Why do people vote for Trump, part 3

A Trump voter emails.

At worst, Donald Trump is going to get 46%-ish of the national vote in 31 days time.

In an attempt to better understand the logic behind those Trump voters, I put out an open call for people backing the former president to write in and tell me (and us) why.

The first of those explanations is here. The second is here.

I offer another below — via an email from a subscriber that I received earlier this week. He asked that I withhold his name but said it was ok for me to post his thoughts. They are below.

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Here’s the email from a Trump voter:

I’m a life-long Republican, but I didn’t support Trump in 2016 (I protest-voted for Evan McMullin). Then in 2020, I reassessed my vote: after four years of Trump, the outcomes really didn’t seem that different from what would be expected of a generic Republican president. The sky hadn’t fallen (January 6th, of course, came later). So I voted for Trump. After January 6th I had to reassess again, but I’ve come largely to the same conclusion this time around.

I’ve boiled my support down to three major points:

1. There is no "moral" choice for me. Democrats have really pushed this idea that Trump is unacceptable, dangerous, a threat to democracy, etc., so of course you have to vote for their candidate by default. But while I’m sure these arguments make a lot of sense to Democrats, they aren’t compelling to people like me at all. I won’t get into my personal views, but there is plenty in both parties that I can’t in good conscience support. So “fitness” is just not a decisive consideration. It’s much more just a question of “Who agrees with me most?” Both candidates are mostly known quantities policy-wise. I don’t expect a second term for Trump to be radically different from his first. And if it is, I would probably support the differences. Similarly, I expect a Harris first-term to be very similar to Biden’s. I don’t believe Harris’ sudden shift to the center is real, but I don’t believe her over-the-top lurch to the left four years ago was real either. For the most part, I feel like I know what their presidencies would look like, and Trump’s is closer to my values.

2. Media bias and information unskewing. The last couple of presidential elections, there have been efforts on both sides to “unskew” unfavorable polls. While this has generally been done poorly and rightfully gotten a bad rap, it’s a fundamentally sound concept (538 and Nate Silver basically do the same thing just with more rigor). But what’s gotten less attention is that people do the same thing with information. I still get much of my news from mainstream (i.e., center-left-biased) sources, so when I saw the headlines this morning that the vice presidential debate was a draw, I thought, “Oh good, that means J.D. Vance won.” I read all the news that way, almost subconsciously adjusting for the usually all-too-apparent liberal bias. This is why “fact checking” doesn’t work and is viewed with such derision on the right. Before I even hear the words, I see the source, and I adjust accordingly. This isn’t ignoring facts, or self-delusion, though I certainly have my own biases. But I have my own eyes too, and I can draw my own conclusions. Which means when I hear news about Trump, I don’t hear it the same way as people who share the same biases as the reporters. I absolutely believe in objective truth, but all too often, I don't believe the fact checkers have it. All of this is just to say it’s not as big of a leap for me to support Trump, because I perceive fewer “facts” against him.

3. Political tribalism. I was raised Republican, and I don’t want to be a Democrat. I don’t relate to that worldview. I believe it was back around 2010 or so when the Tea Party movement started trying to tear down the traditional Republican establishment. I remember thinking, “Why can’t these guys get in line? They should just get on board with the majority so we can get things done.” I often remind myself that the majority has changed, and I should keep my own counsel. Yes, there are things I disagree with, but fracturing the party just reduces the likelihood that I’ll see the changes I want. So I suck it up and vote with the majority. That’s politics. The pull of the tribe is strong.

So why am I voting for Trump? Mostly for the same reasons anyone ever votes for anyone. I believe he’ll best represent my interests, and that’s really my only consideration.