Chris, excellent summary of why third party’s are difficult and never succeeded. The only thing you could have added is that through out the last 150 years when third party’s begin to gain traction with a policy or idea, those policies or ideas are incorporated into the existing two party system. In other words either the Democrats or Republicans adopt the drivers behind a third party and therefore its reason for existing fades away. Again good presentation and welcome back from Seattle.
Yes, the Democratic party in Missouri (and we ware not the only state) is struggling to find people to run in the rural areas, and at the state level. If no one will run, there is no one to be able to vote for, therefore, the GOP continues its super majority it has held for a generation.
Yes, that’s a good point, Mary. The America Party can be an effective alternative in an extremely Red or Blue constituency where the “out” side is taboo. Like the recent Nebraska senate race where an Independent challenged the Republican and no Democrat ran
In your history of third parties you neglected to mention George Wallace's 1968 president run where his "American Independent Party" actually won several states and 46 electoral votes.
Chris had identified one problem with a Third Party but there are others. There’s the ingrained institutional advantages the two parties have written into law at the state level. But most important in our polarized times, a vote for the America Party might throw an election (in our dumb “winner-takes-all” voting system) to the other major party. So a Third Party only makes sense with a Ranked-choice voting system.
Why would anyone want a party associated with Musk? Has everyone forgotten his Nazi salute, his strong support for the AfD Nazi party in Germany? How about his use of DOGE to cripple or destroy federal agencies that were looking into improprieties associated with his companies and federal contracts.
I generally agree with you here, Chris. But one example from the past gives me pause: in '92, Ross Perot came closer than anyone has since to winning as a third-party candidate, and he did it with a truly national campaign for the presidency. Arguably, he could have won (or at least won enough states to send the election to the House) if he hadn't briefly quit the race that summer. Winning the presidency isn't the same as successfully starting an enduring political party, but it sure would make that more likely.
Again, I think you're likely correct. But I think there are rare circumstances when it can work to start with the Presidency.
We do need a third party. But for all the reasons Chris mentioned, it's impractical -- at least in the short term. And any political party created by Musk won't get much traction with center-left people like me because we know he's just another corporate billionaire.
What I personally think needs to happen is that the current Democratic party needs to collapse and a new party needs to rise from its ashes -- essentially, a full-on rebranding effort restructuring the party around one central plank: tax the top 5-10% at rates not seen since the 1950s. Tons of people (from all political backgrounds) can get behind that platform.
Late-stage capitalism is not popular. And UBI will be needed before long. We need a party that can speak to those needs (and that's not the Dems or MAGA).
“A political party needs to have a set of beliefs”. Really? - the Democratic party’s belief for the last 10 years has been “Donald Trump is bad”. The MAGA (Republican in name only) party’s belief is “I support Donald Trump no matter what he says or does”.
I would think it should be easy to come up with SOMETHING else.
I don’t think people like Elon, but I think potential candidates would like his money.
That is exactly what Biden ran on in 2020 and half way what Dems ran on in 2024
The big reason Trump won in 2024 was the left behinds They felt ignored by the Democrats
The other thing that no one talks about is the assassination attempt. Trump got up with blood running down his face, pumping his fist and yelling fight, fight fight. That cinched the deal right there
What color is the sky on your world? Back here on Earth Democrats run on battling climate change, supporting education, defending democracy (both here and abroad), public health, sensible gun laws... You know, all the things Trump and his wrecking crew are hellbent on destroying.
True that but still, the growing divide between Democrats and Republicans is actually making the independent and centrist voter groups bigger. A trend hints that soon a strong third party is likely to pop up eventually, or even, maybe definitely.
I would only add that since 1968, we’ve had two 3rd party attempts which began at the top and altho they lost, they set the bar for successful runs: Wallace ran as an Independent, carried a bunch of southern states (with their electoral votes), denying Humphrey a potential victory (Southern Democrats still existed) and narrowing Nixon’s margin of victory. The other was Perot in 1992, where he headed the Reform Party, and altho he carried not one state, did garner 20 million votes, denying Bush41 a victory and narrowing Clinton’s margin of victory.
You're right, Chris. What one person calls "independent" or "moderate" won't match other people's understanding of those terms.
Beyond that, of course, Democrats and Republicans have, in all fifty states, passed laws making it extremely difficult for independent candidates to get on the ballot.
Third parties must fulfill a usually steep set of requirements in order for their candidates to appear with their partisan affiliations.
Just an observation: I doubt that any party Musk is associated with will conform to what most people consider "moderate."
He'd be best served to focus on the House. Many of the "worst" people in government are there. Unhappiness with the GOP/MAGA portends a Blue Wave in 2026. While I want that to happen, if I'm Elon I think that targeting the House seats that are most at risk could be a good plan. Like the Democrats though, it requires him/the new party to find good candidates. They can't be nut jobs of a different flavor.
Early in an election cycle people survey the scene, observe the fallible human beings nominated by the two parties and tell pollsters that they would like an alternative. What they have in mind is some version of their dream candidate- a fantasy combination of Lincoln, Washington, Jimmy Stewart, FDR, Martin Sheen, whoever.
What happens next is that people read these polls and take them seriously. And so they nominate someone who turns out not to be Harrison Ford in Air Force One, but a real, and therefore fallible human being, with policy views that may not appeal to them, and in any event, do not permit them to project their fantasies onto the candidate. Who, oh by the way, has no chance of winning.
And so, people who in the spring told pollsters that they wanted an alternative to the Democrats and Republicans, end up voting for the Democrats or Republicans, the politicians who believe the polls end up disappointed. Again.
>Why Elon Musk's "America Party" won't work
Because Democrats and Republicans both don't like him. There.
That *was* shorter, Sam ;)
Chris, excellent summary of why third party’s are difficult and never succeeded. The only thing you could have added is that through out the last 150 years when third party’s begin to gain traction with a policy or idea, those policies or ideas are incorporated into the existing two party system. In other words either the Democrats or Republicans adopt the drivers behind a third party and therefore its reason for existing fades away. Again good presentation and welcome back from Seattle.
Yes, the Democratic party in Missouri (and we ware not the only state) is struggling to find people to run in the rural areas, and at the state level. If no one will run, there is no one to be able to vote for, therefore, the GOP continues its super majority it has held for a generation.
Yes, that’s a good point, Mary. The America Party can be an effective alternative in an extremely Red or Blue constituency where the “out” side is taboo. Like the recent Nebraska senate race where an Independent challenged the Republican and no Democrat ran
In your history of third parties you neglected to mention George Wallace's 1968 president run where his "American Independent Party" actually won several states and 46 electoral votes.
Chris had identified one problem with a Third Party but there are others. There’s the ingrained institutional advantages the two parties have written into law at the state level. But most important in our polarized times, a vote for the America Party might throw an election (in our dumb “winner-takes-all” voting system) to the other major party. So a Third Party only makes sense with a Ranked-choice voting system.
Why would anyone want a party associated with Musk? Has everyone forgotten his Nazi salute, his strong support for the AfD Nazi party in Germany? How about his use of DOGE to cripple or destroy federal agencies that were looking into improprieties associated with his companies and federal contracts.
I generally agree with you here, Chris. But one example from the past gives me pause: in '92, Ross Perot came closer than anyone has since to winning as a third-party candidate, and he did it with a truly national campaign for the presidency. Arguably, he could have won (or at least won enough states to send the election to the House) if he hadn't briefly quit the race that summer. Winning the presidency isn't the same as successfully starting an enduring political party, but it sure would make that more likely.
Again, I think you're likely correct. But I think there are rare circumstances when it can work to start with the Presidency.
We do need a third party. But for all the reasons Chris mentioned, it's impractical -- at least in the short term. And any political party created by Musk won't get much traction with center-left people like me because we know he's just another corporate billionaire.
What I personally think needs to happen is that the current Democratic party needs to collapse and a new party needs to rise from its ashes -- essentially, a full-on rebranding effort restructuring the party around one central plank: tax the top 5-10% at rates not seen since the 1950s. Tons of people (from all political backgrounds) can get behind that platform.
Late-stage capitalism is not popular. And UBI will be needed before long. We need a party that can speak to those needs (and that's not the Dems or MAGA).
“A political party needs to have a set of beliefs”. Really? - the Democratic party’s belief for the last 10 years has been “Donald Trump is bad”. The MAGA (Republican in name only) party’s belief is “I support Donald Trump no matter what he says or does”.
I would think it should be easy to come up with SOMETHING else.
I don’t think people like Elon, but I think potential candidates would like his money.
How can someone pay attention to politics and then claim that the Democrat's sole belief is "Donald Trump is bad?"
That is exactly what Biden ran on in 2020 and half way what Dems ran on in 2024
The big reason Trump won in 2024 was the left behinds They felt ignored by the Democrats
The other thing that no one talks about is the assassination attempt. Trump got up with blood running down his face, pumping his fist and yelling fight, fight fight. That cinched the deal right there
What color is the sky on your world? Back here on Earth Democrats run on battling climate change, supporting education, defending democracy (both here and abroad), public health, sensible gun laws... You know, all the things Trump and his wrecking crew are hellbent on destroying.
Because there has not been any other cohesive message from democratic leaders at the federal level. And the message worked in 2018 and 2020.
The absolute shit show of the Dems in 2024 still continues in the DNC and will bleed into 2026 unless they find a true leader and change the message.
A Musk 'America Party' would be electric!....
True that but still, the growing divide between Democrats and Republicans is actually making the independent and centrist voter groups bigger. A trend hints that soon a strong third party is likely to pop up eventually, or even, maybe definitely.
I would only add that since 1968, we’ve had two 3rd party attempts which began at the top and altho they lost, they set the bar for successful runs: Wallace ran as an Independent, carried a bunch of southern states (with their electoral votes), denying Humphrey a potential victory (Southern Democrats still existed) and narrowing Nixon’s margin of victory. The other was Perot in 1992, where he headed the Reform Party, and altho he carried not one state, did garner 20 million votes, denying Bush41 a victory and narrowing Clinton’s margin of victory.
You're right, Chris. What one person calls "independent" or "moderate" won't match other people's understanding of those terms.
Beyond that, of course, Democrats and Republicans have, in all fifty states, passed laws making it extremely difficult for independent candidates to get on the ballot.
Third parties must fulfill a usually steep set of requirements in order for their candidates to appear with their partisan affiliations.
Just an observation: I doubt that any party Musk is associated with will conform to what most people consider "moderate."
He'd be best served to focus on the House. Many of the "worst" people in government are there. Unhappiness with the GOP/MAGA portends a Blue Wave in 2026. While I want that to happen, if I'm Elon I think that targeting the House seats that are most at risk could be a good plan. Like the Democrats though, it requires him/the new party to find good candidates. They can't be nut jobs of a different flavor.
Just illustrates once again Musk's naiveté when it comes to politics.
Early in an election cycle people survey the scene, observe the fallible human beings nominated by the two parties and tell pollsters that they would like an alternative. What they have in mind is some version of their dream candidate- a fantasy combination of Lincoln, Washington, Jimmy Stewart, FDR, Martin Sheen, whoever.
What happens next is that people read these polls and take them seriously. And so they nominate someone who turns out not to be Harrison Ford in Air Force One, but a real, and therefore fallible human being, with policy views that may not appeal to them, and in any event, do not permit them to project their fantasies onto the candidate. Who, oh by the way, has no chance of winning.
And so, people who in the spring told pollsters that they wanted an alternative to the Democrats and Republicans, end up voting for the Democrats or Republicans, the politicians who believe the polls end up disappointed. Again.