Bill Kristol just posted a piece at The Bulwark titled "It's Abortion, Stupid." If you want a reason why women in Iowa are turning against Trump, it's because the state enacted one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country.
well, except for ALL of us (except the MAGA plants here)
We've been telling you there is a movement coming and the nearly empty DonOld rallies tell more than any polls. Folks are sick of the nonsense and chaos.
Is Kamala perfect? Heck NO!
But the alternative is downright scary. Trumpf must be seeing this, as his speeches this weekend are really desperate.
How can any media person not mention that he says it would be OK if the media was shot instead of him? Yea, he said it today in Lancaster PA!
There’s a lot to unpack in this, and I’ve read a *lot* of commentary across the political spectrum. Thanks for some very good points, Chris.
The single most important question is….. is this the actual reality on the ground? While it’s not completely unreasonable to think she could pick up IA’s 6 EC votes, given that Iowa went for Obama twice (9.54% in 2008, and 5.81% in 2012), it would still be quite the shocker!
I don’t know that I am willing to believe this will happen, as much as a little “Hopium” would help, but if so, it could be an indicator of a shift in the Midwest overall: Wisconsin usually goes with Iowa, and other states as well. With Walz being from Minnesota, we might see this trend across the region. It’s possible.
But one thing that seems certain: while it might be foolish to take the exact number generated by a poll and think you can take it to the bank, the differences in the results of the *same poll* over time definitely give you a good idea of the “momentum” of the race and how it’s shifting over time. And this is a good thing!
And as Chris pointed out, women, who have voted at about a 10% margin over their male counterparts since 1980, are out in even *more* force now and in the early voting numbers. While we can’t know exactly whether that will be for “Madame President” or not, given what we know about *actual* voting patterns since the Dobbs decision came down, it seems FAR more likely than not. And Trump, in his infinite narcissism, has done EVERYTHING in his power over the last month to alienate woman from him, whether he likes it or not! 😂. And JD Vance has just continued to drive the mail into their coffin.
All that said, and with substantial caveats, I am highly encouraged by Selzer’s results! If it’s any way indicative of the momentum of the last few days of this election, then we might just have significant enough margins of victory to make it FAR harder for MAGA to claim fraud.
To paraphrase many pundits: I’d FAR rather be us than Dutch! 🤣
My very politically savvy 50-something neighbor, who’s very well connected to women voters and knowledgeable about women voters says they are being under counted in polls and in understanding the depth of their desire to elect Harris. She is not the type to “hope.” She seeks out a variety of information to be able to make statements about the state of the election.
In 2016 pollsters missed the underlying support for Trump. In 2024 I believe (and have felt this way for a while) that pollsters are missing the support from women - all women, young and old, across the political spectrum.
You can have very sincere positions about taxes, prices, immigration, Social Security, the environment, etc, but none of that matters if you don't have your own personal freedoms - the freedom to live where you want, vote how you want, marry who you want, and most importantly, the right to make your own medical decisions regarding your own body. I think many women recognize that none of that other stuff matters if you no longer have control over your own body. Even women that may be firmly against abortion recognize that if this first brick in the wall falls, it will open the floodgates to even more rights being removed from all people in the future.
I would love it if there was a top to bottom blue tsunami on Tuesday. I don't know how many votes Kamala will ultimately receive, or how many states she'll be victorious in, but I suspect it will turn out to be far higher than anyone expected.
“Have older voters turned that strongly against Trump? (And why?) I hope we have, and as for why, well, we have lived a lifetime with values, morality, and we recognize a vicious schoolyard bully when we see one. And we don’t tolerate those who have no values or morality, and we know what you do with a bully is stand up to him. And we are smart enough to be able to see the obvious mental and physical decline.
And no one is more attuned to and offended by Trump’s boorish behavior than women over 65. Moreover, that demo- which includes my own lovely wife- has been waiting far too long for a female POTUS. Consider how nuts it is that we haven’t had one and some people keep questioning whether we should when Mexico, the UK, Ireland , Pakistan , India, Israel , etc have had women leaders.
Yes, yes, yes. And please tell your lovely wife that there are millions with her - it's time for a woman, and we are blessed that this one is so highly qualified and has plans for all the right things.
Absolutely correct, Dawn. In our home we regularly comment on the fact -- FACT! -- that Trump would not be welcome in our home for dinner, or for any other reason. We have never said that about any other president. We are decent people with standards. Trump is not a decent person...and doesn't have ANY standards at all.
Trump may have finally stirred up a hornets nest that can't be contained! The women in America are, clearly, the smart, sensible ones, and they are making themselves heard. Good on you guys..so to speak. And that being the case, we, the informed, intelligent and sane men of America are counting on you to save us...all of us..from our clueless, zero information MAGA male counterparts. We will try to make it up to you later. Thank you.
I can hardly wait to listen to you and Chuck Todd tomorrow. It is almost like being Christmas Eve when I was a kid. One note, in my home county here in MO, they put a new thumb drive the ballot scanners every morning. Last week, by noon, the drive was full. Election officials said that had NEVER happened, early or regular voting.!
Big thank you for the link to Halpern- Seltzer interview. Excellent. One side comment that reinforced something I’ve been thinking: the over 65 today 1) much different from past—we grew up fighting for voting rights, student rights, civil rights, women’s rights and against Vietnam war so taking seriously today is part of our dna and 2)we don’t think someone our age should be president, especially a 78 (or 80) year old with obvious issues. Again, thank you.
"Have older voters turned that strongly against Trump? (And why?) If they have — and it’s true outside of Iowa — then Trump is in deep trouble." I'm betting older voters (I am assuredly one of them) have turned...and may be turning more the past couple of days. If you are a grandparent and hear talk about banning vaccines and eliminating fluoride in water, your very first concern is the health and well-being of your grandchildren. Nothing is more important and nothing is more scary than the thought of Trump & Kennedy Junior getting rid of life-saving vaccines and teeth-saving fluoride in water. Thus, nothing is more important than making certain that these crazies don't get to lead America's health programs!
So many ppl have been underestimating the effect Dobbs will have on this election. Women, and the men who support us, do not take our rights being stripped away lightly.
Chris commented that Selzer is regarded as one of the best, if not the best pollsters, in America People on both sides, except for the Trump Kiss ups will tell you that
Look at her results that Chris posted
If Trump beats Harris the real point is how close she has drawn to Trump and what that indicates overall
If Trump and Vance would keep their mouths shut, or at least tone it down, they could well have had the election locked by now
By the way there was an excellent article on Trump's finances in Forbes the last couple days
He really needs to sell some stock to CYA
Dutch, what kind of candy bars are you buying all of us if Harris wins
Dutch doesn't respond to factual questions and observations.
Seltzer is fairly well known amongst polling / numbers geeks (guilty) but created quite a name for herself with the results of her latest poll. One article I read indicated that she saw the softening in Hillary's support back in 2016, but her observation really didn't gain any traction at the time. She may be an outlier or one step ahead of everyone else, but I wouldn't bet against her.
The real question is does Harris in contention in Iowa mean she’s going to blow the doors off in the Midwestern swing states and Pennsylvania? They are probably fairly strongly correlated with Iowa.
It looks like the rust belt states will stay close. But the recent NYTimes/Siena poll gives weight to comments I’ve made here before: Harris has a chance to win NC and GA. I lived in GA for 30 plus years and had offices in NC also. There is MAGA support in both states. But there are also normie Rs who are turned off to Trump. In NC , you have a nut running for Gov on the R ticket. In GA, Trump has created a lot of chaos and there are no Sen seats up and no Gov race. The normie Rs may stay home or do the right thing and help us end the Trump madness. If she wins those 2 states, she has many paths to 270
I've thought this all along. In the immortal words of Joan Crawford: Don't. Fuck. With. Women. If there's any coalition that's going to beat DT, it's the American woman. And how beautifully ironic will that be? Other than immigrants, the group he has the least respect for no matter what he says. You got Roe overturned, hopefully now you'll pay the price. The modern woman, despite her age, does not like to be told what to do by a bunch of pasty old white guys. HOW DARE YOU!
And the idea that DT will be defeated by a black, Indian woman is the cherry on top of a banana split.
Four years later, more Boomers are in the senior demographic, and we're NOT MAGAts.
Right, we’re not MAGATS, and never will be! We believe that *character counts!*
Agreed 💯, Daniel!
Bill Kristol just posted a piece at The Bulwark titled "It's Abortion, Stupid." If you want a reason why women in Iowa are turning against Trump, it's because the state enacted one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country.
Read it, very good.
Gee, who the heck could have seen this coming?
well, except for ALL of us (except the MAGA plants here)
We've been telling you there is a movement coming and the nearly empty DonOld rallies tell more than any polls. Folks are sick of the nonsense and chaos.
Is Kamala perfect? Heck NO!
But the alternative is downright scary. Trumpf must be seeing this, as his speeches this weekend are really desperate.
How can any media person not mention that he says it would be OK if the media was shot instead of him? Yea, he said it today in Lancaster PA!
Go Kamala, you got this!
And you know what is cool about this? Kamala herself said she wasn’t perfect and would make mistakes. How refreshing.
There’s a lot to unpack in this, and I’ve read a *lot* of commentary across the political spectrum. Thanks for some very good points, Chris.
The single most important question is….. is this the actual reality on the ground? While it’s not completely unreasonable to think she could pick up IA’s 6 EC votes, given that Iowa went for Obama twice (9.54% in 2008, and 5.81% in 2012), it would still be quite the shocker!
I don’t know that I am willing to believe this will happen, as much as a little “Hopium” would help, but if so, it could be an indicator of a shift in the Midwest overall: Wisconsin usually goes with Iowa, and other states as well. With Walz being from Minnesota, we might see this trend across the region. It’s possible.
But one thing that seems certain: while it might be foolish to take the exact number generated by a poll and think you can take it to the bank, the differences in the results of the *same poll* over time definitely give you a good idea of the “momentum” of the race and how it’s shifting over time. And this is a good thing!
And as Chris pointed out, women, who have voted at about a 10% margin over their male counterparts since 1980, are out in even *more* force now and in the early voting numbers. While we can’t know exactly whether that will be for “Madame President” or not, given what we know about *actual* voting patterns since the Dobbs decision came down, it seems FAR more likely than not. And Trump, in his infinite narcissism, has done EVERYTHING in his power over the last month to alienate woman from him, whether he likes it or not! 😂. And JD Vance has just continued to drive the mail into their coffin.
All that said, and with substantial caveats, I am highly encouraged by Selzer’s results! If it’s any way indicative of the momentum of the last few days of this election, then we might just have significant enough margins of victory to make it FAR harder for MAGA to claim fraud.
To paraphrase many pundits: I’d FAR rather be us than Dutch! 🤣
My very politically savvy 50-something neighbor, who’s very well connected to women voters and knowledgeable about women voters says they are being under counted in polls and in understanding the depth of their desire to elect Harris. She is not the type to “hope.” She seeks out a variety of information to be able to make statements about the state of the election.
In 2016 pollsters missed the underlying support for Trump. In 2024 I believe (and have felt this way for a while) that pollsters are missing the support from women - all women, young and old, across the political spectrum.
You can have very sincere positions about taxes, prices, immigration, Social Security, the environment, etc, but none of that matters if you don't have your own personal freedoms - the freedom to live where you want, vote how you want, marry who you want, and most importantly, the right to make your own medical decisions regarding your own body. I think many women recognize that none of that other stuff matters if you no longer have control over your own body. Even women that may be firmly against abortion recognize that if this first brick in the wall falls, it will open the floodgates to even more rights being removed from all people in the future.
I would love it if there was a top to bottom blue tsunami on Tuesday. I don't know how many votes Kamala will ultimately receive, or how many states she'll be victorious in, but I suspect it will turn out to be far higher than anyone expected.
Extremely well stated and I think you’re spot on! 👍🏻
YES!!!
“Have older voters turned that strongly against Trump? (And why?) I hope we have, and as for why, well, we have lived a lifetime with values, morality, and we recognize a vicious schoolyard bully when we see one. And we don’t tolerate those who have no values or morality, and we know what you do with a bully is stand up to him. And we are smart enough to be able to see the obvious mental and physical decline.
And no one is more attuned to and offended by Trump’s boorish behavior than women over 65. Moreover, that demo- which includes my own lovely wife- has been waiting far too long for a female POTUS. Consider how nuts it is that we haven’t had one and some people keep questioning whether we should when Mexico, the UK, Ireland , Pakistan , India, Israel , etc have had women leaders.
Yes, yes, yes. And please tell your lovely wife that there are millions with her - it's time for a woman, and we are blessed that this one is so highly qualified and has plans for all the right things.
How perfect that a woman delivers us from this evil...
Absolutely correct, Dawn. In our home we regularly comment on the fact -- FACT! -- that Trump would not be welcome in our home for dinner, or for any other reason. We have never said that about any other president. We are decent people with standards. Trump is not a decent person...and doesn't have ANY standards at all.
yes, exactly!!!! Thank you!
Trump may have finally stirred up a hornets nest that can't be contained! The women in America are, clearly, the smart, sensible ones, and they are making themselves heard. Good on you guys..so to speak. And that being the case, we, the informed, intelligent and sane men of America are counting on you to save us...all of us..from our clueless, zero information MAGA male counterparts. We will try to make it up to you later. Thank you.
Love you, Jeff!! A true, real man💖
I can hardly wait to listen to you and Chuck Todd tomorrow. It is almost like being Christmas Eve when I was a kid. One note, in my home county here in MO, they put a new thumb drive the ballot scanners every morning. Last week, by noon, the drive was full. Election officials said that had NEVER happened, early or regular voting.!
Big thank you for the link to Halpern- Seltzer interview. Excellent. One side comment that reinforced something I’ve been thinking: the over 65 today 1) much different from past—we grew up fighting for voting rights, student rights, civil rights, women’s rights and against Vietnam war so taking seriously today is part of our dna and 2)we don’t think someone our age should be president, especially a 78 (or 80) year old with obvious issues. Again, thank you.
"Have older voters turned that strongly against Trump? (And why?) If they have — and it’s true outside of Iowa — then Trump is in deep trouble." I'm betting older voters (I am assuredly one of them) have turned...and may be turning more the past couple of days. If you are a grandparent and hear talk about banning vaccines and eliminating fluoride in water, your very first concern is the health and well-being of your grandchildren. Nothing is more important and nothing is more scary than the thought of Trump & Kennedy Junior getting rid of life-saving vaccines and teeth-saving fluoride in water. Thus, nothing is more important than making certain that these crazies don't get to lead America's health programs!
So many ppl have been underestimating the effect Dobbs will have on this election. Women, and the men who support us, do not take our rights being stripped away lightly.
Dutch,
Chris commented that Selzer is regarded as one of the best, if not the best pollsters, in America People on both sides, except for the Trump Kiss ups will tell you that
Look at her results that Chris posted
If Trump beats Harris the real point is how close she has drawn to Trump and what that indicates overall
If Trump and Vance would keep their mouths shut, or at least tone it down, they could well have had the election locked by now
By the way there was an excellent article on Trump's finances in Forbes the last couple days
He really needs to sell some stock to CYA
Dutch, what kind of candy bars are you buying all of us if Harris wins
Dutch doesn't respond to factual questions and observations.
Seltzer is fairly well known amongst polling / numbers geeks (guilty) but created quite a name for herself with the results of her latest poll. One article I read indicated that she saw the softening in Hillary's support back in 2016, but her observation really didn't gain any traction at the time. She may be an outlier or one step ahead of everyone else, but I wouldn't bet against her.
Wow
Being an Elder is a calling. Iowa’s Elders take the role seriously
and followed the assignment.
The real question is does Harris in contention in Iowa mean she’s going to blow the doors off in the Midwestern swing states and Pennsylvania? They are probably fairly strongly correlated with Iowa.
It looks like the rust belt states will stay close. But the recent NYTimes/Siena poll gives weight to comments I’ve made here before: Harris has a chance to win NC and GA. I lived in GA for 30 plus years and had offices in NC also. There is MAGA support in both states. But there are also normie Rs who are turned off to Trump. In NC , you have a nut running for Gov on the R ticket. In GA, Trump has created a lot of chaos and there are no Sen seats up and no Gov race. The normie Rs may stay home or do the right thing and help us end the Trump madness. If she wins those 2 states, she has many paths to 270
I've thought this all along. In the immortal words of Joan Crawford: Don't. Fuck. With. Women. If there's any coalition that's going to beat DT, it's the American woman. And how beautifully ironic will that be? Other than immigrants, the group he has the least respect for no matter what he says. You got Roe overturned, hopefully now you'll pay the price. The modern woman, despite her age, does not like to be told what to do by a bunch of pasty old white guys. HOW DARE YOU!
And the idea that DT will be defeated by a black, Indian woman is the cherry on top of a banana split.
Talk about Karma.....
American women will protect us from Trump. Whether Trump wants them to or not!