What Joe Biden gets totally *wrong* about polling

Facts > Opinion

During a trip to New Hampshire on Monday, President Joe Biden offered a blunt critique of political polling.

“Polling has kind of changed a lot too,” he told reporters. “It’s not nearly as accurate. It's not nearly as capable as it was before because you’ve got to make 6 zillion calls to get one person on their cell phone.”

Which is worth fact checking!

Before I do that, let me say this: I get what Biden is doing.

First, he is channeling the feelings (and beliefs) of the Democratic base with his dismissal of polling. They believe current polling drastically underestimates actual Democratic turnout — pointing to a series of special election victories at the state and federal level for their party in recent years.

Second, he is reacting — in one of the only ways he can — to poll after poll that shows him trailing Donald Trump both nationally and in swing states. Here, for example, is the Real Clear Politics polling average of the national data on the presidential race:

The candidate behind in polling always says that the polls are wrong. That they are missing something critical. (Donald Trump regularly did this in 2016 and 2020.)

But, well, are they? Is polling broken in the way Biden suggests?

---

This is a post for PAID subscribers only. Increasingly I am going to put some of my most key pieces of analysis behind the paywall as I seek to make a living writing this newsletter. I hope you can understand and support that decision. I will note that it only costs $5 a month (or $50 a year) to subscribe to this newsletter. That’s less than a venti caramel macchiato at Starbucks. (Mine was $7.61 this morning in Manhattan!) And one other thing to consider: The price for a subscription to this newsletter is going up on April 1. But if you act now, you are locked into lowest price for the lifetime of your subscription!

---