Am I excited about another Biden term? No, but if he wants to run, what are the Democrats supposed to do? You don't want to primary an incumbent president and weaken his chances at getting re-elected. I like Newsom and Buttigieg, and I'd be happy with either of them if Biden dropped out for whatever reason. But this country is so polarized right now, as evidenced by the GOP's continued loyalty to Trump, that I think the election is going to be a razor-thin margin decided by a few swing states no matter who the candidates are.
I’ve described this before as “Biden is the worst possible Democrat, except for all the alternatives.” The Democratic primary process _might_ eventually come into better alignment with the voting electorate as the Zoomers start to vote in greater numbers, and perhaps for 2028 that’ll be closer to full swing. For 2024? There isn’t an alternative that won’t be readily caricatured by the GQP to say “see, that person is just as crazy as we are!” I don’t think we’ll see our next president who isn’t a white guy until after the Boomers are mostly/all dead. That said, that’s coming sooner than we might think. By 2040 they’ll largely be gone.
I’m so looking forward to the more left-leaning “youngsters” driving the election process and relegating the Republicans to permanent minority status nationally, and hopefully statewide everywhere too. (Full disclosure - I’m an “old white guy” 🤦♂️😄 )
The way not to go into the screaming muppet run over this poll is basically this: Trump’s 43% likely represents his ceiling in a two way race, and Biden’s doesn’t.
Yeah. Sometimes I feel like the media should probably be a little more aggressive in reporting the actual words that come out of Trump’s mouth, though. Jon Oliver once broadcast a neutral tone reading of one of Trump’s speeches and described it as “a drunk driver crashing a pickup truck full of alphabet soup.” Is he wrong?
The issue isn't Biden's or Trump's nationwide support -- it is the support in the critical states: WI, MI, PA, GA, AZ, and NV (maybe NC). Massive wins in NY or NJ or CA are irrelevant.
There is that. But if it comes down to Biden v Trump, there’s a lot of folks in those states who I expect would rather stick with Biden then go back to the clown show of TFG once it’s clear these are their operative choices.
All of this is exactly why I am so fearful with respect to the seemingly inevitable Biden-Trump rematch. I honestly believe that Trump could and may very well win.
Here's the one wildcard that this poll doesn't seem to address, though: The still-simmering anger on the part of many women over the Dobbs decision. I am HOPING that in a Presidential election, where the ability to select Supreme Court Justices is at issue, many women/independent voters will remember who put Justices Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh on the bench for life.
Biden and the Democrats have to do a better job communicating their MANY successes. What I took away from the Times article was how UNinformed people are. One person complained Biden's tax policies favor the rich over the middle class. Another claimed he hadn't done enough on student loans. I was not enthusiastic for Biden four years ago. I am now.
That is a perennial problem for both political parties. Voters just don't follow this stuff that closely and often make judgments based on incomplete (or straight wrong) information.
One point I keep reminding folks of is that the political landscape today will certainly not be the landscape a year from now. There are trials to come (and potential bad behavior post-verdicts), two very old men who could have health crises, and heaven knows what else (COVID was baked into all the 2019 surveys, right?!) Take all of these polls with a healthy skepticism that they reflect anything close to the world of 2024.
The age thing has me puzzled. We've lost our way when the candidate who's not only a seasoned veteran of statesmanship, but a proven leader, progressive thinker and implementer of real change (what his administration has accomplished in a little over two years in light of so much adversity and perverse criminal dysfunction is alone something worthy of accolades and admiration) is so knee jerk marginalized and stigmatized, especially in light of his very close in age and far from a portrait of physical, emotional or spiritual (or constabulary) health chief opponent. Instead, we've all been read into a new paradigm wherein folks, young and old, near and far, are evidently too willing to spend the minimal amount of time and energy to inform themselves and too willing to believe or disbelieve most anything. That's the challenge. Dems MUST be more committed and vociferous about ALL of this.
Thanks for this. Interesting poll and commentary. A few thoughts, though:
If you look back at Obama's approval ratings, the late summer of his third year in office was the nadir of his presidency from a polling perspective- he was at 40% for most of August 2011.
The poll asked Democrats generically if the Democratic Party should nominate someone else, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for Biden - 71% of the respondents said they would be either enthusiastic or satisfied if he ran again.
61% of all voters in the poll believe that abortion should be always legal or mostly legal. It's hard to imagine many of those voters voting for a Republican.
Poll design does not lend itself to the nuances we're trying to pull out here. For instance, I'm going to vote for Biden. There's just no question about that. I'll probably contribute to his campaign. But if a pollster called me and I was actually honest in my responses (which I might not be, because I know how the polls are interpreted by the media), I'd tell them that (a) I wasn't enthusiastic about Biden, (b) I wished there was an alternative, and (c) I'd be dissatisfied (maybe even upset) with Kamala Harris if she were the nominee. None of that means I'm not voting for Biden/Harris in the general.
It's all true -- a poll can only capture a snapshot of sentiment, not the full thinking any one person has about a politician or the broader race. These are broad brush strokes.
The abortion issue "saved" the mid terms for democrats but many states including the swing state of Michigan took care of that issue on a state level. Michigan will be a red state in 2024 if Biden is the DNC nominee.
Putting aside the fact that the GOP is pushing hard to (and almost certainly would if they capture the presidency and both houses of Congress) pass federal law banning abortions nationwide, who is out there that would prevent that outcome, if not Biden?
i have not had a chance to get into the polls (that's what i'm paying your for, right!? sorry, bad attempt at humor :)). I think all of this is depressingly fascinating. Is there state by state polling on this? i am becoming more concerned about the electoral college. Sure, Biden can win like hell in CA but does it matter if he loses PA and AZ? does it really matter what his numbers are head to head or does it matter what his numbers are head to head in particular states?
Glancing quickly through some of the comments below, i agree with what i think Dan is getting at... at the end of the day, I am voting for Trigger ,the guy at the bar's dog, if that is the Dem nominee. I am no better than the MAGA Trump supporters. At this point, i don't care if Biden's goofy son used him on calls to drum up business (Ivanka and Jared... anyone? anyone?) I really think i would vote for Biden even if HE shot someone on 5th Ave. I am so glad none of you know who i am because i never thought i'd be "that" voter....but here I am.
State by state polling is pretty sparse at this point and I would be a bit skeptical of it this far out from an election. That said, there's every reason to believe that the 2024 race is going to be VERY close -- and decided by 4 or so states.
This may well be a nail biter. However, IMO, this is a sorry state of affairs as a country. I understand people being wary of Biden but to have Trump be that close??? I am very afraid.
If you look around the world, it shouldn't be a surprise that Trump is close. Look at Israel for example: A whole bunch of people thought it didn't make much difference and now are looking at a right wing quasi-dictatorship -- they've lost their democracy and there is nothing they can do to get it back.
How people "feel" today about wanting Biden to run will most likely NOT correlate to whether people will vote for him if he is the nominee, especially if he is running against Trump. As you point out, Trump has a ceiling, and Biden should benefit significantly from the ABT (Anybody But Trump) voters when it comes to election day, as was shown in 2020.
This election will be closer than 2020 and Orange Jesus will win if Biden is the DNC nominee. It's a shame that Bernie is not running he is the obvious candidate but since he is out Maryanne is our best bet. I know I will vote 3rd party (Cornell West) if Biden is the nominee and I will convince as many leftists as possible to do the same. The DNC does not own my vote and if they refuse debates supress democracy they have lost my vote forever.
I may not be enthusiastic about Biden, but I’m very enthusiastic that Trump not be president again.
Voters like you are what Biden is depending on, Kevin.
I’m ridin’ with Biden 😎
Am I excited about another Biden term? No, but if he wants to run, what are the Democrats supposed to do? You don't want to primary an incumbent president and weaken his chances at getting re-elected. I like Newsom and Buttigieg, and I'd be happy with either of them if Biden dropped out for whatever reason. But this country is so polarized right now, as evidenced by the GOP's continued loyalty to Trump, that I think the election is going to be a razor-thin margin decided by a few swing states no matter who the candidates are.
Good point, Dan. Beating an incumbent in a presidential primary is damn near impossible.
I agree as it's also very very difficult to beat an incumbent in a general election unless that incumbent us as terrible as Donald Trump.
I’ve described this before as “Biden is the worst possible Democrat, except for all the alternatives.” The Democratic primary process _might_ eventually come into better alignment with the voting electorate as the Zoomers start to vote in greater numbers, and perhaps for 2028 that’ll be closer to full swing. For 2024? There isn’t an alternative that won’t be readily caricatured by the GQP to say “see, that person is just as crazy as we are!” I don’t think we’ll see our next president who isn’t a white guy until after the Boomers are mostly/all dead. That said, that’s coming sooner than we might think. By 2040 they’ll largely be gone.
I’m so looking forward to the more left-leaning “youngsters” driving the election process and relegating the Republicans to permanent minority status nationally, and hopefully statewide everywhere too. (Full disclosure - I’m an “old white guy” 🤦♂️😄 )
I'm with you and I am an "old" white woman!
The way not to go into the screaming muppet run over this poll is basically this: Trump’s 43% likely represents his ceiling in a two way race, and Biden’s doesn’t.
Eric, that's *probably* right. I still think Biden has a slight edge in a general election against Trump -- but it is slight.
That's assuming the status quo. If Biden has a public "McConnell moment" all hell will break loose.
TRUE
Yeah. Sometimes I feel like the media should probably be a little more aggressive in reporting the actual words that come out of Trump’s mouth, though. Jon Oliver once broadcast a neutral tone reading of one of Trump’s speeches and described it as “a drunk driver crashing a pickup truck full of alphabet soup.” Is he wrong?
Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZAPwfrtAFY&t=185
The issue isn't Biden's or Trump's nationwide support -- it is the support in the critical states: WI, MI, PA, GA, AZ, and NV (maybe NC). Massive wins in NY or NJ or CA are irrelevant.
There is that. But if it comes down to Biden v Trump, there’s a lot of folks in those states who I expect would rather stick with Biden then go back to the clown show of TFG once it’s clear these are their operative choices.
I hope that's true -- the election will likely come down to how many of those folks there are in these key states.
All of this is exactly why I am so fearful with respect to the seemingly inevitable Biden-Trump rematch. I honestly believe that Trump could and may very well win.
Here's the one wildcard that this poll doesn't seem to address, though: The still-simmering anger on the part of many women over the Dobbs decision. I am HOPING that in a Presidential election, where the ability to select Supreme Court Justices is at issue, many women/independent voters will remember who put Justices Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh on the bench for life.
That COULD be an x factor, for sure. In the Times poll, Biden was beating Trump by 12 among women just FYI...
Biden and the Democrats have to do a better job communicating their MANY successes. What I took away from the Times article was how UNinformed people are. One person complained Biden's tax policies favor the rich over the middle class. Another claimed he hadn't done enough on student loans. I was not enthusiastic for Biden four years ago. I am now.
That is a perennial problem for both political parties. Voters just don't follow this stuff that closely and often make judgments based on incomplete (or straight wrong) information.
One point I keep reminding folks of is that the political landscape today will certainly not be the landscape a year from now. There are trials to come (and potential bad behavior post-verdicts), two very old men who could have health crises, and heaven knows what else (COVID was baked into all the 2019 surveys, right?!) Take all of these polls with a healthy skepticism that they reflect anything close to the world of 2024.
That's SO true. We are one "McConnell" moment away from the race looking radically different.
Exactly. And both of them are at an age where that happening would not be strange.
The age thing has me puzzled. We've lost our way when the candidate who's not only a seasoned veteran of statesmanship, but a proven leader, progressive thinker and implementer of real change (what his administration has accomplished in a little over two years in light of so much adversity and perverse criminal dysfunction is alone something worthy of accolades and admiration) is so knee jerk marginalized and stigmatized, especially in light of his very close in age and far from a portrait of physical, emotional or spiritual (or constabulary) health chief opponent. Instead, we've all been read into a new paradigm wherein folks, young and old, near and far, are evidently too willing to spend the minimal amount of time and energy to inform themselves and too willing to believe or disbelieve most anything. That's the challenge. Dems MUST be more committed and vociferous about ALL of this.
Thanks for this. Interesting poll and commentary. A few thoughts, though:
If you look back at Obama's approval ratings, the late summer of his third year in office was the nadir of his presidency from a polling perspective- he was at 40% for most of August 2011.
The poll asked Democrats generically if the Democratic Party should nominate someone else, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for Biden - 71% of the respondents said they would be either enthusiastic or satisfied if he ran again.
61% of all voters in the poll believe that abortion should be always legal or mostly legal. It's hard to imagine many of those voters voting for a Republican.
Poll design does not lend itself to the nuances we're trying to pull out here. For instance, I'm going to vote for Biden. There's just no question about that. I'll probably contribute to his campaign. But if a pollster called me and I was actually honest in my responses (which I might not be, because I know how the polls are interpreted by the media), I'd tell them that (a) I wasn't enthusiastic about Biden, (b) I wished there was an alternative, and (c) I'd be dissatisfied (maybe even upset) with Kamala Harris if she were the nominee. None of that means I'm not voting for Biden/Harris in the general.
It's all true -- a poll can only capture a snapshot of sentiment, not the full thinking any one person has about a politician or the broader race. These are broad brush strokes.
The abortion issue "saved" the mid terms for democrats but many states including the swing state of Michigan took care of that issue on a state level. Michigan will be a red state in 2024 if Biden is the DNC nominee.
Putting aside the fact that the GOP is pushing hard to (and almost certainly would if they capture the presidency and both houses of Congress) pass federal law banning abortions nationwide, who is out there that would prevent that outcome, if not Biden?
Chris,
i have not had a chance to get into the polls (that's what i'm paying your for, right!? sorry, bad attempt at humor :)). I think all of this is depressingly fascinating. Is there state by state polling on this? i am becoming more concerned about the electoral college. Sure, Biden can win like hell in CA but does it matter if he loses PA and AZ? does it really matter what his numbers are head to head or does it matter what his numbers are head to head in particular states?
Glancing quickly through some of the comments below, i agree with what i think Dan is getting at... at the end of the day, I am voting for Trigger ,the guy at the bar's dog, if that is the Dem nominee. I am no better than the MAGA Trump supporters. At this point, i don't care if Biden's goofy son used him on calls to drum up business (Ivanka and Jared... anyone? anyone?) I really think i would vote for Biden even if HE shot someone on 5th Ave. I am so glad none of you know who i am because i never thought i'd be "that" voter....but here I am.
State by state polling is pretty sparse at this point and I would be a bit skeptical of it this far out from an election. That said, there's every reason to believe that the 2024 race is going to be VERY close -- and decided by 4 or so states.
This may well be a nail biter. However, IMO, this is a sorry state of affairs as a country. I understand people being wary of Biden but to have Trump be that close??? I am very afraid.
If you look around the world, it shouldn't be a surprise that Trump is close. Look at Israel for example: A whole bunch of people thought it didn't make much difference and now are looking at a right wing quasi-dictatorship -- they've lost their democracy and there is nothing they can do to get it back.
How people "feel" today about wanting Biden to run will most likely NOT correlate to whether people will vote for him if he is the nominee, especially if he is running against Trump. As you point out, Trump has a ceiling, and Biden should benefit significantly from the ABT (Anybody But Trump) voters when it comes to election day, as was shown in 2020.
That has to be Democrats' hope. My only point is that Biden isn't exactly powering into the general election.
Anomalous times.
Well, i said yesterday that a Trump presidency would be terrifying. Now i am really terrified.
And I am Canadian.
This election will be closer than 2020 and Orange Jesus will win if Biden is the DNC nominee. It's a shame that Bernie is not running he is the obvious candidate but since he is out Maryanne is our best bet. I know I will vote 3rd party (Cornell West) if Biden is the nominee and I will convince as many leftists as possible to do the same. The DNC does not own my vote and if they refuse debates supress democracy they have lost my vote forever.
"I know I will vote 3rd party (Cornell West) if Biden is the nominee and I will convince as many leftists as possible to do the same."
In other words, you want Trump to be the next president.
DNC?
And next in line is Kamala. Total dumpster fire 🔥
I think the key thing missing here is that it’s really not the national polls that mean anything.
It’s the state polls in swing states like PA, WI, GA, AZ, VA, NC that will decide the election outcome.
Bingo!! (My understanding is that the states are WI, MI, PA, GA, AZ, and NV -- maybe, but not likely, NC).