7 warning signs for Joe Biden in the new New York Times poll

Ruh roh.

(President Joe Biden)

The big news out of today’s New York Times poll is that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied at 43% in the 2024 race for the White House.

Which is remarkably consistent with where the race has been for a while now.

The Times writeup of the poll suggests that Biden has made progress from the doldrums of last summer — mainly by consolidating support among Democrats. (Headline: “Biden Shores Up Democratic Support, but Faces Tight Race Against Trump.”)

I went through the poll itself — you can too here — and came away more pessimistic about Biden’s strengths in the race than that headline suggests.

A few (ok, seven) numbers worth considering:

• Half of all Democrats do not want Biden to run again. HALF! That includes large majorities of young voters (more on that below)

• Of the group of Democrats who want someone other than Biden, almost 4 in 10 named his advanced age as the main reason for their feelings.

• Just 1 in 5 Democrats say they are “enthusiastic” about Biden as the nominee. By comparison, 26% said they would be “enthusiastic” if VP Kamala Harris was the party’s pick.

• Against two LONG shot Democratic primary opponents, Biden wins just 64% of the vote.

• Just 39% of voters approve of the job Biden is doing. That’s no anomaly as the latest Gallup monthly survey from July has Biden at 40% job approval.

• In his head to head matchup with Trump, Biden is winning voters aged 18-29 by 10 points. He won that group by 24 points in 2020.

• In a head to head matchup with Trump, Biden is winning Hispanic voters by 3 points. He won that group by 33 points in 2020.

These are all BAD numbers. Like, really bad.

Now, a few caveats:

1. We are 15 months from the election and stuff will change

2. Biden is very likely to face a rematch against Trump

It’s the second point that most people fixate on when talking about the Biden’s political standing. Because, as bad as Biden’s numbers are right now, Trump’s are arguably worse.

One paragraph from the Times report on the poll stands out on that point:

Mr. Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Mr. Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 percent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, a segment with which Mr. Biden had a narrow lead.

There’s no question that Biden’s best friend in this potential race is Trump. I have written many times that I believe Trump is the weakest general election candidate Republicans can nominate — and there’s plenty of data in the Times poll to back that up.

To wit:

• 52% of women have a VERY unfavorable view of Donald Trump

• 49% of independents have a VERY unfavorable view of Trump

• Trump is losing suburban voters (by 5), women (by 12) and independents (by 5) to Biden in a head to head matchup.

And then, of course, there are all of the other things not in the poll — like Trump’s two indictments (with the possibility of a third on the way) and his cash flow problems. (If you have not read this story on how much Trump is spending on legal fees, you need to do it RIGHT now.)

Which is all to say that Trump is damaged — badly damaged — when it comes to winning over persuadable voters he needs to beat Biden.

But, that fact doesn’t change this one: Joe Biden is entering the 2024 election season in his own decidedly weak position.

His party is lukewarm — at best — to the idea of renominating him. That goes double for young people who were one of the pillars of his victory in 2020. The general electorate is unimpressed by the job he is doing. He is showing significant signs of slippage with the critical Hispanic vote.

Those are the facts. None of them mean that Biden will lose to Trump. None of them alter Trump’s fundamental weaknesses with a general election electorate.

But, they do suggest that the current tightness of the presidential election is likely to continue all the way through next year. And that Biden absolutely can lose.