I'm in the UK and America has the best economy in the world and has for over a year, stock markets are through the roof, unemployment at record lows and inflation, gas and groceries all down.
You've also missed #8 - Turns out half the country is into insurrection, authoritariansim and rape.
You are exactly correct, and your #8 is spot on. #1-#7 are irrelevant when more than half of the voters see cruelty as a positive factor in their choice of someone to lead the country.
Right. The majority of Americans have bought into lies about a lousy economy and refused to see with their own eyes that wasn’t the case. If Trump’s mad-talk about implementing tariffs on US importers, they will see what real inflation looks like.
Where was all that concern when bill Clinton was accused by 4 women? Or how about Joe Biden by Tara reade? LOL give me a break
Yet another delusional take from someone who has not a clue what real authoritarianism and suppression look like. Try to find someone who immigrated from an actual authoritarian regime and learn about their life
Give it a rest already. That is total bullshit nonsense. Your #8 shows that the Democrats learned nothing from this election and will continue to lose for a long time.
P.S. The US dollars purchasing power is down 20% since the Biden's term started.
Grocery, utility, gas, rent and all types of insurance ( homeowners, health, car, etc) have gone up ridiculously and maybe some grocery prices have come down a smidgen, but nowhere near pre Covid prices. Although my income is higher that it was in 2020, after the steep increases in all the things I mention above, my real income come is less than it was pre- covid. As it is for all Americans. I can get by this way but if I am a person who was living paycheck to paycheck before inflation, i am barely hanging on now. I live in the US ( I voted for Harris, but I understand why others did not). Clothing and even restaurants are way more expensive. It all adds up. Something had to give. Saying the economy is strong because wall Street is doing well ( DOW Nasdeq etc) and the uber rich are making out great on their investment income is not the same as the lived experience of the average American who is living paycheck to paycheck on a paycheck that is not going as far as it did four years ago ( most of us do not have a huge investment income over here).
Exactly. The gap will widen. I have investments because I worked my butt off, but I have not lost sight of where I used to be. I have friends that have kids and they are struggling. I think about that a lot-how can people live and raise a family? The American Dream is for everyone right?
I completely understand your frustration with rising costs and the feeling that incomes aren’t stretching as far as they used to. It’s a common sentiment, and you’re right—when we look beyond stock market performance, the lived experience of everyday Americans tells a different story.
Interestingly, a major driver of financial strain for many isn’t just inflation overall but the rising cost of healthcare. Health insurance premiums have consistently outpaced wage growth, even before the pandemic. According to a 2023 study by the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average family premium increased by 7% compared to a 5.2% wage growth. Over the last decade, while wages have risen about 42%, family premiums have increased by 47%, making it harder for workers to see the benefits of their pay raises. Not to mention the out of pocket expense in most policies are $18,000 for a family when you receive medical care.
The structure of our health insurance system also plays a role. The Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rule requires insurers to spend 80 cents of every premium dollar on healthcare claims, with the remaining 20 cents used for overhead and profit. This setup creates a perverse incentive: as healthcare costs rise, insurers' revenues grow, making it unlikely for premiums to decrease.
To illustrate the impact, stock prices for major health insurers like UnitedHealthcare, CVS, and Humana surged nearly 8% following the recent election results, reflecting the financial gains these companies anticipate, even as many Americans continue to struggle with healthcare expenses.
It's important to remember that employees do have rights under the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA) to hold employers accountable for how healthcare dollars are spent. Cases like those involving Wells Fargo and J&J highlight the potential for action when funds are mismanaged.
I totally hear and agree with this. Where I get hung up is how we are to believe that a millionaire is going to fix policy on these things. Isn't he one of the rich making out on investments?
I am not agreeing that he will make things better, I am saying this is where most people are at. It happens over and over, election after election- people vote with their pocketbooks. And they have short memories. And he will probably benefit from the trajectory that the economy has already been on.
Interesting analysis Chris. I think that bigotry has to figure into it. Harris is a woman of color. I think that has to have had a negatively affected the vote.
That’s a great point Mark! Yes, she was incredible at the debate a clear winner. So you start to think, hmmm, her campaign hid her away to keep from speaking initially. Then when forced to speak did a truly awful job. Yet the debate was incredible. Low bar everywhere when speaking, campaign realizes this and hides her, yet A+ on the debate stage. Something doesn’t add up??? Perhaps she was given the questions, hmmmm…. Happened before, remember Donna Brazil as DNC chair and HRC? Think about it, you bring up a great question with your debate statement.
I say the same thing about her lying about owning a 9MM Pistol. Harris lives in Washington, DC and aboard the Naval Observatory. If she did own a 9MM (Glock), she just admitted on national TV that she is illegally carrying a sidearm in DC. Imagine if someone asked if she met all legal requirements to carry?
A counter-point. At the debate, Harris lied by saying there were no (zero) US Troops in warzones. How can a VP be unaware that American troops were in harms way, were engaged in combat, were wounded and some paid the ultimate sacrifice. Had ABC done their jobs (or Trump had called her out) the debate could of had an entirely different outcome
Stop being silly unless you can find a fact to back up your empty allegation. Harris beat him like a drum in the debate. Sadly, that didn't translate to the general election. But, the election was free and fair as we fully expected. I don't have it in me to congratulate you but your side certainly won this time. I can only hope that we have a free and fair election in 2028.
Find a fact. Harris isn't guilty because of what Donna Brazil did. Harris is an excellent debater (that was her job for a long time) but mediocre at interviews. These are not the same skills. We all have our strengths and weaknesses.
Bob, I said can’t be proven, just an incredible outlier. You will agree she is not a gifted speaker. And was hidden initially for a reason. Her skill set is not public speaking and thinking and responding in the moment. That is very evident.
Your candidate certainly did his part to screw up that debate with all that talk about eating pets. Face those facts. He bombed that debate as bad as Biden did the first time but i dont hear you questioning whether they gave him the questions
I saw a tweet from Chris poking at someone who said something along these lines. Agree it's not the sole reason, but it certainly was a factor. Corollary to the bro vote.
This narrative is being pushed by leftists who want to avoid any self-introspection. But here on Planet Earth, it seems that Trump's gains this time around were primarily with minorities!
It was not her color. It’s because she is stupid. Can’t blame it on race and gender anymore. Getting the best person in office is the priority. She has failed the U.S. for too long. Her lack of any kind of record cost her the race.
A stupid person doesn’t get into UC law school SF or become the Attorney General of CA. Unlike Trump whose dad and brother used their influence to get him into Wharton. His father’s money and connections got him Into real estate as well.
1. People in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Charlotte (where I’m from!), and Atlanta didn’t vote. Look at the numbers. They just stayed home. Those folks come out and vote, and things might well be different.
2. The economy is NOT bad. It’s very good, actually. But the narrative of a bad economy took hold. But maybe (I don’t know) it is bad for blue collar workers and good for white collar workers (like me). But by every measure I’m aware of, the economy has been great for a year or so.
3. People won’t vote for a woman. I don’t know why (I mean, I do know why; I just don’t know why that’s how people are). It’s !&@!$ crazy and stupid and I wish it weren’t so. But we’re a sexist place and we have to deal with it.
4. Young men are inherently stupid. I know this - I use to be one.
5. People don’t understand economics. The tariffs Trump is promising will be passed along to consumers and, whammo presto, welcome back inflation.
{The economy}..."is bad for blue collar workers and good for white collar workers." And there are more blue collar folks than white collar folks. On this issue, the Dems have lost their way.
2. The problem with this economy (at least for me) is nothing feels secure. Your stable job can get "disrupted" out of existence in a heartbeat (thanks to people like JD and Elon). So even if you have a steady gig, like I did (or CC did), you may get that tap on the shoulder. That was always possible but not like it is today. Even with the good economy, we're still seeing tons of layoffs.
4. My friend had two sons in high school who got a lot of woke stuff forced down their throats. And being kids, they hated it. He told me, "we're going to have a generation of reactionaries." While I doubt his voting age-son voted for Trump, he may be right. Kids (particularly boys) like to rebel. When I was a kid, "just say no" was a big thing. It wasn't a terrible message; drugs are bad, particularly crack, which was big at the time. But we treated it as a joke.
Yes, people understand the economic situation the JB administration has put the country in, hence the vote last night. Remember it’s the economy stupid. People didn’t come out and vote bc VP Harris did not motivate them to do so, very simple. BTW, Walz was awful brought zero to her campaign.
I don’t know. In NC (where I am) a democrat won the Governor race, a democrat won the Attorney General race, a democrat won the Superintendent of Public Instruction race (where the Republican was a big Trump clone), and democrats look like they are about to win the Lt. Gov and Secretary of State race. And Democrats appear to have eliminated the Republican veto proof majority in the state house and senate.
But Trump will end up winning his race by a few hundred thousand votes. That seems like a hell of a lot of cognitive dissonance. Maybe it’s the Mark Robinson effect on all the state races - except republicans won all the congressional races they were supposed to win and all the state judgeship races (including a sixth seat (out of seven total) on the state Supreme Court).
How does all that make sense? How is that all in Harris? Or Biden? Or the economy (I mean, if the economy was such a big issue, why are democrats winning the big statewide races?).
I think it’s more complex than The Economy or The Border or Harris or Biden. But I’m not smart enough to figure it out. Maybe it’s just advertising? I don’t know.
I don't get how people could not vote for Mark Robinson for governor and then vote for Trump for President. They're both equally unacceptable! And President is the most powerful position in the world. A bad governor is bad, but nothing like a bad President.
Voting for President is the most personal vote you can make. It's the person you'll be seeing on your TV screens when there's an emergency. And maybe people felt more comfortable with Trump, a familiar TV presence, than Harris. Me, I want him off my TV. So, yeah, it makes no sense.
Let’s not let the media off the hook on number 1. Anybody who looks at economic data knows the US has been doing great for almost the entirety of the Biden administration. We also know that Foxnews never reports that because…it’s Fox. But outlets like CNN repeatedly (and I mean repeatedly) either pushed economic good news to lower headlines on their website or they paired good news with speculative “a recession is coming” hyperbole. To me this feels like an attempt at appearing “fair and balanced” when in reality it should’ve been a one sided story. So when 35% of the electorate gets news from Fox and thus is oblivious, and 34% get news from CNN which is saying “it’s good buuuttt…” that means 70% of the electorate is left with ill feelings about the economy when they truly were not warranted. CNN has inadvertently turned into diet Fox, just one calorie, by doing both sides reporting when not justified and cynically, it’s probably to try and get more viewers at the expensive of good journalism. I’ve been reading CNN.com for 23 years. After this episode, I’m done for a while and I most certainly won’t pay for it.
It's not the media's fault. Economic changes over the past decade have favored white collar workers over blue collar workers and the latter group has been mostly ignored and left behind. Of course social and cultural issues played a major role as well.
Trump inherited Obama’s economy and it was in the ditch by the time he left. Low job growth, high inflation, corporate price gouging grossly, criminally mismanaged pandemic. Biden was blamed for Trump’s economy. Trump won’t be able to hide from the damage he is about to do.
Bob, not quite true. Coming out of COVID, blue collar wages rose at a faster clip than those of other workers per the Federal Reserve. That did mean those workers felt the decline more acutely later on which might explain a negative feeling about the economy.
I mean I think all these points are correct, the question you don't answer is why. Young Men are traditionally misogynistic as well as Latin men. You can call Kamala a weak candidate but Trump is a historically awful Candidate and he just won. The fact of the matter whether we want to admit it or not is we live in a misogynistic and racially biased country and it has officially declared itself in this election. If Trump isn't a white male he does not win one state.
You were obviously unaware that Mexico just elected a woman President which makes your statement look outlandish. There was a female President in Spain, Argentina, costa rica etc.
Yes, Trump had the racist vote locked up but Obama proved that racists are a minority in our country. (They're just not a small minority.) All racists are Republican but not all Republicans are racist.
You mean like all the excuses we had to hear from trumpettes for the last 4 years ( rigged, stolen, dog ate my ballot)?? I don't get the 2 sided hypocrisy that you all live with and, your new leader, was the biggest user of excuses of all....so are you saying he is weak??
Let me add an 8th reason. And, to me, the #1 reason. That a large percentage of this country - larger than anticipated -- are either racist xenophobic misogynistic homophobic transphobic Islamophobic antiSemitic people OR are okay with having a racist xenophobic misogynistic homophobic transphobic Islamophobic antiSemitic administration as long as their own status in life is a bit better.
I'm a big fan of yours, Chris. But I am disappointed in your take (and to be clear, this issue goes far beyond "the bro vote") not more blatantly acknowledging the dark truth of our country.
Bingo, Matt! We just told the world who we are in case they didn't know. The greatest country in the world is also the most racist, misogynistic, homophobic.....
Long before this election, there's never been any shortage of people who vote against their own best interests thinking that the forthcoming negative things will not hurt THEM. Of course, in this case, they're wrong.
or maybe there is no credible threat to all these groups and they don’t buy the bs anymore? How about that possibility?
Record low black and Hispanic unemployment during trumps presidency? How about that FACT
Only racists assume Hispanics are in favor of open borders simply because the people flooding in are also Hispanic
No wonder you guys lost to the most beatable Republican twice; you just don’t get it. Still dont get it and probably never will. Better reform your party for 2028 before a normal Republican with the same platform comes along and cleans your clock nationally and locally across the board
Chris, you are missing the forest for the trees. The right wing has had a disinformation campaign for decades. The Democrats have not and we haven't been competent at fighting the disinformation. The Democrats have been defined as horrible people to the point that Republicans just can't imagine voting for one. So many Republicans have held their noses and voted for the most (fill in the blank) person possible. Somehow we have to change that narration.
That’s laughable. The Democrats literally ran a whole campaign talking about how their opponents were garbage following a Nazi and now you’re complaining that the Dems have been demonized?
This is just not true. Biden made the garbage comment and made it like a week before the election. So to some extent you prove the original poster's point. At the same time, you are hitting on one of Chris's points that the "threat to democracy" stuff did not work. I don't think it was the "whole campaign" but it became more of the campaign as time went on.
It's the economy stupid shows one thing . . . people are stupid. We have the best economy in the world, inflation is down, unemployment is at record lows and prices have dropped.
Trump's voters blamed Biden/Harris for the price of food, gasoline, mortgage rates and anything else they pay for. Guess what? No president controls those and Trump's promises to reduce those prices are lies. Everything he said he wouldn't do, like cut Social Security and Medicare or impose a national abortion ban . . . HE WILL DO!
Plus, when he starts deporting people he thinks are illegals that will probably include American citizens (yes it would be illegal but the SC says he's immune) and I think any Latino or Hispanic who voted for him may regret it.
And don't even get me started on his tariffs. People are going to be shocked when they're paying more for items because of his tariffs and those prices will make current ones seem quaint. But, somehow, they'll blame Pres. Biden.
I don't think any Dem could have gotten away from Biden, even if there had been a real primary. And so I don't think there was a perfect candidate. Whitmer, Shapiro, Buttigieg, whoever, they all under the shadow of the party and all had their own flaws. Harris wasn't a great candidate, but I'm not convinced that ended up mattering.
I am not ready to throw Harris under the bus, under the fantasy that Biden or any of his potential Democratic successors -- Gretchan Whitmer, Gavin Newsom -- could have done better. This is just chatter. I do agree that voters who have no understanding of economics, acted as if they were in a Skinner box in regard to inflation -- it stung so they blamed Biden. And the gender gap obviously went both ways. Men did not care much about the rights of women nor their empowerment. And Trump voters don't care about the rule of law, nor engage in rational policy analysis on immigration. They dont take seriously the reckless, crazy things Trump said. One can only hope that Trump doesn't either.
I’d disagree. Voters have an excellent understanding of economics. They know that it’s not about the stock market, statistics, or lines on a chart. Voters know the economy boils down to two things: job security, and paying the bills and putting food on the table. In both factors the Biden economy is a failure.
But unemployment is incredibly low so how is the Biden economy a failure on job security? I really think it comes down to inflation. My grocery bill is much bigger than it was 4 years ago. Houses are more expenses, mortgage rates and care loan rates are up. These are things that impact people every day. Those are the things they hang on to. The stock market, at least to them, has less of a day to day impact. Also, for whatever reason people trust Republicans more on the economy than Democrats.
I don't feel secure in my job. I'm worried AI will replace me, or that the company will cut expenses. It has nothing to do with unemployment being low. I'm old enough that my work options are limited.
It's just the "disruptive" moment we're living in.
I do think it is hard for older workers out there. I have seen many friends in the 55-65 range lose jobs because they have high salaries and then being unable to find new jobs despite the good economy so I hear you. Maybe that problem is not as widespread as my personal experience reflect, but I am surprised I don't read/hear more about it. With all that admitted, I don't see how Trump is likely to improve that situation. Which isn't to say it was dumb for you to vote for him. I get a vote to change or disrupt the status quo. Just wondering if you think Trump offered a solution that would help you.
Timothy - I didn't vote for Trump, and never would, for all the reasons that I'm sure I don't have to spell out. I'm just trying to get my head around this.
"I have seen many friends in the 55-65 range lose jobs because they have high salaries and then being unable to find new jobs despite the good economy so I hear you"
Yes. Which Is Gen X (my generation, as well as my age range). Gen X is also the one cohort that went the most for Trump.
Why do Gen X-ers think Trump will help? I am honestly not sure. VCs like Vance and tech moguls like Musk are a huge part of the problem.
Again, we've had three straight change elections, plus a bunch of tumultuous midterms. And I think that shows that there is a free-floating anxiety out there, and a lack of security, that is almost unprecedented, because of this constant technological change that wipes out entire industries overnight. It may not be fixable, but Trump is good at making false promises and sometimes false hope is better than no hope.
There was a story that Harris de-emphasized a populist economic message because she had a brother-in-law that worked for Uber. If true, that's just awful.
I'm a Gen X as well. Sorry for assuming you voted for Trump. It's interesting that Gen X went so much for Trump because in my friend group that was not true even among the historically conservative members of the group. Anyway, I appreciate the thoughtful response.
You made his point because everything you said isn't economics. It's choices. Many people complaining about paying the bills and putting food on the table find a way to travel and do whatever they want. Go to the airport during a holiday and witness the masses flying all over the country. People have money. Make no mistake about that.
Huh??? Where did I say they didn't. The fact people are saving less or going into debt so that they can travel, buy new cars, etc. doesn't really undermine that they feel as if the economy is worse since they are doing the same things but now have less savings or more debt.
Once Biden stepped down, even if he didn't endorse Harris, it would have been very hard for any of those people to run against Harris, who would be the odds on favorite (and was Black and a woman, in a party sensitive about such things.) A primary would have been ideal but it would have probably set her campaign back even further.
Given the size of the Democrats loss, not just Harris, I think there’s a dislike of Democratic policies nationwide in counties that are away from the population centers.
While I think that being a woman when Trump’s key supporters were men didn’t help, it’s not the only story. This really spells the end of Romney Republicans and left wing Democrats. I’m not sure any Democratic candidate would have won.
But I do think the winner here is the states. Clearly many blue states remain. Democrats were elected there too. And we will now see tension between red states, the Federal Government and blue states which continue to protect individual rights. This country really is divided.
For example, in some blue states, children can’t go to school unless they have been vaccinated. If Trump’s federal government now insists that vaccinations aren’t required, we are likely to see a back and forth between the Trump Administration and State AGs. Ultimately, though it may take a few years, it puts us on a Brexit like path IMO.
I think your point about the States is an important one. Even a mid October 2024 poll of CFOs found they were more concerned about what States are doing than what a potentially divided Washington might do (Pricewaterhouse Coopers poll)
The other aspect to remember is that the Federal Government and US Supreme Court can’t override the states on everything. The states have powers the Federal Government does not. Such as enforcing civil and criminal convictions in their state. So it’s inevitable there will be a conflict between the two at some point which IMO will cause a breach.
She lost because she was and is an awful candidate. I’ve said for months, a San Francisco liberal who changes her lifelong political views once given the nomination doesn’t and won’t ever play in the Midwest swing states! She never really had a chance. Her statement “my values haven’t changed” was/is simply ridiculous! Her hiding strategy was awful only to be outdone by her “interviews” once she couldn’t be hid any longer. The deal was sealed was she took Walz as her VP. He brought nothing. President Trump out worked and out maneuvered her in SO many ways. All the money in the world and celebrities on stage can’t fix an awful candidate. This election was really very EZ to predict, and I did for months.
Truth be told VP Harris was the very last person the Dems wanted on the ticket. JB and the Dems did this to themselves by not disclosing his mental and physical condition. The whole process since June was a slow moving train wreck from the Dems…..
I just don’t think this is the right take. As I will demonstrate. Are there any Democratic candidates you would have voted for? But now the pressure is on the Republicans to actually lower prices. Tariffs will do the opposite. But we’ll discover that shortly.
I thought she was a pretty good candidate, but like most losing candidates, from Gore to Romney to HRC, she came off as too scripted and programmed, especially against such a unhinged candidate. She didn't trust her instincts enough, like A players like Obama and B Clinton (and I hate to say it, but Trump) did.
I blame the DNC also. Biden shouldn't have run for a second term and that would have allowed the Democrats to have a primary. Where would we be this morning if they had done the right thing?
Trump voters obviously don't care about Ukraine, and hardly know where it is. As in the 1930s, American isolationism is popular again -- they don't care about the security of Europe, and are giving Putin a green light to expand his empire into Eastern Europe. They don't care about Taiwan and are giving China a green light to expand in Asia.
I'm in the UK and America has the best economy in the world and has for over a year, stock markets are through the roof, unemployment at record lows and inflation, gas and groceries all down.
You've also missed #8 - Turns out half the country is into insurrection, authoritariansim and rape.
Apparently Donald Trump is who most of America is. And to me that is deeply, deeply depressing.
Yes,I so. Depressed.i feel numb.
Imagine if FOX Noise had existed during Watergate. Nixon never would have resigned.
100 per cent. They were bitching this morning that neither Biden nor Harris had called to congratulate Dump. They disgust me.
You are exactly correct, and your #8 is spot on. #1-#7 are irrelevant when more than half of the voters see cruelty as a positive factor in their choice of someone to lead the country.
well calling 51% of the country garbage and disparaging them as unworthy of your self proclaimed virtue apparently did not work.
I'm not running for office but yes, if you voted for a rapist insurrectionist felon then you are garbage and morally deficient.
Insulting me and many millions of others may make you feel quite virtuous- doing it to my face would result in a different outcome-sniveling coward
Bitch, I'd hit you so fast you'd think your were surrounded.
What a twat you are.
From a blank pseudonym
From the same party that wants to give felons the right to vote? So which one is it? Forgiveness or condemnation?
Both. He can vote when he's served his time.
What time? There was no criminal suit; only a civil one. There’s no time served for that
But but but.... didn't he call the country a garbage can and then get in a garbage truck? Pot calling kettle black...
He can be vulgar to everyone, but Biden says one thing and we're clutching pearls?
As a subject not a citizen, it seems you simply do not understand the United States of America.
I’m an American citizen and I don’t understand how anyone could vote for such an obviously flawed person as Trump
I'm an American citizen too and I don't understand how anyone could vote for such an obviously flawed person as Kamala harris!
Then you are in a minority because for the first time since Ronald Reagan, a majority of Americans have voted for their President.
Obviously, you and I could never be friends.
I lived in the ATL with an American wife and son so pipe down.
Yes of course. Living in America gives you the right to call a majority of Americans rapists. Well done!
Just one and fuck you.
Very awkward to falsely accuse a stranger of being a rapist accompanied by a sexual violence curse. Again well done!
Russianbotsayswhat?
And fuck you.
Right. The majority of Americans have bought into lies about a lousy economy and refused to see with their own eyes that wasn’t the case. If Trump’s mad-talk about implementing tariffs on US importers, they will see what real inflation looks like.
You are correct.
Where was all that concern when bill Clinton was accused by 4 women? Or how about Joe Biden by Tara reade? LOL give me a break
Yet another delusional take from someone who has not a clue what real authoritarianism and suppression look like. Try to find someone who immigrated from an actual authoritarian regime and learn about their life
Are you replying to me? I said nothing about anything related to this comment.
Well said and I agree!
Give it a rest already. That is total bullshit nonsense. Your #8 shows that the Democrats learned nothing from this election and will continue to lose for a long time.
P.S. The US dollars purchasing power is down 20% since the Biden's term started.
Into your grandmother's prolapsed anus on onlyfans.
Grocery, utility, gas, rent and all types of insurance ( homeowners, health, car, etc) have gone up ridiculously and maybe some grocery prices have come down a smidgen, but nowhere near pre Covid prices. Although my income is higher that it was in 2020, after the steep increases in all the things I mention above, my real income come is less than it was pre- covid. As it is for all Americans. I can get by this way but if I am a person who was living paycheck to paycheck before inflation, i am barely hanging on now. I live in the US ( I voted for Harris, but I understand why others did not). Clothing and even restaurants are way more expensive. It all adds up. Something had to give. Saying the economy is strong because wall Street is doing well ( DOW Nasdeq etc) and the uber rich are making out great on their investment income is not the same as the lived experience of the average American who is living paycheck to paycheck on a paycheck that is not going as far as it did four years ago ( most of us do not have a huge investment income over here).
Saying the economy is strong because wall Street is doing well is exactly what Trump was saying his first term.
Exactly. The gap will widen. I have investments because I worked my butt off, but I have not lost sight of where I used to be. I have friends that have kids and they are struggling. I think about that a lot-how can people live and raise a family? The American Dream is for everyone right?
I completely understand your frustration with rising costs and the feeling that incomes aren’t stretching as far as they used to. It’s a common sentiment, and you’re right—when we look beyond stock market performance, the lived experience of everyday Americans tells a different story.
Interestingly, a major driver of financial strain for many isn’t just inflation overall but the rising cost of healthcare. Health insurance premiums have consistently outpaced wage growth, even before the pandemic. According to a 2023 study by the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average family premium increased by 7% compared to a 5.2% wage growth. Over the last decade, while wages have risen about 42%, family premiums have increased by 47%, making it harder for workers to see the benefits of their pay raises. Not to mention the out of pocket expense in most policies are $18,000 for a family when you receive medical care.
The structure of our health insurance system also plays a role. The Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rule requires insurers to spend 80 cents of every premium dollar on healthcare claims, with the remaining 20 cents used for overhead and profit. This setup creates a perverse incentive: as healthcare costs rise, insurers' revenues grow, making it unlikely for premiums to decrease.
To illustrate the impact, stock prices for major health insurers like UnitedHealthcare, CVS, and Humana surged nearly 8% following the recent election results, reflecting the financial gains these companies anticipate, even as many Americans continue to struggle with healthcare expenses.
It's important to remember that employees do have rights under the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA) to hold employers accountable for how healthcare dollars are spent. Cases like those involving Wells Fargo and J&J highlight the potential for action when funds are mismanaged.
I totally hear and agree with this. Where I get hung up is how we are to believe that a millionaire is going to fix policy on these things. Isn't he one of the rich making out on investments?
I am not agreeing that he will make things better, I am saying this is where most people are at. It happens over and over, election after election- people vote with their pocketbooks. And they have short memories. And he will probably benefit from the trajectory that the economy has already been on.
Fair enough. I hear that. Thanks!
Will the Liz Truss budget plan get taken up here in USA?
Interesting analysis Chris. I think that bigotry has to figure into it. Harris is a woman of color. I think that has to have had a negatively affected the vote.
Racism and misogyny! She cleaned his clock in the only debate!
That’s a great point Mark! Yes, she was incredible at the debate a clear winner. So you start to think, hmmm, her campaign hid her away to keep from speaking initially. Then when forced to speak did a truly awful job. Yet the debate was incredible. Low bar everywhere when speaking, campaign realizes this and hides her, yet A+ on the debate stage. Something doesn’t add up??? Perhaps she was given the questions, hmmmm…. Happened before, remember Donna Brazil as DNC chair and HRC? Think about it, you bring up a great question with your debate statement.
Please let's stick to fact and that is not fact or true. Please realize that 4 years of lies will kill our democracy.
Agreed, no way to prove something like that, but clearly an outlier performance
I say the same thing about her lying about owning a 9MM Pistol. Harris lives in Washington, DC and aboard the Naval Observatory. If she did own a 9MM (Glock), she just admitted on national TV that she is illegally carrying a sidearm in DC. Imagine if someone asked if she met all legal requirements to carry?
Huh? Maybe she keeps it in California.
A counter-point. At the debate, Harris lied by saying there were no (zero) US Troops in warzones. How can a VP be unaware that American troops were in harms way, were engaged in combat, were wounded and some paid the ultimate sacrifice. Had ABC done their jobs (or Trump had called her out) the debate could of had an entirely different outcome
Stop being silly unless you can find a fact to back up your empty allegation. Harris beat him like a drum in the debate. Sadly, that didn't translate to the general election. But, the election was free and fair as we fully expected. I don't have it in me to congratulate you but your side certainly won this time. I can only hope that we have a free and fair election in 2028.
It just makes you think, it was such an outlier! She was fantastic at the debate and nowhere else…..
Find a fact. Harris isn't guilty because of what Donna Brazil did. Harris is an excellent debater (that was her job for a long time) but mediocre at interviews. These are not the same skills. We all have our strengths and weaknesses.
Bob, I said can’t be proven, just an incredible outlier. You will agree she is not a gifted speaker. And was hidden initially for a reason. Her skill set is not public speaking and thinking and responding in the moment. That is very evident.
Your candidate certainly did his part to screw up that debate with all that talk about eating pets. Face those facts. He bombed that debate as bad as Biden did the first time but i dont hear you questioning whether they gave him the questions
Yes, President Trump was awful at the debate
So when Harris did extremely poorly in the 2019 DNC, was it also bigotry?
I saw a tweet from Chris poking at someone who said something along these lines. Agree it's not the sole reason, but it certainly was a factor. Corollary to the bro vote.
Yes, I think a big reason Harris lost is because many in the US do not want a woman President, let alone one of color.
This narrative is being pushed by leftists who want to avoid any self-introspection. But here on Planet Earth, it seems that Trump's gains this time around were primarily with minorities!
It was not her color. It’s because she is stupid. Can’t blame it on race and gender anymore. Getting the best person in office is the priority. She has failed the U.S. for too long. Her lack of any kind of record cost her the race.
A stupid person doesn’t get into UC law school SF or become the Attorney General of CA. Unlike Trump whose dad and brother used their influence to get him into Wharton. His father’s money and connections got him Into real estate as well.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/10/24/harris-trump-suburban-women-voters-liz-cheney/75810376007/
Some thoughts in no particular order:
1. People in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Charlotte (where I’m from!), and Atlanta didn’t vote. Look at the numbers. They just stayed home. Those folks come out and vote, and things might well be different.
2. The economy is NOT bad. It’s very good, actually. But the narrative of a bad economy took hold. But maybe (I don’t know) it is bad for blue collar workers and good for white collar workers (like me). But by every measure I’m aware of, the economy has been great for a year or so.
3. People won’t vote for a woman. I don’t know why (I mean, I do know why; I just don’t know why that’s how people are). It’s !&@!$ crazy and stupid and I wish it weren’t so. But we’re a sexist place and we have to deal with it.
4. Young men are inherently stupid. I know this - I use to be one.
5. People don’t understand economics. The tariffs Trump is promising will be passed along to consumers and, whammo presto, welcome back inflation.
6. People are not inherently good.
7. We are all screwed.
{The economy}..."is bad for blue collar workers and good for white collar workers." And there are more blue collar folks than white collar folks. On this issue, the Dems have lost their way.
2. The problem with this economy (at least for me) is nothing feels secure. Your stable job can get "disrupted" out of existence in a heartbeat (thanks to people like JD and Elon). So even if you have a steady gig, like I did (or CC did), you may get that tap on the shoulder. That was always possible but not like it is today. Even with the good economy, we're still seeing tons of layoffs.
4. My friend had two sons in high school who got a lot of woke stuff forced down their throats. And being kids, they hated it. He told me, "we're going to have a generation of reactionaries." While I doubt his voting age-son voted for Trump, he may be right. Kids (particularly boys) like to rebel. When I was a kid, "just say no" was a big thing. It wasn't a terrible message; drugs are bad, particularly crack, which was big at the time. But we treated it as a joke.
6. Strong disagree.
7. Strong agree (sadly).
Yes, people understand the economic situation the JB administration has put the country in, hence the vote last night. Remember it’s the economy stupid. People didn’t come out and vote bc VP Harris did not motivate them to do so, very simple. BTW, Walz was awful brought zero to her campaign.
I don’t know. In NC (where I am) a democrat won the Governor race, a democrat won the Attorney General race, a democrat won the Superintendent of Public Instruction race (where the Republican was a big Trump clone), and democrats look like they are about to win the Lt. Gov and Secretary of State race. And Democrats appear to have eliminated the Republican veto proof majority in the state house and senate.
But Trump will end up winning his race by a few hundred thousand votes. That seems like a hell of a lot of cognitive dissonance. Maybe it’s the Mark Robinson effect on all the state races - except republicans won all the congressional races they were supposed to win and all the state judgeship races (including a sixth seat (out of seven total) on the state Supreme Court).
How does all that make sense? How is that all in Harris? Or Biden? Or the economy (I mean, if the economy was such a big issue, why are democrats winning the big statewide races?).
I think it’s more complex than The Economy or The Border or Harris or Biden. But I’m not smart enough to figure it out. Maybe it’s just advertising? I don’t know.
I don't get how people could not vote for Mark Robinson for governor and then vote for Trump for President. They're both equally unacceptable! And President is the most powerful position in the world. A bad governor is bad, but nothing like a bad President.
Voting for President is the most personal vote you can make. It's the person you'll be seeing on your TV screens when there's an emergency. And maybe people felt more comfortable with Trump, a familiar TV presence, than Harris. Me, I want him off my TV. So, yeah, it makes no sense.
Let’s not let the media off the hook on number 1. Anybody who looks at economic data knows the US has been doing great for almost the entirety of the Biden administration. We also know that Foxnews never reports that because…it’s Fox. But outlets like CNN repeatedly (and I mean repeatedly) either pushed economic good news to lower headlines on their website or they paired good news with speculative “a recession is coming” hyperbole. To me this feels like an attempt at appearing “fair and balanced” when in reality it should’ve been a one sided story. So when 35% of the electorate gets news from Fox and thus is oblivious, and 34% get news from CNN which is saying “it’s good buuuttt…” that means 70% of the electorate is left with ill feelings about the economy when they truly were not warranted. CNN has inadvertently turned into diet Fox, just one calorie, by doing both sides reporting when not justified and cynically, it’s probably to try and get more viewers at the expensive of good journalism. I’ve been reading CNN.com for 23 years. After this episode, I’m done for a while and I most certainly won’t pay for it.
It's not the media's fault. Economic changes over the past decade have favored white collar workers over blue collar workers and the latter group has been mostly ignored and left behind. Of course social and cultural issues played a major role as well.
Trump inherited Obama’s economy and it was in the ditch by the time he left. Low job growth, high inflation, corporate price gouging grossly, criminally mismanaged pandemic. Biden was blamed for Trump’s economy. Trump won’t be able to hide from the damage he is about to do.
Bob, not quite true. Coming out of COVID, blue collar wages rose at a faster clip than those of other workers per the Federal Reserve. That did mean those workers felt the decline more acutely later on which might explain a negative feeling about the economy.
I mean I think all these points are correct, the question you don't answer is why. Young Men are traditionally misogynistic as well as Latin men. You can call Kamala a weak candidate but Trump is a historically awful Candidate and he just won. The fact of the matter whether we want to admit it or not is we live in a misogynistic and racially biased country and it has officially declared itself in this election. If Trump isn't a white male he does not win one state.
"Young Men are traditionally misogynistic as well as Latin men. " <- This is why you lost
He’s not lying. It’s the truth. It’s not the economy with Latino men, they just didn’t want a female president.
That is clearly why Claudia Sheinbaum was just sworn in as the first female President of Mexico.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/claudia-sheinbaum-sworn-in-as-mexicos-first-female-president
You do know not all Latinos have Mexican heritage right?
You were obviously unaware that Mexico just elected a woman President which makes your statement look outlandish. There was a female President in Spain, Argentina, costa rica etc.
I agree. It all goes back to Shirley Chisholm. Many of this country do not want a woman as President.
Yes, Trump had the racist vote locked up but Obama proved that racists are a minority in our country. (They're just not a small minority.) All racists are Republican but not all Republicans are racist.
Biden, as a junior US Senator, voted to pardon Robert E Lee and Jefferson Davis. Get a grip.
100 per cent.
Excuses are a sign of weakness. Hearing lots of those today.
They are not excuses. They are facts. America was more willing to elect a convicted criminal than a black woman.
You mean like all the excuses we had to hear from trumpettes for the last 4 years ( rigged, stolen, dog ate my ballot)?? I don't get the 2 sided hypocrisy that you all live with and, your new leader, was the biggest user of excuses of all....so are you saying he is weak??
You’re going to keep losing badly as long as you keep saying shit like this
He was wrong to do so.
Let me add an 8th reason. And, to me, the #1 reason. That a large percentage of this country - larger than anticipated -- are either racist xenophobic misogynistic homophobic transphobic Islamophobic antiSemitic people OR are okay with having a racist xenophobic misogynistic homophobic transphobic Islamophobic antiSemitic administration as long as their own status in life is a bit better.
I'm a big fan of yours, Chris. But I am disappointed in your take (and to be clear, this issue goes far beyond "the bro vote") not more blatantly acknowledging the dark truth of our country.
Ditto. No mention of our national blights: racism and misogyny and fear of the other.
Bingo, Matt! We just told the world who we are in case they didn't know. The greatest country in the world is also the most racist, misogynistic, homophobic.....
I agree 💯
So what do you have to say to all the blacks, Hispanics, naturalized citizens, women, gays, trans people, Muslims, Jews who voted for him?
Long before this election, there's never been any shortage of people who vote against their own best interests thinking that the forthcoming negative things will not hurt THEM. Of course, in this case, they're wrong.
or maybe there is no credible threat to all these groups and they don’t buy the bs anymore? How about that possibility?
Record low black and Hispanic unemployment during trumps presidency? How about that FACT
Only racists assume Hispanics are in favor of open borders simply because the people flooding in are also Hispanic
No wonder you guys lost to the most beatable Republican twice; you just don’t get it. Still dont get it and probably never will. Better reform your party for 2028 before a normal Republican with the same platform comes along and cleans your clock nationally and locally across the board
Chris, you are missing the forest for the trees. The right wing has had a disinformation campaign for decades. The Democrats have not and we haven't been competent at fighting the disinformation. The Democrats have been defined as horrible people to the point that Republicans just can't imagine voting for one. So many Republicans have held their noses and voted for the most (fill in the blank) person possible. Somehow we have to change that narration.
That’s laughable. The Democrats literally ran a whole campaign talking about how their opponents were garbage following a Nazi and now you’re complaining that the Dems have been demonized?
This is just not true. Biden made the garbage comment and made it like a week before the election. So to some extent you prove the original poster's point. At the same time, you are hitting on one of Chris's points that the "threat to democracy" stuff did not work. I don't think it was the "whole campaign" but it became more of the campaign as time went on.
This country doesn't care about democracy. It ranked 4th out of 5 concerns. We want white supremacy.
Trump spewing insults and namecalling: "Marxist Kamala", "Communist Harris"
et cetera. You forgot about that.
Or, hmmm, "forgot" . . . ?
It's the economy stupid shows one thing . . . people are stupid. We have the best economy in the world, inflation is down, unemployment is at record lows and prices have dropped.
Trump's voters blamed Biden/Harris for the price of food, gasoline, mortgage rates and anything else they pay for. Guess what? No president controls those and Trump's promises to reduce those prices are lies. Everything he said he wouldn't do, like cut Social Security and Medicare or impose a national abortion ban . . . HE WILL DO!
Plus, when he starts deporting people he thinks are illegals that will probably include American citizens (yes it would be illegal but the SC says he's immune) and I think any Latino or Hispanic who voted for him may regret it.
And don't even get me started on his tariffs. People are going to be shocked when they're paying more for items because of his tariffs and those prices will make current ones seem quaint. But, somehow, they'll blame Pres. Biden.
I fear for our country.
Two words:
Woman. Black.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/10/24/harris-trump-suburban-women-voters-liz-cheney/75810376007/
I don't think any Dem could have gotten away from Biden, even if there had been a real primary. And so I don't think there was a perfect candidate. Whitmer, Shapiro, Buttigieg, whoever, they all under the shadow of the party and all had their own flaws. Harris wasn't a great candidate, but I'm not convinced that ended up mattering.
Let's hope blue Aces Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsom, Shapiro enter the race 2028.
Anyone of them would knock Joker D Vance to a fold
I am not ready to throw Harris under the bus, under the fantasy that Biden or any of his potential Democratic successors -- Gretchan Whitmer, Gavin Newsom -- could have done better. This is just chatter. I do agree that voters who have no understanding of economics, acted as if they were in a Skinner box in regard to inflation -- it stung so they blamed Biden. And the gender gap obviously went both ways. Men did not care much about the rights of women nor their empowerment. And Trump voters don't care about the rule of law, nor engage in rational policy analysis on immigration. They dont take seriously the reckless, crazy things Trump said. One can only hope that Trump doesn't either.
I’d disagree. Voters have an excellent understanding of economics. They know that it’s not about the stock market, statistics, or lines on a chart. Voters know the economy boils down to two things: job security, and paying the bills and putting food on the table. In both factors the Biden economy is a failure.
But unemployment is incredibly low so how is the Biden economy a failure on job security? I really think it comes down to inflation. My grocery bill is much bigger than it was 4 years ago. Houses are more expenses, mortgage rates and care loan rates are up. These are things that impact people every day. Those are the things they hang on to. The stock market, at least to them, has less of a day to day impact. Also, for whatever reason people trust Republicans more on the economy than Democrats.
I don't feel secure in my job. I'm worried AI will replace me, or that the company will cut expenses. It has nothing to do with unemployment being low. I'm old enough that my work options are limited.
It's just the "disruptive" moment we're living in.
I do think it is hard for older workers out there. I have seen many friends in the 55-65 range lose jobs because they have high salaries and then being unable to find new jobs despite the good economy so I hear you. Maybe that problem is not as widespread as my personal experience reflect, but I am surprised I don't read/hear more about it. With all that admitted, I don't see how Trump is likely to improve that situation. Which isn't to say it was dumb for you to vote for him. I get a vote to change or disrupt the status quo. Just wondering if you think Trump offered a solution that would help you.
Timothy - I didn't vote for Trump, and never would, for all the reasons that I'm sure I don't have to spell out. I'm just trying to get my head around this.
"I have seen many friends in the 55-65 range lose jobs because they have high salaries and then being unable to find new jobs despite the good economy so I hear you"
Yes. Which Is Gen X (my generation, as well as my age range). Gen X is also the one cohort that went the most for Trump.
Why do Gen X-ers think Trump will help? I am honestly not sure. VCs like Vance and tech moguls like Musk are a huge part of the problem.
Again, we've had three straight change elections, plus a bunch of tumultuous midterms. And I think that shows that there is a free-floating anxiety out there, and a lack of security, that is almost unprecedented, because of this constant technological change that wipes out entire industries overnight. It may not be fixable, but Trump is good at making false promises and sometimes false hope is better than no hope.
There was a story that Harris de-emphasized a populist economic message because she had a brother-in-law that worked for Uber. If true, that's just awful.
I'm a Gen X as well. Sorry for assuming you voted for Trump. It's interesting that Gen X went so much for Trump because in my friend group that was not true even among the historically conservative members of the group. Anyway, I appreciate the thoughtful response.
Exactly.
You made his point because everything you said isn't economics. It's choices. Many people complaining about paying the bills and putting food on the table find a way to travel and do whatever they want. Go to the airport during a holiday and witness the masses flying all over the country. People have money. Make no mistake about that.
Huh??? Where did I say they didn't. The fact people are saving less or going into debt so that they can travel, buy new cars, etc. doesn't really undermine that they feel as if the economy is worse since they are doing the same things but now have less savings or more debt.
Once Biden stepped down, even if he didn't endorse Harris, it would have been very hard for any of those people to run against Harris, who would be the odds on favorite (and was Black and a woman, in a party sensitive about such things.) A primary would have been ideal but it would have probably set her campaign back even further.
Given the size of the Democrats loss, not just Harris, I think there’s a dislike of Democratic policies nationwide in counties that are away from the population centers.
While I think that being a woman when Trump’s key supporters were men didn’t help, it’s not the only story. This really spells the end of Romney Republicans and left wing Democrats. I’m not sure any Democratic candidate would have won.
But I do think the winner here is the states. Clearly many blue states remain. Democrats were elected there too. And we will now see tension between red states, the Federal Government and blue states which continue to protect individual rights. This country really is divided.
For example, in some blue states, children can’t go to school unless they have been vaccinated. If Trump’s federal government now insists that vaccinations aren’t required, we are likely to see a back and forth between the Trump Administration and State AGs. Ultimately, though it may take a few years, it puts us on a Brexit like path IMO.
We shall see.
I think your point about the States is an important one. Even a mid October 2024 poll of CFOs found they were more concerned about what States are doing than what a potentially divided Washington might do (Pricewaterhouse Coopers poll)
The other aspect to remember is that the Federal Government and US Supreme Court can’t override the states on everything. The states have powers the Federal Government does not. Such as enforcing civil and criminal convictions in their state. So it’s inevitable there will be a conflict between the two at some point which IMO will cause a breach.
When Weird Bobby becomes head of HHS, your [nightmare]prediction would turn into cold reality in a jiffy.
This makes sense.
She lost because she was and is an awful candidate. I’ve said for months, a San Francisco liberal who changes her lifelong political views once given the nomination doesn’t and won’t ever play in the Midwest swing states! She never really had a chance. Her statement “my values haven’t changed” was/is simply ridiculous! Her hiding strategy was awful only to be outdone by her “interviews” once she couldn’t be hid any longer. The deal was sealed was she took Walz as her VP. He brought nothing. President Trump out worked and out maneuvered her in SO many ways. All the money in the world and celebrities on stage can’t fix an awful candidate. This election was really very EZ to predict, and I did for months.
Truth be told VP Harris was the very last person the Dems wanted on the ticket. JB and the Dems did this to themselves by not disclosing his mental and physical condition. The whole process since June was a slow moving train wreck from the Dems…..
I just don’t think this is the right take. As I will demonstrate. Are there any Democratic candidates you would have voted for? But now the pressure is on the Republicans to actually lower prices. Tariffs will do the opposite. But we’ll discover that shortly.
Gotta agree with Dutch here.
I thought she was a pretty good candidate, but like most losing candidates, from Gore to Romney to HRC, she came off as too scripted and programmed, especially against such a unhinged candidate. She didn't trust her instincts enough, like A players like Obama and B Clinton (and I hate to say it, but Trump) did.
Don't forget: there's another "JB" on the Blue Team...
Gov. Pritzker would do great in the 2028 Presidential race.
One of the few candidates who would do worse with free airtime
I blame the DNC also. Biden shouldn't have run for a second term and that would have allowed the Democrats to have a primary. Where would we be this morning if they had done the right thing?
Spot on!!
Trump voters obviously don't care about Ukraine, and hardly know where it is. As in the 1930s, American isolationism is popular again -- they don't care about the security of Europe, and are giving Putin a green light to expand his empire into Eastern Europe. They don't care about Taiwan and are giving China a green light to expand in Asia.
The world is about to enter a very dangerous time. America is not going to be immune from the effects of European and Asian instability.
It is not dangerous now?
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
Really well done Chris!! I think that you nailed it.
I would add a #8 - corporate media sane washing and normalizing Trump.