CHRIS CRUCIAL: How Kamala Harris wins, in 1 chart 📈

PLUS: The Trump garbage truck stunt! 🚚

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1. The enthusiasm thing

When you have an election that is expected to be this close, everyone is looking for little clues that might tell us what might happen.

For me, this chart — via Gallup — could be the key to unlock and explain a Kamala Harris victory:

What the chart shows is that Democrats have a double-digit lead over Republicans when it comes to whether they are “more enthusiastic” about this election than they have been about other recent races.

Now, before I go any further, I will note this: More enthusiasm doesn’t always correlate to an election victory.

In 2020, 2016, 2008 and 2000, the party whose voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual won the White House. But that means that in 2012 and 2004, the more enthusiastic side — or at least the side willing to tell pollsters they were more enthusiastic — lost.

Still, in 4 out of the last 6 elections, an enthusiasm edge = a presidential victory.

Which makes sense! We live in a deeply polarized time — where virtually every voter aligns with one of our two tribes parties. Undecided voters are few and far between. Elections tend to be a battle of who can turn out their side more effectively.

And while turnout operations are all well and good, nothing — and I mean NOTHING — makes up for actual organic enthusiasm from your voters.

Which is why — even before the June 27 debate — I was pretty sure Joe Biden was going to lose. Because Democrats simply were not at all excited about the election.

Here’s that same Gallup chart from August — after Kamala Harris emerged as the nominee. Take particular notice of where Democratic enthusiasm was in March:

In March, 55% of Democratic and Democratic leaners said they were more excited about voting in 2024 than in past election. Once Biden was swapped for Harris, that number soared to 78%

And Democratic enthusiasm has stayed high — even as Harris’ overall poll numbers have slipped slightly over the last month.

Harris pollster John Anzalone highlighted the Gallup enthusiasm numbers Thursday morning on X, writing:

I don't think enough is written about how high Democratic enthusiasm is this election compared to previous elections. Kamala Harris has created enthusiasm with Dems as high as Barack Obama did in 2008. They know what is at stake.

Of course, Trump’s special sauce as a politician has always been the loyalty that he commands among the Republican base. His famous/infamous line that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose any support was, frankly, correct.

And it’s possible that after the whole “garbage” thing (more on that below), the Trump supporters are even more fired up and ready to go (to borrow a phrase).

But, if Harris wins, we likely look back on that first chart above and say “That’s what did it.”

2. The Garbage Truck Stunt

Was Donald Trump getting in a garbage truck — to highlight Joe Biden’s comments about the former president’s supporters — a brilliant strategic move or an idiotic photo op?

It sort of depends on who you are planning to vote for. Check out my video on it! And subscribe to my YouTube channel!

3. Some good news

The Army-Navy football game every year is must-see TV -- but its usually for the traditions and the uniforms, not the quality of play on the field.

This year is different. Both teams have been ranked — Army is #21 right now, Navy fell out of the top 25 after being blasted by Notre Dame — even as the programs remain startling anachronisms in the new world of the transfer portal and Name Image and Likeness.

The New Yorker wrote about the recent successes of the two programs. Here’s a taste:

Midshipmen and cadets who transfer in are required to enter as freshmen, with all credits lost and grueling summer training ahead. What top prospect would sign up for that? Players are likewise forbidden from doing N.I.L.—name, image, and likeness—deals. (A law forbids federal employees, which includes students at service academies, from using their public office to endorse products for personal gain.) College football has been rapidly transforming these past few years, owing to the advent of the transfer portal and N.I.L. deals. But the service academies have had to stick to the rules of the past.

That seemed to mean that Army and Navy would be left behind. In recent years, Army has been terrible. Navy hasn’t had a winning season since 2019. What hope did they have? They could not remake their rosters each year through the portal. They could not establish N.I.L. collectives or lean on their boosters. They could only promise recruits employment post-graduation—with required military service first. There are weight limits and morning formations, exam weeks and actual attendance; no online classes are allowed. The schools recruited players who were underweight or overlooked, players who could fit into their old-fashioned, run-first scheme—the triple option in flexbone formation, in which the objective is to hold the ball and use up the clock. (Army briefly switched to a shotgun offense last season, and almost as quickly switched back.) Navy’s quarterback Blake Horvath mostly received offers from Division II schools or mid-majors—to play safety or wide receiver. Army’s quarterback Bryson Daily was recruited by most schools as a linebacker. This year, neither team was projected to win more than a few games. (Then again, Air Force is usually pretty good.)

Read the whole thing. It’ll make you smile.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“We were at a mini golf place in Cincinnati, Ohio — grab my kids up, throw them in the car, and go home and load all my guns and basically stand like a sentry at our front door, and that was sort of my reaction to it.” — JD Vance on his reaction to Donald Trump being shot in Butler, Pennsylvania in July

ONE GOOD CHART

Why do Donald Trump’s many personal and ethical foibles not seem to bother lots of voters? This chart — from the American Enterprise Institute — provides a clue: Voters think all most politicians are bad people.

SONG OF THE DAY

My favorite Halloween song? “Dracula’s Wedding” by Outkast. I was STUNNED to see it make the New York Times’ list of best Halloween tunes! If you don’t know it, you need to!

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