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At 4:30 pm this afternoon — just 90 minutes before the filing deadline for federal candidates in Texas — Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett is expected to announce that she is running for the seat currently held by GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
As the Dallas Morning News wrote late Sunday:
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett on Monday is expected to launch a Senate bid that will dramatically reshape the race for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn.
If she files her candidacy for the seat, Crockett would join state Rep. James Talarico in the March 3 Democratic primary. Colin Allred, who ran for Senate two years ago against Sen. Ted Cruz and had said he’ll run again this year, announced Monday he was leaving the Senate race to run for the House.
That is a MAJOR problem for Democrats trying to win back the Senate majority next November.
Texas has, to date, been primarily a story of Republican in-fighting. The GOP is staging a three-way primary between Cornyn, ultra MAGA state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
The concern among Republicans is that Paxton, who is a favorite among MAGA true believers, winds up winning the nomination but because of, well, his past (and present), can’t appeal to voters outside that MAGA base. And that Paxton’s narrow band of support could put the seat in play for Democrats next fall.
Crockett’s likely candidacy changes that equation. She has made a name for herself nationally in her two terms in office thanks, largely, for her very aggressive opposition to President Trump and his party.
(Sidebar: Trump himself has taken notice — regularly attacking Crockett as a “low IQ individual” in his stump speech.)
That aggressiveness plays very well among liberal Democrats. Which means Crockett could well be formidable in a Democratic primary where should would very likely be pitted against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the party who has shown himself to be an incredibly strong fundraiser in his first few months in the race. (Former Rep. Collin Allred, who ran against Ted Cruz in 2024 and had been running for Senate this time around, switched to the 33rd District House race on Monday morning.)
The problem for Democrats? Call it the Reverse Paxton: Crockett is wildly popular among liberals. But she’s unpopular among much of the rest of the Texas electorate, making it very hard for her to win statewide — even against someone as controversial as Paxton.
Need proof? Over the summer, the National Republican Senatorial Committee paid for a Democratic primary poll that showed Crockett leading Allred by 15 points in a Democratic primary. (Talarico was not yet in the race.)
The poll was clearly done — and released publicly — to entice Crockett into the race, with Republicans believing she would a) be the favorite to win the Democratic primary and b) be far easier to beat in a general election.
I am loathe to dismiss Crockett’s chances before she even formally enters the race. But I will say that she clearly has a LOT of work to do to prove that she can win over the Republican-leaning swing voters of Texas.
And if Senate Democrats come up a single seat short of the majority next November, I think we may look back on today as when their chances at that 51st seat took a major hit.
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