Gavin Newsom is everywhere these days.
He’s sitting down for a high profile interview with Sean Hannity. He’s attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a weak candidate in an interview with the Associated Press. A new super PAC aimed at taking on red-state Republicans is in progress.
You might think that the governor of California is running for something. Something big.
Heck even DeSantis got in on the speculation — telling Newsom to “stop pussyfooting around” and announce his bid for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination already.
“If the old saying goes the first thing a Vice President does every morning is check the President’s pulse, these days Newsom might be checking it first,” said Rob Stutzman, a longtime California-based Republican consultant.
Except, Newsom insists that running for president is the furthest thing from his mind.
“Not on God’s green earth, as the phrase goes,” Newsom said. “I have been pretty consistently — including recently on Fox News — making the case for his candidacy.”
Which, well, sure.
But, again, the simplest explanation is usually the right one in politics — and that explanation is that Newsom has his eye on the future.
Which is not to say he is going to primary Joe Biden! That wouldn’t make a ton of sense — especially this late in the game — and would make a whole lot of enemies that Newsom neither wants nor needs.
Worth noting: A poll done earlier this year in California showed that 7 in 10 voters in the state would prefer Newsom NOT to run for president in 2024. That included a majority (54%) of self-identified Democrats.
What Newsom is doing is something far more strategic. He is actively putting himself at the front of the line for 2028 — when the Democratic race will be open no matter what happens in 2024 — while also ensuring that if Biden was to drop out Democrats would turn to him first.
“Gavin Newsom is running for president — the only question is whether it will be next year or in 2028,” said Dan Schnur, a professor at the University of California Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. “But either way, this gives him a national profile that will serve him well with primary voters when the time comes. Even as a steadfast Biden supporter, he has been able to contrast himself with the president as a younger, more energetic and more combative successor.”
At 80, Biden is 25 years older than Newsom. And poll after poll shows that Democratic voters a) don’t want Biden to run again and b) are worried he is too old for the job he is seeking.
What better way to draw that subtle — but intended — contrast than for Newsom to be everywhere all of the time. Right? Right!
Again, Newsom is almost certainly playing the long game here. He knows that the most likely outcome is that Biden is the nominee in 2024 — and you can be sure that he will continue to go out of his way to make clear that he’s 1000% behind Joe.
As Politico reported on Wednesday night, Newsom hosted a massive fundraiser for Biden earlier this week and went out of his way to endear himself to Biden world.
While it’s customary for governors to line up behind their party’s president, Newsom has gone to even greater lengths in recent months to demonstrate his fealty and offer up his services to help for 2024.
The California governor hopscotched the Bay Area for nearly 36 hours this week to greet Biden at the airport, speak about the administration’s climate policy at a Palo Alto nature preserve, chat artificial intelligence in San Francisco and co-headline a reelection fundraiser for the president across the Golden Gate in the deep-pocketed woodlands of Marin County.
But it is simply a fact — and one Newsom knows well — that win or lose Biden will be off the political stage in 2028. And that the nomination fight will be wide open — with Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and himself likely comprising the top tier.
So why not get a jump on that race by being as high profile as he can in this race? Be the guy bashing Donald Trump and DeSantis every day. Raise your national profile even further. Endear yourself to major donors. (And maybe get the side benefit of being first in line if Biden does decide — for whatever reason — to bow out.)
The strategy is not without risk. While the Biden people may be totally cool with the role that Newsom is currently playing, that can, of course, change.
The danger there is that come 2028 — assuming Biden runs in 2024 — he and his people may carry a grudge, and make sure that Newsom doesn’t get the support of the former president’s network.
Of course, Newsom may already believe that the Biden camp will be with Harris in that race and, therefore, he has little to lose by being a little more high profile and, well, out there than the Biden people might want.
There’s a whole bunch of moving parts. But the big takeaway is that Newsom wants very much to be in the mix — and is working to put himself there.
Writing from the East Coast I like Newsom and certainly would consider him a contender for 2028. It will be interesting to see if he spends the next year campaigning not only for Biden but for other Democrats -- collecting chits in the process.
Dude looks like he's from Central Casting...
...and Matthew McConaughey's cousin.