Friday Mailbag!

Here. We. Go.

Happy Friday.

We made it.

And remember: No matter how bad you are feeling, at least you’re not a New York sports fan.

@nfloncbsMalachi Corley dropped the ball before crossing the goal line

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(And, yes, I know they won the game. Still….)

I answered a ton of questions below. If I didn’t get to yours, make sure to check out my Friday livestream over at my YouTube channel where I will answer a bunch more! It’s at 1 pm eastern today.

This post — and all of my work between now and the election — is FREE. But, post-election the Friday Mailbag will be behind the paywall. Now is the time to subscribe because I am running a big sale between now and Monday at midnight. It’s just $5 a month or $50 for the year!

Let’s do this!

Q: If Trump does narrowly lose, what are the 3-5 things that were prime causes? I know it’s speculation, but you are good at that, one reason I subscribe and pay.

A: Thank you. Very kind.

The MAIN cause is Trump himself. He is a deeply flawed general election candidate. Not only does he have huge amounts of baggage from all of the things he has said and done over the past 9 years but he is largely incapable of taking any sort of direction or sticking to a message.

The rally at Madison Square Garden was bad enough. Trump’s comments about protecting women — whether they want protection or not — in Green Bay on Wednesday are just tremendously tone deaf given that the GOP women comprise a decent-sized chunk of the remaining undecided voters.

I think Trump’s strategists know that. And they tell him that. And yet he just keeps doing it. Because he is his own worst enemy.

Q: For Republicans like Adam Kinzinger, Chris Christie, or Liz Cheney — who are still conservative, but not on board with the current version of the Republican Party and its leadership — do you have any thoughts about what their future could be? What about voters with a similar mind set?

A: They have no future — or no immediate future — in the Republican party. Win or lose on Tuesday, the GOP is Trump all the way down.

I see no way that the party suddenly (or even not-so-suddenly) pivots back to a place where the likes of Cheney and Kinzinger are seen as potential leaders. I think it’s more likely that they form a third party than they return to the GOP fold. And, to be clear, I don’t think it’s very likely they form a third party.

As for the GOP voters who are adamantly against Trump, I don’t think there are enough of them to organize either a revolt within the Republican party or to start another whole party.

Q: Chris, the main stream media is all over President Biden’s “garbage comment”, which is really a nothing burger. But when the WaPo runs a story this week quoting the presidents of Columbia Sportsware, Auto Zone and Stanley Black and Decker stating they will be passing the Trump Tariffs onto consumers it gets no traction. Why?

A: I think you calling it a “nothingburger” belies your political preferences. The sitting president of the Untied States potentially referring to roughly half the country as “garbage” for backing the GOP nominee for president isn’t nothing.

And, yes, I know we can play the “what about” game with all of the things Trump has said about his political opponents. And he has said many vile and offensive things.

But, the whole two-wrongs-make-a-right philosophy is one I don’t get. Biden ran for office promising to be better than Trump. So I am not going to dismiss Trump-like comments Biden make because, well, Trump has said things as bad or worse.

Q: Chris, several times during this race you have stated your belief that if Trump is reelected, there are guardrails in place that will prevent him from becoming a dictator. Given all that we've seen and heard over the last few weeks - the warnings issued by Kelly and others who served under Trump, Jeff Bezos' preemptive bending of the knee, the dark tone of the MSG rally, Trump's increasing rhetoric about 'the enemy within', etc. - do you still feel confident that democracy will survive another 4 years under Trump?

A: I absolutely do.

I understand concerns about Trump’s authoritarian leanings. And he does have them!

But I simply do not believe the media is going to disappear — there’s a big difference between Bezos nixing an op-ed and Bezos telling the reporters they can’t cover Trump critically — in the next four years. No way.

Ditto Congress. Yes, if Trump wins and Republicans win the Senate and the House, they will do lots of things Democrats don’t like — including some sort of attempt at a mass deportation system for undocumented immigrants.

But do I think Congress — even one controlled by Republicans — will sit idly by if Trump tries to dissolve the chambers? Or emasculate them so as to consolidate all power in the presidency? No way.

And then there are the American people. Yes, if Trump wins, it will be that 47%+ of the public supported him. But it’s very hard for me to believe he will win a majority of the popular vote. Which means that a majority of the public will have not voted for him. Do you think they will meekly just bow to his whims without a fight? No way.

I believe in the strength of democracy. It’s lasted 200+ years. And I think it can even survive someone like Donald Trump for another four years.

One last thing: Remember that some (many?) of the people predicting the end of democracy on TV and online are doing so because there is a whole lot of money in scaring the shit out of people. I know some of these folks truly believe what they are saying. But plenty of them are also doing it because it’s financially lucrative.

Q: Hi, Chris, you said you would assess where things stood with your Substack and YouTube channel after Election Day. What does post-Election Day look like for you and the future of both platforms?

A: Thanks for asking!

So, here’s where I am: We are at 20,100 (or so) subscribers to this Substack. I have almost 47,000 subscribers on my YouTube channel. I am doing a show — first episode airs next Thursday! — for Monumental Sports. (It’s on politicians and sports!) I am teaching at Georgetown. And I am doing some consulting work for DGA Group.

On Substack and YouTube, I am definitely going to keep doing it — for one MAJOR reason: I don’t think the issues we have in this country are going away on November 5 — no matter who wins. And I want to continue to think, talk and write about them — and share those thoughts with you all.

I think it’s vitally important that we have people who are independent and nonpartisan trying to puzzle through what’s happening in our politics, trying, as honestly and authentically as possible, to make sense of the world.

So, I am in this for the long haul. But, candidly, I also need to keep growing the subscriber base. Which is why I am running a sale through Monday at midnight. You can get a month of “So What” for $5 or a whole year for just $50!

Q: I’m done doom scrolling about the election. After voting I’m spending the next few days in Three Pines.

A: Honestly, I think this a really healthy choice! I wrote about how to not freak out about the election here. And it mentions Three Pines!

Q: Chris, with so much polling noise coming out in the closing days of the election, I feel as though my circuits are overloaded. I am therefore wondering which polling organizations you trust and which ones you disregard?

A: GREAT question. Here’s an (admittedly) incomplete list of polls I trust:

Gallup

Pew

WaPo-ABC

NBC

CNN

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics

New York Times/Siena

Q: If Kamala loses will this cause the Democratic leadership to get together and figure out what are they doing so wrong that they lost to a pathological lying felon that is slowly losing his mind?

A: I think so.

If Democrats lose to Trump who is, without question, the weakest Republican general election candidate the GOP could have chosen, I think there needs to be some significant soul-searching about the party’s brand.

BTW, if Trump loses — in an election with an unpopular incumbent president, the public trusting Republicans more than Democrats on major issues and 75% of people saying things in the country are off on the wrong track — Republicans should have that same soul-searching conversation. But they almost certainly won’t.

Q: It makes little or no sense to unsubscribe from Washington Post if your goal is to influence J. Bezos. If you want to get his attention then boycott PRIME.

I made my prediction public 2 days ago and see no reason to change it: Harris will win by substantial margin in popular vote and by a clear margin in the obsolete Electoral College. House to Dems; Senate close but could go either way.

A: Bold prediction! I think there is a 5% chance that either Trump or Harris wins easily/overwhelmingly.

As for people unsubscribing from the Post: I get your sentiment! But you are hurting the wrong people!

Bezos doesn’t give a crap if you unsubscribe. It won’t hurt his bottom line in ANY meaningful way. The Post is a rounding error on his wealth.

Know who you ARE hurting when you unsubscribe? The very journalists that you should be supporting! The people doing the hard accountability and investigative work that other organizations aren’t doing!

Trust me when I tell you that those people will feel the effects of these cancellations far more deeply than Bezos. If you feel like you HAVE to cancel your WaPo subscription, please consider subscribing to some other journalists or media organization. It’s a very dark business atmosphere out here for all of us. And we need you now more than ever.

Q: Chris explain how polling 1000 people can tell us who will win the election?

A: Sure. The 1,000 people have been scientifically selected to represent a cross section of the broader electorate. So their views should — if the pollster is modeling the electorate right — be representative of how the country views the election.

Think of it this way: When you go to the doctor and they take blood, do they have to take ALL of your blood to get an accurate sense of your health? Of course not. They take a few vials because those vials are representative of the rest of your blood.

Same goes for polling.

Q: Hey Chris - do you think that the "Liberal media/MSM environment" has grown sufficiently to counterbalance the "right wing media bubble"? I am beginning to think that it has - though the "crazies' will always find their customers. I find a lot more media (including So What?) that I trust and like to read, hear, see - than I did 4 years ago.

A: I think the rise of platforms like Substack and YouTube provide a lot more ways that content creators can find audiences.

I think the days of going to a single mainstream media news site are dwindling. The big ones — NYT, WaPo, CNN etc. — aren’t going to just disappear. They will just shrink.

This chart, via Bubba Atkinson’s great newsletter, speaks to the rise of independent creators. Just one of the 10 most popular podcasts in the country is aligned with a MSM organization.

Ok, lightning round time ⚡⚡⚡. One or two sentence answers only!

Q: I understand that if certain states are called early enough (it could happen!), declaring a winner before the late-counting states is a real possibility. All things considered, what's your best guess at when (that is, what date) we can expect to know who won?

A: If Trump wins PA, NC and GA, it’s likely called within a a day or two. Same goes for Harris. If Trump wins PA and Harris wins either GA or NC, I think it goes west to AZ and NV and we probably wait a week (at least) before we know.

Q: Why hasn't the media asked about Trump's medical issues, especially when he won't release his medical records.

A: We have. Over and over again. We can’t force him to release his medical records.

Q: It appears the Trump camp is making RFK’s anti-vax stance a big issue. Is this a good strategy when the election is a few days away?

A: No

Q: Chris, what is your favorite Halloween candy?

A: 100 Grand!

Q: Do you have a sense of what the turnout will be?

A: My friend Scott Tranter at Decision Desk HQ is saying around 140-145 million. High but not as high as 2020.

Q: Lightning round question: biggest self-inflicted gaffe for DJT destined to live in infamy next to Michael Dukakis’s tank helmet:

-“They’re eating the dogs!”

-Trump with his name on a garbage truck

-“New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here, OK?”

A: I don’t think any of them hurt him in any major way. But “they’re eating the pets” will live on the Internet forever.

Q: Hi Chris. I understand the polls are pretty much dead even for dot he polls take into account the “enthusiasm effect?” I may be way off but it seems to be there is way more enthusiasm for the Harris campaign than Trump. How will that play out in your opinion?

A: I just wrote about this last night!

Q: I remember a while back you said Trump would win if he could somehow go off the grid for a couple months. Impossible for him, I know. But it is a good thought experiment. Is his campaigning in person so frequently, even if he behaves like a semi-normal politician, hurting his chances in key states like PA?

A: I think it is. The whole I-am-going-to-protect-women-whether-they-like-it-or-not thing was one of the dumbest political moves I can think of.

Q: I would be interested in your final 1-10 evaluation of the two campaigns (as opposed to the candidates). I was surprised by your Trump 9 Harris 8 ratings before. Good lighting round question!

A: I want to give separate answers for campaign/candidate.

Trump, the candidate: 4

Trump, the campaign: 7.5

Harris, the candidate: 5

Harris, the campaign: 8.5

Q: Will the endless stream of texts and emails at least slow after Tuesday?

A: Maybe! Depends what happens!