Why Liz Cheney's doomsday prediction on Donald Trump is totally plausible

On a third term.

(Liz Cheney)

In 2016, I thought that the “Never Trump” movement was, well, overdoing it. That, yes, Donald Trump was unlike anyone who had run or been elected president before BUT there was no way he was going to do some of the more extreme things that his loudest detractors insisted he would.

Then he became president. And I spent the next four years covering Trump doing things — instituting the Muslim ban, weaponizing the Justice Department, contesting the 2020 election, inciting the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol — that were even more extreme than his critics had imagined.

And I realized how wrong I had been. How badly I had underestimated just how far Trump was willing to go to use the power of the presidency for his own personal purposes.

Which brings me to Liz Cheney — and something she said during a recent interview with the “Today” show promoting her new book.

Asked whether Trump might try to serve beyond two terms (if he is elected in 2024), Cheney responded:

There’s no question. Absolutely. He’s already done it once. ... He’s already attempted to seize power, and he was stopped, thankfully, and for the good of the nation and the republic. But he said he will do it again. He’s expressed no remorse for what he did.

Which, 2016 me might have rolled his eyes at. But 2023 me takes seriously. Very seriously.

The best predictor of future outcomes is past results. If, say, I have run a 6-minute mile in the recent past, my chances of doing so again are far greater than if I have never come close to running a 6-minute mile (or even tried to do so).

Trump has already tried to overturn an election once. And he came a hell of a lot closer to doing so — only a waffling Mike Pence stood in the way — than many people (still) realize.

And, as Cheney rightly notes, Trump has not only expressed zero remorse for trying to knock down a pillar of democracy but instead has spent the past three years insisting that he was (and is) right about the election being stolen.

As a part of that rhetorical campaign, he has called — on at least one occasion — for the Constitution to be suspended.

Wrote Trump on Truth Social in December 2022:

Do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.

Do you think he’s changed that view over the past year? Um, no.

But wait there’s more! Trump not only denies responsibility for the riot at the Capitol but has, in recent months, turned to suggesting that many of the people who stormed the building were innocent freedom fighters wrongly imprisoned by a corrupt Justice Department.

“I call them the J6 hostages, not prisoners. I call them the hostages,” he said at a rally last month.

So, just to recap, Donald Trump has already:

1. Tried to overturn a free and fair election — using the powers of the presidency to do so

2. Suggested the Constitution be terminated

3. Fomented a violent riot designed to stop the electoral college count

4. Insisted that the rioters are victims of a biased justice system

Then there’s what Trump has said about serving more than two terms. Which is, well, a lot.

In 2018, Trump gave a closed-door speech at Mar-a-Lago to Republican donors in which he said this of Chinese President Xi Jinping: “He’s now president for life. President for life. No, he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday.”

The next month, in a rally with Republican members of Congress, Trump said this:

We’re cutting record numbers of regulations – we’ve cut more regulations in a year and a quarter than any administration whether it’s four years, eight years, or in one case 16 years. Should we go back to 16 years? Should we do that? Congressman, can we do that?

That, er, “joke,” caused quite a bit of controversy. To which Trump responded (bolding is mine): “You know the last time I jokingly said that the papers start saying, ‘He’s got despotic tendencies,’ No, I’m not looking to do it. Unless you want to do it, that’s OK.”

It didn’t stop there.

In 2019, at an event where Trump was given an award from the Wounded Warrriors group, he said:

Well, this is really beautiful. This will find a permanent place, at least for six years, in the Oval Office. Is that okay? … I was going to joke, ‘General, and say at least for 10 or 14 years, but we would cause bedlam if I said that, so we’ll say six.’

And then, later that same year, Trump took to Twitter to make the third term case:

A poll should be done on which is the more dishonest and deceitful newspaper, the Failing New York Times or the Amazon (lobbyist) Washington Post! They are both a disgrace to our Country, the Enemy of the People, but I just can’t seem to figure out which is worse? The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT), both of these horrible papers will quickly go out of business & be forever gone!”

Earlier this year, NBC’s Kristen Welker asked Trump directly whether he would — under any circumstances — consider a third term, in light of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ attack on him that he could only serve another four years.

“No,” Trump responded. “Just so you understand, when DeSantis says that, he’s not your man. He’s not your man, I know it because he’s a very untalented guy.”

Well, I’m convinced!

Look. I got out of the surely-Donald-Trump-can’t-or-won’t-do-that business a while back. I genuinely believe he will do whatever he believes a) is best for him and b) he can get away with.

If you are following the reporting on Trump’s plans for a 2nd term — the New York Times is doing yeoman’s work in that space — it’s become apparent that he is looking to pick up where he left off in 2020, using all levers of the government to reward his friends (and himself) and punish his political enemies. And that there will be far less opposition to do just that than he encountered in his first four years in office.

As the Times concluded:

What would be different in a second Trump administration is not so much his character as his surroundings. Forces that somewhat contained his autocratic tendencies in his first term — staff members who saw their job as sometimes restraining him, a few congressional Republicans episodically willing to criticize or oppose him, a partisan balance on the Supreme Court that occasionally ruled against him — would all be weaker.

As a result, Mr. Trump’s and his advisers’ more extreme policy plans and ideas for a second term would have a greater prospect of becoming reality.

So, yeah.

And, to be honest, it’s not all that hard to imagine how Trump would sell a third term to his supporters. Here’s how my my friend Jonathan V. Last conceives of it:

A lot of people are saying that, actually, I could run again. I was treated so unfairly during my first term—the Russia hoax, the witch hunt, the lovers—more unfairly than any president in history. [sniffs] And so I should get a third term. Let me tell you that we’re looking into it and we’ll have a statement very soon. It’ll be a strong statement. And I think a lot of you are going to be very happy with it.

Right? Would it shock you?

If it would, you haven’t been paying attention.

The point here is that Cheney isn’t some crank who “Trump Derangement Syndrome” is leading her to make wild claims. Trump himself has said and done plenty of things that would lead any rational person to conclude that he would, at the very least, look into how he could stay in office beyond 2028. At the very least.