Never been particularly interested or motivated by polls, but I think it's time to start looking at just WHO these polls are talking to. Assuming most polling is still conducted by phone, can we talk about who's actually answering those calls? The majority of American households no longer have landlines, and according to the Pew Research Center, 80% of us don't answer cell phone calls from numbers we don't recognize. Wouldn't it be fair to say that the 20% who do may not necessarily be representative of the nation as a whole?
I agree completely with you ma, Marianne. Polls and surveys are only as good and reliable as the quality of sample characteristics. The real poll is the one we has last night. I know some people may not want to believe it or have us to doubt the reliability of last night's results because the results don't just fit into their biased and preferred narrative that Biden is toast in 2024.
Yeah, I just saw it. It's not that I don't like it, but I still think my comment has merit. Not only who is responding, but how the questions are asked can have a significant impact on how people will answer. If you ask me if I think Biden is too old to be president, I'd have to say yes. But are you also asking me if Trump is too old? Still yes. Would I prefer a younger Democratic candidate? Still yes.
Doom and gloom can work a couple of different ways. It can be motivating to some, but it can be defeating to others. I just think we need to be careful of how much stock we put into some of these poll results.
I'd say (by way of supposition, no stats yet) that there was a strong youth turnout in Ohio due to two important issues for them...women's choice on their bodies and the legalization of the Nobel weed.
We will need epic turnout in 2024 to put President Biden over the finish line..if we don’t, we will wake up the morning after election day welcoming our new President, Donald J Trump. The Electoral College is not our friend. Remember how that felt in 2016? Vote. Get all your friends to vote. Help get people registered to vote. Our future depends on it.
If Biden and the democrats want to turn this around, they need to send a clear message and not sit on their laurels. They need to jump on the abortion issue, they need to refocus their message to talk about things that voters care about and go after Trump hard. Time is of the essence and it needs to begin NOW. This year will fly by, no time to waste.
…and let’s also note that Massachusetts republicans flipped a single state senate seat in a special election, increasing their presence in the 40-member body from THREE to FOUR. This loyal MA democrat is wryly amused
This election just means that Republicans need to embrace Donald Trump more closely. Look to the Senate Republican campaign who have told Peter Meijer thanks, but no thanks RINO. Only total subservience will be tolerated. Trump only failed to get Daniel Cameron elected because the McConnell stench was on him.
Look to the good people of Mississippi who have even rejected the cousin of Elvis. Trump is the only hunka hunka burning love they need.
I'd add Governor Newsom to that 2028 Democrat Presidential candidate list..............if President Biden wins in 2024. If he loses to Trump, I'm not sure that there will be much of a country left by 2028.
Chris, this VA voter is just going to take today to relish the results from last night (and be ecstatic not to be subjected to non-stop ads from that lying jerk, Siobhan Dunnavant. Don't let the door hit you, girl).
Chris, please stop trying to appease both sides in your posts. Republicans have lost a lot of support and Democrats have proven reliable and steadfast. Forget polls, they don’t truly reflect anything. Judge the candidates on their actions, their platforms and their results. If we do that then Democrats are without a doubt the best option for this country!
I disagree that Chris is 'trying to appease both sides' - he's simply presenting the issues as he sees them and I enjoy reading him precisely for that attempt at objectivity.
Stressed maybe. Not petrified. Abortion continues to be the driver, and as long as Americans in possession of their own uteri stay mad, and remember why, we at least have a good chance.
And regarding Beshear: voters in these partisan times seem happy to separate statewide and federal races. Maryland happily elects Hogan, ditto Massachusetts Baker, ditto Vermont Scott - but none would DREAM of sending those Republicans to the US Senate. For any of we political nerds eying McConnell’s KY seat in 2026, I’d guess that if yesterday’s race had been for US Senate, Cameron would have won by 10. All republicans would have to do is remind people that Beshear would give an extra vote to Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren and (gasp!) Bernie Sanders
That's been a long term trend, for sure. I mean Kansas has a Democratic governor. And for the previous 8 years, Maryland and Massachusetts had Republican ones.
I think in statewide races, candidates are more able to effectively shed their national party. MUCH harder to do that in a federal race.
So true that that has been the pattern for these Governorship races. What has also being a reliable trend is the fact that the party that wins the Kentucky Gov race has always gone on to win the Presidency. Another consistent trend line is in the Virginia senate race and the next Presidential election. The Party that wins the Virginia senate race always go on to win the Presidency .
Excellent omen for the Democrats in 2024. That's another Data point for the Democrats to be happy about(although not a scientific one)
Big losses for the MAGA school board types ... sorry, not sorry
I loled.
unfortunately not here - clean sweep for the book banning crowd
That stinks. They cleaned up here in '22.
Where are you? I haven't heard of any place yet where the crazies ran the table this cycle.
Central Pennsyltucky
Never been particularly interested or motivated by polls, but I think it's time to start looking at just WHO these polls are talking to. Assuming most polling is still conducted by phone, can we talk about who's actually answering those calls? The majority of American households no longer have landlines, and according to the Pew Research Center, 80% of us don't answer cell phone calls from numbers we don't recognize. Wouldn't it be fair to say that the 20% who do may not necessarily be representative of the nation as a whole?
I agree completely with you ma, Marianne. Polls and surveys are only as good and reliable as the quality of sample characteristics. The real poll is the one we has last night. I know some people may not want to believe it or have us to doubt the reliability of last night's results because the results don't just fit into their biased and preferred narrative that Biden is toast in 2024.
I am writing something on this right now. Warning: You won't like it.
Yeah, I just saw it. It's not that I don't like it, but I still think my comment has merit. Not only who is responding, but how the questions are asked can have a significant impact on how people will answer. If you ask me if I think Biden is too old to be president, I'd have to say yes. But are you also asking me if Trump is too old? Still yes. Would I prefer a younger Democratic candidate? Still yes.
Doom and gloom can work a couple of different ways. It can be motivating to some, but it can be defeating to others. I just think we need to be careful of how much stock we put into some of these poll results.
Chris I LIKE most of your writings and analysis but I may not always agree with them.
“… this isn’t to say that you’d rather be Democrats today than Republicans.”
Not only today—every day.
I'd say (by way of supposition, no stats yet) that there was a strong youth turnout in Ohio due to two important issues for them...women's choice on their bodies and the legalization of the Nobel weed.
I KNEW that because of abortion bans, women would be very MOTIVATED to vote. We
are sick to death of republican politicians terrorizing women and girls!!!
We will need epic turnout in 2024 to put President Biden over the finish line..if we don’t, we will wake up the morning after election day welcoming our new President, Donald J Trump. The Electoral College is not our friend. Remember how that felt in 2016? Vote. Get all your friends to vote. Help get people registered to vote. Our future depends on it.
If Biden and the democrats want to turn this around, they need to send a clear message and not sit on their laurels. They need to jump on the abortion issue, they need to refocus their message to talk about things that voters care about and go after Trump hard. Time is of the essence and it needs to begin NOW. This year will fly by, no time to waste.
…and let’s also note that Massachusetts republicans flipped a single state senate seat in a special election, increasing their presence in the 40-member body from THREE to FOUR. This loyal MA democrat is wryly amused
This election just means that Republicans need to embrace Donald Trump more closely. Look to the Senate Republican campaign who have told Peter Meijer thanks, but no thanks RINO. Only total subservience will be tolerated. Trump only failed to get Daniel Cameron elected because the McConnell stench was on him.
Look to the good people of Mississippi who have even rejected the cousin of Elvis. Trump is the only hunka hunka burning love they need.
Here's what was proven yesterday:
Polls predict. Elections prove.
I assure you that I do not want to be a republican today.
Or any other day.
I'd add Governor Newsom to that 2028 Democrat Presidential candidate list..............if President Biden wins in 2024. If he loses to Trump, I'm not sure that there will be much of a country left by 2028.
Chris, this VA voter is just going to take today to relish the results from last night (and be ecstatic not to be subjected to non-stop ads from that lying jerk, Siobhan Dunnavant. Don't let the door hit you, girl).
Chris, please stop trying to appease both sides in your posts. Republicans have lost a lot of support and Democrats have proven reliable and steadfast. Forget polls, they don’t truly reflect anything. Judge the candidates on their actions, their platforms and their results. If we do that then Democrats are without a doubt the best option for this country!
I disagree that Chris is 'trying to appease both sides' - he's simply presenting the issues as he sees them and I enjoy reading him precisely for that attempt at objectivity.
Stressed maybe. Not petrified. Abortion continues to be the driver, and as long as Americans in possession of their own uteri stay mad, and remember why, we at least have a good chance.
And regarding Beshear: voters in these partisan times seem happy to separate statewide and federal races. Maryland happily elects Hogan, ditto Massachusetts Baker, ditto Vermont Scott - but none would DREAM of sending those Republicans to the US Senate. For any of we political nerds eying McConnell’s KY seat in 2026, I’d guess that if yesterday’s race had been for US Senate, Cameron would have won by 10. All republicans would have to do is remind people that Beshear would give an extra vote to Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren and (gasp!) Bernie Sanders
That's been a long term trend, for sure. I mean Kansas has a Democratic governor. And for the previous 8 years, Maryland and Massachusetts had Republican ones.
I think in statewide races, candidates are more able to effectively shed their national party. MUCH harder to do that in a federal race.
So true that that has been the pattern for these Governorship races. What has also being a reliable trend is the fact that the party that wins the Kentucky Gov race has always gone on to win the Presidency. Another consistent trend line is in the Virginia senate race and the next Presidential election. The Party that wins the Virginia senate race always go on to win the Presidency .
Excellent omen for the Democrats in 2024. That's another Data point for the Democrats to be happy about(although not a scientific one)
Always is a dangerous predictive intoxicant.