests he is! If you are a Republican, you conclude that Scott always wins close races. Which is also true! I tend to side with the Republican argument on this — mostly because a) Scott is very rich and b) he has shown a willingness to spend heavily from his own pocket on his past races. In a state as pricey to advertise in as Florida, that matters — especially if national Democrats don’t pony up.