Who has the most to lose in the GOP debate, ranked

24 hours to go!

(Ron DeSantis)

We now know the shape of the field at Wednesday’s first Republican presidential debate.

The Republican National Committee announced Monday night that 8 candidates had qualified:

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

• Former Vice President Mike Pence

• Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

• South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy

• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum

• Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

While all candidates of those candidates will be on stage in Milwaukee tomorrow night, not all of them will have the same level of expectation surrounding their performance. For some, this debate is a make or break moment. For others, just making the stage is accomplishment enough.

Below, my rankings of the candidates with the most at at stake in tomorrow’s debate.

1. Ron DeSantis: Nothing — literally nothing — has gone right for DeSantis in the race so far. From his failed Twitter X announcement to the leaking of his debate strategy, it’s been all bad. DeSantis has rebooted his campaign at least three times, the most recent being earlier this month when he changed campaign managers. In short: he desperately needs a new narrative in this race and the debate is his best chance to start making one. Due to his poll position — second behind Donald Trump nationally and in early states — DeSantis will be center stage on Wednesday night and should get a lot of questions thrown his way by the moderators. He will also likely be the focus of the other 7 candidates on stage — all of whom will be trying to make a name for themselves by picking a fight with him. This looks to me like DeSantis’ last, best chance to turn his campaign around. A poor showing in this debate and I am not even sure he makes it all the way to the Iowa caucuses.

2. Nikki Haley: The former South Carolina governor has talked up the debate for a while now — insisting that the race doesn’t even really start until the candidates take the stage tomorrow night. All of that talk increases the pressure on Haley to perform well — especially given the fact that her campaign has not taken off in the way she would have hoped. Haley was one of the first candidates into the race but has stayed stuck in mid single digits while the likes of Scott and Ramaswamy have soared past her. She is widely seen as a candidate with significant potential but at some point you have to show and prove that you are up to it on the big stage. And there is no bigger stage in the race to date than the one in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

3. Mike Pence: The former vice president is the most experienced debater on the stage, and he has to hope it shows. A few weeks ago it looked like a coin flip as to whether Pence would even make the debate stage, a worrisome sign about the lack of buzz (and money) surrounding his campaign. It remains to be seen — at least for me — how Pence fares in what is likely to be a bit of a free-for-all debate; his somber, serious vibe may not work as well in this kind of format. But, make no mistake: Pence needs some sort of breakthrough on Wednesday night. Will it come around questions about his role on January 6? Can Pence step up and own the stage in that moment?

4. Tim Scott: Scott has slid into contention in Iowa — and, to a lesser extent New Hampshire — on the back of two things: 1) A relentlessly positive message and 2) heavy TV ad spending. The question on Wednesday night for Scott is the same as the broader question surrounding his candidacy: Can he take a punch and will he throw one? While Scott won’t be the center of attention — DeSantis will play that role — I could see the likes of Haley trying to take a shot at him. How does he react? My guess is Scott will continue to try to remain above the fray — under the belief that it’s his best way to keep gathering support in Iowa and beyond. Plus, a strong debate performance would be helpful for Scott but is probably not necessary.

5. Chris Christie: The entirety of Christie’s campaign to date has been to take down Trump. And while the former president remains in the stratosphere in polling, there’s some evidence — in New Hampshire at least — that Christie is finding some buyers for what he’s selling. But, Trump won’t be on stage tomorrow night. Which presents Christie with an interesting question: Does he spend his time hammering away at the frontrunner anyway? Or does he turn his attention to the next in line aka DeSantis?

6. Vivek Ramaswamy: Ramaswamy enters the debate as the candidate with the most momentum in the field; national polling now put him solidly in double digits and making up ground rapidly on DeSantis. My sense of Ramaswamy at this point is that he is playing with house money, and that sort of loose and carefree approach will likely work well for him in a debate format. It’s worth noting here that Ramaswamy has never faced a moment this big and certainly never participated in a debate like this one before. But, as judged by his debate “preparations,” he does not lack for confidence in his own ability. If I had to pick someone who will be the story coming out of the Republican debate, I would pick Ramaswamy.

7. Asa Hutchinson: Look, I am surprised that the former Arkansas governor even made the stage. And I am not sure he will qualify for the next debate next month. For Hutchinson then, this may be a singular opportunity. He will almost certainly use it to introduce himself to Republican voters, many of whom — if polls are to be believed — don’t know him. Hutchinson also has been one of the few consistent critics — along with Christie — of Trump to date in the race. It will be interesting to see whether he uses his likely limited opportunities to go after the former president or not.

8. Doug Burgum: The North Dakota governor deserves credit for how he made the debate stage; he sent a $20 gift card to anyone willing to make even a $1 donation. Maybe not the best economics but it got him a spot on stage. Burgum has literally nothing to lose in the debate since a) no one knows him and b) no one expects anything out of him. You would think that might make Burgum take a rhetorical risk or two — go hard at DeSantis, maybe? — but that seems against his personality.