8 big thoughts on the 2024 race

So, where are we now?

The Republican convention starts in 48 hours.

Donald Trump will make his vice presidential pick known in that same time frame.

Joe Biden continues to fight for his political life amid a growing(?) revolt within his own party.

So, I thought now might be a good time to just take a step back and look at where we are in the race.

And, for me, the best way to do that is to list out 8 things I think I know to be true — as of right now — about Donald Trump, Joe Biden, their respective parties and the state of the race.

Without further ado, let’s get to it. These are in no particular order other than how they occurred to me.

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1. Joe Biden is likely to hang on as the Democratic nominee

In order to get Biden out, one of two things would have to be true: a) Biden himself recognizes he can’t do the job or can’t win or b) a unified and large bloc of key Democrats — party leaders, elder statesmen and women etc. — would have to come out in force and say “You cannot represent the party.”

Neither of those things is happening. Biden seems utterly set on running and, to the extent there is resistance from influential people in the party, it’s still behind the scenes and without names attached.

Biden isn’t going to leave the race because some random “Democratic Senator speaking on the condition of anonymity” told Politico he should.

And, on Saturday, he got a big vote of confidence — in the New York Times, no less — from progressive icon Bernie Sanders.

Wrote Sanders:

Enough! Mr. Biden may not be the ideal candidate, but he will be the candidate and should be the candidate....It’s time for Democrats to stop the bickering and nit-picking.

That isn’t determinative, of course. There will be other Members of Congress who come out in the next 48-72 hours and say Biden should leave the race. But unless a WHOLE lot of prominent Democrats do it — and do it soon — Biden probably hangs on.

2. Biden is significantly weakened

Even before the June 27 debate, a majority of the country repeatedly told pollsters that they believed Biden was too old to be president. Biden’s decidedly poor performance in that debate, which drew an audience of 51 million, affirmed for lots and lots of those folks that the president shouldn’t even be in the White House now — much less be given four more years in office.

To me, the most jarring finding post-debate was that 85% of voters in a Washington-Post- ABC News poll said that Biden was too old to be president. (Six in ten voters said the same about Donald Trump.)

That same poll found that two-thirds(!) of voters thought Biden should drop from the race. That number includes a MAJORITY of Democrats saying Biden should step aside.

Combine that with the private poll numbers leaking out of swing states and swing districts and I think it’s clear that Biden — and Democrats — have taken a hit from the debate and its aftermath.

That doesn’t mean a) he (and they) can’t bounce back and b) he (or they) are definitely going to lose.

But, it DOES mean that Biden is damaged. And that, at the moment, that damage is seeping toward downballot Democrats too.

3. One rally isn’t going to fix things for Biden

On X Friday night, Biden White House staffers were throwing virtual high fives because the president had done so well at his rally in Michigan.

Which, apparently, he did! Here’s the Detroit Free Press on the rally:

Greeted with huge applause by a crowd of thousands at Renaissance High School who chanted "Don't You Quit" and "We've Got Your Back" and interrupted him several times to show their support, Biden appeared not only ready to take the fight to Trump, who is running against Biden for reelection, but to feed off the crowd's ceaseless energy, his voice remaining strong and his demeanor feisty during a 35-minute address.

That’s a positive sign for Democrats! But, the conclusion I saw some pro-Biden voices drawing — he’s put the debate behind him and proven he is ready and able to be president!!! — is WAY too optimistic.

Again: 51 million people watched the debate. And millions more saw at least some of the post-debate coverage, which focused on how bad Biden was and whether he was (and is) too old to do the job of president.

No one rally — no matter how energetic Biden is — is going to fix that problem. (I’d also note that Biden speaking off a teleprompter to an adoring crowd is NOT the same thing as doing a press conference or participating in a debate.)

There’s no quick fix to the Biden age problem. (I would argue there is no slow fix either.) If he is going to change minds on whether he is too old to be president for four more years, it’s going to take a series of rallies, speeches, interviews and debates in which Biden performs exactly as he did in Michigan on Friday night.

That’s a very high bar — especially for a candidate we know, thanks to great reporting from the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post — is having more bad days in recent months than he’s ever had before.

4. Biden should take a new cognitive test

Per #3, I think there’s no single speech or debate or interview that is going to convince large numbers of undecided and swing voters that Biden is, in fact, with it and able to do the job — now and into the future.

Know what might? If Biden agreed to a full cognitive exam by an independent doctor with the results to be released publicly no matter what they show.

I’m not the only who thinks this!

“I don’t think that it would hurt,” Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told CNN about the prospect of Biden submitting to cognitive testing post-debate. And California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff said on “Meet the Press” that “I’d be happy if both the president and Donald Trump took cognitive tests.”

Trump, for his part, seems game:

Biden, however, is not just resistant to a test but dismissive. Asked directly about taking a cognitive test post-debate by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, Biden responded: “I get a full neurological test every day.”

By which, he means that the job of being president amounts to a cognitive test. It, of course, does not.

Biden has not undergone a cognitive test this year. While he had neurological tests during his annual physical earlier this year, the White House confirmed a cognitive test was not recommended or given.

“He passes a cognitive test every day,” White House press secretary Karine Jean Pierre said at the time. Sound familiar?

Why wouldn’t Biden do something that might help him make the case to the public that he’s, well, all there?

The only thing I can think of is that either he or his inner circle is worried what the testing might say. Because if it comes back that Biden does have some sort of cognitive condition or decline, he would almost certainly have to end his candidacy.

5. Trump is the favorite

Before June 27, I would have given Trump a 51% chance of winning. Now I think it’s in the upper 50s or even the low 60s. (Some electoral models have Trump with a better than 70% chance of winning right now.)

The problem for Biden is that he has a VERY narrow path to 270 electoral votes. Out of the 6 swing states — sorry I don’t count North Carolina as a swing state — Biden is clearly behind in three: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The other three — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are toss ups or maybe a point or two in Trump’s favor.

If Biden sweeps all three of those latter states, here’s the map:

So, he needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd district and three out of the four electoral votes out of Maine. And he can’t lose any other states that he won in 2020. That gets him to 270 — the bare minimum he needs to win!

If Trump wins ANY of those midwestern/Rust Belt swing states, the race is almost certainly over — unless Biden can stage a comeback in, say, Nevada or Arizona. (I am very skeptical Georgia will be super competitive.)

Trump simply has FAR more paths to 270 than does Biden. Read Democratic consultant Doug Sosnik on that.

6. Trump is running a far better campaign than in 2016 or 2020

Trump’s campaign in 2016 was a disaster. He had third and fourth rate operatives — people who couldn’t get work for the top contenders or had been shunted to the side for some past transgression — working for him. It showed. He won in spite of the campaign he ran, not because of it.

In 2020, Trump’s campaign was marginally better. Marginally.

But in this election Trump has real people at the top of the campaign — Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles — and they have run a drama and chaos free effort to date.

It’s always hard for me to gauge how much Trump listens to anyone, but I would argue that he and the campaign have done a number of smart things in recent weeks:

• Avoided making ANY news in the wake of the June 27 debate, ensuring that the entire focus of the political and media world was on Biden and his struggles

• Finessed the GOP platform to carry far more moderate language on abortion than in years past. Ditto same-sex marriage.

• Proposed the elimination of a tax on tips — an issue that absolutely will help him in Nevada.

All of those things are what a, well, normal, candidate might do. “Normal” has never been Trump’s strong suit. Or discipline. And yet….

7. Trump’s VP pick will reflect his confidence (or lack thereof)

If I am Trump, I look at the race and think: “If I don’t screw anything major up, I am going to win.”

Which, to me, would mean you go for the safest possible vice presidential pick: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Burgum might piss off some moderates and women because of the near-total abortion ban he signed in North Dakota, sure. But, he’s totally inoffensive as a person. He’s a guy who has been successful in business and government. He’s a governance pick, a person who can help Trump execute on a plan to remake the federal bureaucracy.

If Trump is still focused on the electoral map — and more worried than he lets on about winning — expect him to go with Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, a son of the Midwest, or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

Vance might help Trump, at the margins, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Rubio, who is Cuban, could help win over Hispanic voters in places like Nevada and Arizona.

8. Trump is still Trump

The last two weeks have been among the best of Trump’s entire campaign. He’s sat on the sidelines while the incumbent president has had to put down a revolt within his own party. Polling looks rosy for Trump — especially in swing states. He has managed to keep a lid on his VP pick, ensuring a big audience for Monday night at the convention when we expect the former president to unveil his choice.

But, Trump is still Trump. Which means that he still is a convicted felon (34 times over). He is still a serial liar. He is still the guy who tried to use the powers of the presidency to overturn a free and fair election. He is still the guy found liable for the sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll.

In short, he’s still a target-rich environment. If Biden can turn the focus of the race back to Trump — no easy task — there is a whole lot there that voters don’t like.

To my mind, if Republicans had nominated anyone other than Trump — up to and including the charisma-challenged Ron DeSantis — they would be 5-8 points ahead of Biden after that disastrous debate performance.

Trump just has massive negatives built in — and slew of people who will, literally, vote for the potentially-addled 81 year old guy over him.