⏰ Programming note: I am doing a Substack Live interview with former Rep. Rahm Emanuel at 4:30 pm eastern TODAY. It’s the latest episode of my show “Out of the Wilderness,” where I talk to prominent Democrats about what went wrong in 2024 and how to fix it going forward. You can watch LIVE via the Substack app.
Man do I love elections!
Tuesday was the first big election night of the year and the first test of how voters are reacting to the early months of Donald Trump’s 2nd term.
That reaction? Um…
At least for Republicans, that is!
While the party won both of the special elections for House in Florida, both GOP candidates drastically underperformed Trump’s showing last November. And in the swing state of Wisconsin, the Democrat-aligned candidate cruised to a 10-point victory over the Republican candidate, a major shift from Trump’s narrow margin in the state last fall.
I went through the results and the coverage and, as I will do after every major election night this year and next, picked out some winners and losers.
While these posts will be behind the paywall in the future, I wanted to make this first one FREE to all subscribers so you could see what you’re missing if you aren’t an investor in me and this newsletter!
Speaking of which, you should become a paid subscriber today! I am an independent news creator — calling balls and strikes no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing. Now more than ever you need people willing to tell you what you need to hear, not just what you want to hear.
To the winners — and losers!
Winners
Democrats: It’s been a pretty rough stretch for Democrats since November 2024. The party’s brand is toxic. They are leaderless. The base is unhappy with the party establishment. The party NEEDED a moment like Tuesday — a clear win that helps them start to build momentum. Is it a panacea? Absolutely not. But it’s a step in the right direction.
Decision Desk HQ: Yet again, the folks at Decision Desk — led by founder Scott Tranter — called the races first and right. DDHQ doesn’t get as much press attention as some other race callers but man they just don’t miss.
2017 comparisons: In our chat on Monday, Chuck Todd suggested that 2025 is starting to look a lot like 2017 — when Democratic over-performance in a series of special elections presaged a Democratic takeover of the House majority in 2018. Are we there yet? No. But the results in Florida and Wisconsin on Tuesday are in keeping with a series of other results we have seen this year in downballot races — Democrats just keep doing better than the baseline numbers in these districts and states.
Wisconsin TV and radio station owners: The price tag for the Wisconsin race is going to be well over $100 million. That is stunning. And the vast majority of that money got spent on TV and radio ads — a massive boon if you owned one of the stations where that money was spent. And the future looks bright. There are state Supreme Court races in Wisconsin in April 2026 and April 2027 too!
Losers
Elon Musk: It never made political sense for Musk to make the Wisconsin race about him. Democrats HATE him and he’s not particularly popular among independents. His donations — upwards of $20 million — are one thing. But to go to the state and campaign 48 hours before the election, given his poll numbers, is insane. Musk either believed he could buy peoples’ affection or that talk of his unpopularity was overblown. Neither turned out to be true. Look, Musk is still plenty rich. And he’s not an elected official so he doesn’t need to worry about what this defeat means for his political future. But voters sent a very clear message about Musk on Tuesday night: We don’t want you around. And you can bet Donald Trump was watching and listening.
Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden: The Wisconsin Supreme Court will be the final voice in the redrawing of the state’s congressional lines in 2031. And Tuesday night’s results means that there will be a 4-3 liberal majority on the court when the time comes to remake the districts next decade. Van Orden has said he and Steil are the two most likely victims of a Democratic-friendly redraw. Look for one or both of them to look for other opportunities over the next 5 years.
Rep. Elise Stefanik: Trump pulled Stefanik’s nomination to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations at least in part out of fear that the party might lose one of the Florida seats. While neither victory was overwhelming, Republicans held on to both. Which means Stefanik loses out on a gig she badly wanted for, well, not much.
The Trump coalition: One of the key questions about the future of politics is whether or not the coalition of young men, non-white voters and non-college educated voters that turn out to vote for Trump will turn out to vote for other Republicans. Tuesday night — especially in Wisconsin — is a data point (and only a data point) that suggests the answer to that question is “no.”
Elon crashing and burning couldn’t have happened to a more deserving asshat. The sooner T kicks him to the curb the better the country will be.
idk Chris, Democrats were supposed to have all this momentum in that Florida race, yet lost by 14 pts. Feels like they once again raised all that money and once again flushed it
The GOP was supposed to win both FL districts by huge margins since they are DEEP red districts.
Randy Fine won by 14 points but just last year the GOP won by 30. In Matt Gaetz’s old district, Democratic House candidate appeared to have won a county that Mr. Trump had carried last fall by 19 percentage points, though she lost the seat overall.
Wisconsin was the only statewide election, and turnout for an election for a JUDGE was through the roof, being reported as the highest-turnout WI Supreme Court election EVER.
Despite Musk’s millions and him elevating this as a referendum on Trump’s second-term agenda and claiming nothing short of “the course of Western civilization” and “the entire destiny of humanity” were on the line”, the liberal won by TEN POINTS.
This is not only a “canary in a coal mine” warning, this is a BLARING BULLHORN to the GOP.
They lost by 30 in November in the same places. That is a big improvement, considering Trump is still in his "honeymoon" period. Dems can't win EVERY race!
+30 and +37, to be exact. Certainly seems like *someone* isn’t happy with the direction of our country, right?
They can't win every race, but the hope was this race would be close and instead he won easily. They raised all that money for nothing.
The money wasn't wasted. By keeping the races close the weakness of the Trump/Musk/MAGA coalition was exposed. That gives Dems valuable talking points and builds momentum for both campaigns and fundraising.
Having to say Republicans "underperformed" in a key victory (Where DEMs outspent 8 to 1) which retained the house majority doesn't add up.
I think the highlight is the tight margin — but I agree that it might be reading too much too quickly. However, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election seems more interesting, though not representative of the broader electorate.
Sure it adds up, if you understand both simple math and politics. When the 2 Florida elections, in SOLID red districts, were victories of +14, when Trump took those districts by +30 and +37 just a *few* months ago, and Trump was worried enough about the outcome that he yanked Stefanik’s nomination, you have to look at that and say that it certainly *appears* that voters are expressing their concerns about where the Trump administration is leading us.
“Prices will come down on Day One, and it will be very easy to do”. However, prices are dramatically up as is inflation. “I’ve never heard of Project 2025”. However, virtually *everything* he’s doing by Royal Order (oops I meant Executive Order!), is LITERALLY from the Heritage Foundation’s playbook. “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again.” However, Trump and his surrogates in the right-wing media are NOW all saying that we will have go through some “short term pain”, ie what economists are predicting will be a substantial recession that will last years. I could go on, but I think the point is made.
Leva, if you can’t see the MASSIVE difference between what Trump was “selling” you in the election, and what the ACTUAL results of his policies are doing to our economy (I’m retired and my investments, ie the source of my income, have taken MASSIVE hits), then I’m not sure what to say, other than YOU own this.
Super excited for your live chat today, and interested to hear from Rahm Emanuel!
Same
This analysis is why I subscribe. Thanks Chris.
My man Scott Tranter has come a long way since I knew him back in the early aughts!
He is the best.
Yes as a Democrat I was quite pleased with last night. Besides the result in my neighboring Wisconsin, I was pleased to see the voters didn't act like they were bought and paid for by the Chainsaw Massacrist. You pretty much covered it all, Chris, thanks.
Trump’s presidency is toast. He is now the lamest of lame ducks. It’s all his own doing, with the incredibly stupid co-presidency of Elon Musk and a plethora of incredibly dumb shit.
When your whole administration is run by a bunch of billionaires and you keep on doing things that help them and hurt (badly) regular folks, it exposes the Trump SCAM of ‘standing up for the little guy’.
The main reason Trump won in 2024 was for (falsely perceived) good stewardship of the economy. He’s nothing of the sort, but he lied his way into that charade. Plus, the specter of inflation that was already tamed.
EVERYTHING he has done since Jan 20th is the OPPOSITE of good stewardship of the economy, and the OPPOSITE of maintaining relatively low inflation while taking a chainsaw to the services that regular folks rely on and like.
Even DUMBER is threatening Social Security with CHAOS and CUTS to service.
A substantial percentage of voters are ITCHING to send this idiot a message.
The Trump Tax Increases (aka: tariffs) are going to make it worse and worse.
Just today on my neighborhood Next Door forum, the reality of the Trump Car Tax is taking hold when a poster complained that a used car they were about to buy price went up with the dealer blaming it on Trump’s tariffs.
Yes, the Trump Car Tax will increase prices on ALL cars. New or used, imported or not.
This is simply supply and demand 101 which dictates prices.
The fact is that the Trump Tax is going to increase demand on used cars, with the supply staying the same or going down (less people willing to pay the Trump tax, so fewer cars being traded in)
Supply and demand dictates, the price of used cars go UP along with prices of ALL cars.
Trump is sabotaging his own presidency because he was never suited for the job in the first place and he knows a LOT less than he arrogantly (and delusionally) thinks he does.
TDS
Wow. A very cogent and detailed argument and what is Dutch’s well-thought, detailed, and insightful response? BWAHAHA!
The last refuge of a MAGA Cultist who as Matt Labash observes...
Being accused of having TDS. is "a sad, hoary little cliché that provides the illusion to quarrelsome Trumpsters that they’ve settled an argument that they’ve already lost."
And....
"when accusers charge Trump Derangement Syndrome, I can’t help but think what’s actually going on is Trump Deflection Syndrome on their end: them wishing/hoping that whatever critiques normies raise can be deflected and blamed on others as an unhealthy obsession or monomania. When most often, it is just a natural inclination to point out the absurd, as absurdity abounds when Trump is on the scene, which he has been, nonstop, since his descent down the golden escalator — having now provided nearly a full decade’s worth of unrelenting Trump news cycles."
"Cage Match
Trump Derangement Syndrome vs. Trump Deflection Syndrome "
https://mattlabash.substack.com/p/cage-match?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=405845&post_id=150543981&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=7jk34&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Steil might be the most endangered. From what I know about Wisconsin, that district—Paul Ryan’s old district —is probably the easiest to tweak without being stupid or illegal about it. Get rid of Elkhorn and Lake Geneva, and push it closer to Milwaukee, and Steil goes bye-bye. Though he might be gone before then—Trump barely won it the last three times.
I was watching a black commentator on CNN this month. He is a Republican strategist. He said the results in Florida were negative news for the Republicans
I am on the fence on these elections. First of all trump pulls votes no one else can
Secondly I read an article that said low turnout doesn’t necessarily affect democrats more anymore. Florida being, a Conservative state, may well verify this axiom
There were probably a lot more Republicans who didn’t turn out
Finally the people running didn’t hav e the name brand of Waltz and Goetz
This state having a heavier seniors population might be more prone to cultural issues
This could all change if prices continue to go up and SS payments get screwed up
Ten years into this, why does the media still write articles about off year elections results being troubling for the GOP? The average MAGA supporter is not the type of voter who’s going to go to the polls in April to vote on the State Supreme Court. Most couldn’t even explain what the Wisconsin State Supreme Court does.
The real story is that things have gotten to the point where the Democrats are anxiously awaiting the results for offices like State Supreme Court Justices and Secretaries of State in swing states.
Why? Because it matters! As Chris said (I know! I’m agreeing with Chris! Whodathunkit? 😉), the special election wins in 2017 presaged the Democratic Party taking back Congress in 2018, so there IS a recent precedent that we should pay attention to.
Don’t get me wrong! We’re still a *long* ways from those elections and a lot can happen between now and then, but what just happened *could* be significant.
Thanks chris! I really like your take on things. Sometimes I don't like to hear everything, but you are straight up truthful. Thanks.
Last I checked, FNC’s The Five is the #1 rated show on cable news. Usually it’s just the five around the table. Yesterday they piped in Musk for the first segment for him to plead to Wisconsinites to get out and vote. He again invoked his “end of Western civilization” scare. Even liberal Jessica Tarlov kept any kind of antagonistic questions to a minimum. I knew then that the GOP was very worried about the special election in Wisconsin.
I understand the point you’re making about The Five being circumspect and thanks for watching so that I don’t have to! 😉
That said, having worked in the M&E industry for 45 years (“Media & Entertainment”), saying that The Five is the “#1 rated show on cable news” isn’t the flex you’re making it seem! Cable news viewership continues to crash and burn, and the demographic that watches Fox in particular isn’t one of those prized by advertisers (median age of viewership is 68 years old!), which is *still* where money is made (cable carriage fees are important, but *not* where the *real* money is made).
Talk about the “big fish” in the rapidly getting smaller “pond”!!
Why are the results bad for Elise?
Yes, Chris the Republicans won by 15 points in Florida instead of over 30... They didn't spend any $ as compared to the Dems... In Wisconsin, the better candidate one and the Dems spent more $ against despite the infusion of $ by Musk... The Republicans are horrible at messaging and don't do well in local and non-national elections...