87 Comments

Biden should take a cognitive test if and when trump submits to a psychological exam to rule out antisocial personality disorder and a sex offender evaluation. If you want to make it fair, have both take all three. If the tests show trump is a sociopath and attracted to rape of adults and children, Republicans will laugh it off and vote for him anyway. Why must we insist our candidate is the one who must reassure voters regarding his fitness?

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100% Kelly. At this point the reason democrats are talking about this is because there’s real fear that trump was going to win *before* the debate, and this is just a way not to own the fact that our country is majority racist, majority sexist, majority fake Christian, ready to sell out LGBTQ, and willing to look the other way at stuff that doesn’t affect them. Running consistently on being against the other side or talking about the risk they pose (all true!) doesn’t match our general national optimism, so it becomes like what Katherine Graham said - democrats kill a dinner party because the world is always coming to an end. Biden was great in Detroit - but then lacks a certain realism. Raising the national minimum wage isn’t happening unless he’s reelected *and* there are 60 votes in the senate and a dem majority in the house. You gotta go there. Otherwise we just give them one more promise not kept.

For all its manifest flaws, and they are legion, project 2025 is clear. And they will do it. And it reads as a forward looking thing. We are not telling the country what we will do, only what we will prevent. No wonder all the talk is about replacing him on the ballot.

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deletedJul 13
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Dude, I’m outside all the time. I’m as liberal as they come but the only thing I can come up with is that dems are afraid he’s going to win so they’re throwing the election so it can be about that and not the other stuff. (For the record, I’m outside right now!)

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Further evidence that the Electoral College must be abolished.

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Amen to that. Depressing that my vote counts for so much less than others,

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deletedJul 13
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The problem with the electoral college isn’t new and it is a serious problem. It is the mechanism by which Republican presidential candidates lose the popular vote by millions and “win” anyway. It stems directly from another scheme the founders cooked up whereby Wyoming gets as many senators as California. When you combine that with the absurd gerrymanders in congressional districts you have the recipe for absolute domination by an obnoxious minority. Surely that isn’t what the founders intended. In fact, they had no clue what the federal government would become or that some cities would have more American voters than some states. Passing constitutional amendments to fix these problems would require the cooperation of the comparatively empty states, which we might assume will never happen. The option is to start over. From scratch. Or pretend the majority of Americans will be happily governed by their rural peers, whose policies they find repugnant, forever and without complaint, while continuing to fund the loser red states who oppress them.

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deletedJul 13
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When have Democrats lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College? Nice try, but total BS. The EC, plus other structural factors Kelly outlined all benefit one party and it's not Democrats. Whataboutism just doesn't fly here.

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I think every time the winner loses people talk about it a bit. It’s screwed up all the time. When it doesn’t matter, no it isn’t a controversy. Seems obvious that to me. Glad you find that funny. Bet you enjoy a nice game of peek a boo too.

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deletedJul 13
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Slinks off unwilling to argue that 2 senators and 3 electoral college votes for a voter in Wyoming is consistent with the principle of one person one vote because doesn’t have time to “explain it to me.”

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No, it wasn’t. It has been and is unfair.

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deletedJul 13
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Ever notice the more anonymous people are, the smarter they are?

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deletedJul 13
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But why not? Just because? Why isn’t California 4 states, and New York 2? You know that kind of makes sense, right? Why isn’t Puerto Rico a state? Shouldn’t D.C. have actual votes in Congress or the Senate? Maybe put D.C. into Pennsylvania for Congressional purposes. Do you actually know why California is one state and Wyoming is one state? People in Northern California have less in common with people in Southern California than people in Wyoming do with the Dakotas. And two Dakotas? Cmon. There’s no real logic there. That didn’t spring from history or language or culture. They’re just lines on a map. But the result is the minority wins. Why do votes in North Dakota count more than votes in NYC? What’s patriotic about that?

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I don’t know why a dude in Montana gets 74 votes to my one.

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deletedJul 13
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Teach me? That’s awesome. Yeah let’s agree that wouldn’t be a good a use of time.

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My vote counts less than someone who lives in Wyoming. That's why it should be abolished

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deletedJul 13
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I'm glad you acknowledge the Electoral College is flawed.

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At this stage, I'm inclined to agree Biden will hang on. He's clearly not taking any of the hints to leave and in the absence of clearly defined and substantive opposition in conjunction with some support from establishment Democrats, inertia as much as anything else will keep him there. A mistake in my opinion. At some point between now and the election I fully anticipate another Biden moment akin to the first debate and that will only serve to reinforce already majority doubts about him. So Trump is likely to win, maybe not by a lot, but he'll win. The real question remains how much damage Biden does by remaining in the race to the rest of the Democrats' prospects and I think that is very much an unresolved question (and a major reason for the inability of the Democrats to coalesce either for or against Biden right now).

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founding

Richard Keeling, why are you so sure Biden is going to lose. Please don't buy what the Political Industrial Complex is trying to sell. That Biden had an awful debate night is an understatement,but that does not necessarily mean that we should conclude that he's going to lose in November. Chris Cilliza candidly stated in his post that Trump is still Trump. That also means Trump will still show the American people who he really is and why they voted him out in 2020 and why they would not vote for him (Trump) in November. Richard Keeling, please keep the faith, Biden is going to win November

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Of course, I am not sure Biden will lose, it's simply what I believe. You seem to believe that anyone who does not share your unwavering opinion is somehow influenced by weird conspiracy theory constructs such as the 'Political Industrial Complex'. In doing so, you reveal rigidity of thought no different from the most dedicated MAGA aficionado.

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Speaking as a Canuck, it’s really “nice” to see Americans disagreeing with civility!

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founding

Let's keep the faith and take 5 more people with us to the voting booth to vote for decency in November. If we all do that Biden(decency) wins .

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Ah, but there's the rub. I can drive just a few miles from my home out into the Missouri countryside and I'll find plenty of people who say exactly the same thing - about Trump! And you know what, just like you they are fine people who believe very strongly they are right.

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founding

But one thing I know these fine people will not say about Biden is that Biden is convicted felon and that he's an adjusted rapist. These great people probably like Trump's policies. But many more people in this country not only like Biden's policies, they also love Biden's decency and honesty.

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Nate Silver (who I think is the creator of the 538 website and is no longer there) gives Biden a 27% chance of winning the electoral college. ( His probability that Biden win the popular vote is 43%) My own iestimation is both probabilities are lower than this. I just firmly believe that Kamala is a much better person to prosecute the case of how unfit Trump is to be president. The percent of voters that think Biden is fit to serve another 4 year term has to be very low.

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founding

I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's analytic acumen. But remember he gave Hilary Clinton more than 70% chance of winning in 2016. How did that turn out?. Also, ABC's 538 model as of today gives Biden 51 % chance of winning and Trump 48% chance. Of course, they rightly caveat it with the statement that it's not meant to be predictI've of what will happen in November.

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One small point - 2016 was a lifetime ago in polling, and those election results caused pollsters to revise their models. Using Nate’s 2016 pollster miss to buttress your argument is not valid.

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founding

Yes, they claimed they have remedied whatever happened in 2016 and yet, they still got it wrong in 2020 and 2022( the so called red wave never come to pass in 2022)

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My sense was the “Red Wave” was more a media driven thing versus what the best pollsters were saying.

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In terms of the national popular vote, the 2020 predictions were within margin of error, though understating Trump support. The state polls were less accurate, as usual, and the win in WI, MI, PA came down to about 40k votes. That was a very unusual year for a variety of reasons. Keep in mind, 70% is not 100%. The 51/48 probability still bases a lot on fundamentals like economic conditions and incumbency. That can change quickly. Nate Silver this year says doing nothing may be the riskiest approach for Democrats to take.

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founding

Nanceem, I have some qualms with your comment. One, if I remember very well, Biden won Michigan by some 150,000, Pennsylvania by about 80, and Wisconsin by about 20,000. No 2, the fundamentals like incubency would not change because Biden remains the incumbent President

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If everyone who opposes Donald J Trump votes, then Biden wins.

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Mostly the political industrial complex is telling us to shut up and get behind Biden. I'm basing my fear that Biden can't win on the polling averages, which have consistently favored Trump since Oct of last year. Contrast that with the polls for the year leading to Nov 2020, in which Biden NEVER was behind. Add to that the state polls that are also trending against Biden, even in presumed safe states. Top that off with the disqualifying debate performance, the way Biden's team has managed his appearances, keeping them to a minimum, scripting his comments, providing question lists in advance. More and more reporting is revealing comments from insiders, reflecting this concern, going back months. And finally, look at Trump's clear desire to run against Biden. Read Tim Alberta's current piece in the Atlantic. Trump's team is giddy with anticipation of a big win.

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No reference to Biden’s post-NATO meeting Press Conference?

I thought he did well, especially for a stutterer. The average person is more afraid of public speaking than death.

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His Press Conference was ‘requested’ by Chris C in his Point 3.

(Perhaps he copied & pasted it without edit from a

pre-Press Conference report?)

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deletedJul 13
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I will admit I don’t want to be guilty of Ageism.

Biden answered questions well from different media, without teleprompters. He made sense of deeply complex issues …

from memory.

(Yes he had a few senior misspeaks; wouldn’t it be fascinating to see how long he’d survive with a VicePresident Trump ?! 😵‍💫🤪)

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Fascinating to observe all the chatter about Project 2025 and seeing Trump running from it [and, Dobbs]. Part of me thinks we should just keep talking about Project 2025 and keep it bubbling to the top of the discourse pile -- there's so much in it to dislike!

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deletedJul 13
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They ignore it at their peril. Kind of rare to see a 900-page bulleted list, and every single item is bad for the common people, and some of them are devastating.

None of my bills have DOUBLED; not even over decades. Food prices have spiked in four years -- how much of that is broken supply chains and pure, unadulterated greed [look at corporate profit margins] with inflation used as an excuse? Biden noted such in his press conference a couple days ago.

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The D's need to make 2025 real - actual impacts not theoretical. Seems like this is starting to happen. If you can do this in a way that resonates and continue to point out Trump's character and behavioral health issues, I believe it could make a difference.

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A couple of other things are true too:

1. Republicans have a structural advantage in the electoral college. They can lose the popular vote by around 3% as Trump did in 2016, and still win. Even assuming the best polls are even or up 2 for Biden, it's not enough.

2. Again, elections are won at the margins. Biden will have to convince independent voters that he is capable. Those voters are going to be hard to break through to, given all the memes and videos of his debate performance and gaffes. I love Joe Biden but I don't think it's possible.

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I super agree. He needs independents, moderate Republicans and especially low motivated voters.

My assumption is that the low motivated voters will definitely be the ones who look at both choices and say it’s not worth voting and stay home. Those are the folks he got last time that I truly believe will not vote for him. And he needs those votes badly To beat Trump.

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Wow.

Trump staring out into the crowd, blood on his face, raising his fist in defiance.

Democrats can just fold now.

They were one inch away from a 2nd Amendment solution ...

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Even if an assassination attempt succeeded, this country is so filled with Trump-loving haters that the corrupt GOP party could quickly replace him. I do hope the shooter's name is not made public - his family would be at great risk of threats from Trumpers. Have you heard about the threats to Stormy Daniels and her young daughter? Rape and death threats. Imagine what could happen to the family of someone who tried to shoot Trump.

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Have you heard about the death and rape threats to JK Rowling (and many other women) for defending women's rights to single-sex spaces?

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no haven't heard - but nothing surprises me any more, sadly.

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Well, I'm genuinely shocked (if you're not gaslighting). I hope you know how much the Democratic party is doing to damage women and girls, here are some left-wing radical feminist writers and organizations from whom you can learn more about it:

https://www.goodreads.com/author/list/21990140.Kara_Dansky

https://womensliberationfront.org/news

https://womensdeclarationusa.com

https://www.iwv.org

https://womensbillofrights.com

https://karadansky.substack.com

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What bothers me is--and I understand Biden is busy running the country--if he could consistently perform adequately in public settings, he would have been a lot more visible. It's not that someone just woke up and realized it was an election year. He's had two jobs: to effectively present his platform, and expose the idiocy of Donald Trump. Quite frankly, Trump's debate performance was a huge 'softball' to any competent politician (I'm not a huge Harris fan, but I'm convinced she would have drilled Trump a new asshole).

It pains me to say "Trump" and "correct" in the same sentence, but Trump is correct, they both should submit to an independent examination (I doubt both would score high, so be careful what you ask for, 45).....

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Biden’s regression over the past two years, both mentally and physically is blatantly obvious and beyond just being forgetful. He is simply going to get older and less capable. He is being celebrated now just for getting through a campaign speech read off of a teleprompter without screwing up. He and his staff saying that his debate performance was just a bad night and a one off is total wishcasting and bs. If he continues to regress at the same rate, he won’t make it through another term. This isn’t about feeling bad for Biden and hoping for a miracle; it’s about beating Trump. We need a new candidate.

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Where we are now ? Someone took shots at Trump at his rally. That’s what you get when you provoke violence.

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Or when you tell people that Trump is an existential threat to "our democracy".

For anyone who believes that, assassinating him is an act of patriotism.

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Whelp… prepare for America to turn into a Fascist kleptocracy in January 2025.

I’d suggest folks check out the remarkable similarities between 2024 USA and 1932 Germany…. an aged and doddering President. A nonfunctional government. A charismatic dictator wannabe running for office. And the Supreme Court has essentially replicated the Enabling Acts (this is what gave Hitler the legal authority to do anything he wanted in his official capacity…)

If Biden insists upon running and loses to Trump, his legacy will be destroyed. He will go down in history as the selfish old man that allowed Fascism in America to take root.

Personally, I’m making plans to emigrate to Mexico.

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Right, things are SO much better in Mexico.

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Yup. No Trump Nazis in Mexico. And law enforcement and the judiciary don’t even pretend that they aren’t corrupt. The Mexican Supreme Court (Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nación) doesn't pretend that they are a neutral, non-partisan court of last resort to ensure that rights are protected. No one expects the judiciary in Mexico to be impartial. They are open for business and everyone knows it - so no one is surprised when they issue nonsensical rulings that favor a party, corporation, or wealthy donor. Unlike SCOTUS, which until recently has had the reputation for being independent and impartial.

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Prayers for President Trump!

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Well, I don't pray and I don't like Donald Trump, but I do hope he's not seriously hurt and recovers.

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Chris my friend what are you smoking? I had to look at the date of this again - yes, you wrote this today. As of yesterday there were a great many asking Biden to step aside who were not anonymous - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/biden-drop-out-democrats.html - mostly Representatives and only 1 senator. But Reps are not insignificant.

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I have watched Biden over his last couple of appearances, and he looks and sounds much better. That said, the debate was so unexpectedly and startlingly awful that it will take more than a couple of good days to convince voters of his consistency. What really needs to happen, is for Democratic leadership, the folks who actually see and interact with Biden, to give a full-throated endorsement to his candidacy, if they really think that he is in it to November. If they don’t think that he can survive this, they must unilaterally say so, with names attached, no innuendo or off-the-record snarks. And come up with a “plan B”.. On the positive side, Trump is still Trump. If Biden needs a cognitive test, the so does Donald. *Sharks and boats..yes, oh yes,says “president” Trump.* He is even worse now than he was in 2020. His association with Project 2025 will hurt him. If his awfulness can be drummed into the voting public every day, the election result may surprise us. Division in the opposition to Donald J Trump and Trumpism,must end.

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You are really grasping at straws at this point…..

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I an holding on to the little that I have. I am angry at Democratic leadership for hiding Biden’s deficiencies from the public, I am angry at their mealymouthed approach to handling the candidacy situation. All that I have is the (D) on the ballot, and that’s what I am voting for. Because second Trump administration would be intolerable. If all who oppose Trump and Trumpism will vote for the (D), then Trump loses.

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It's very plausible that a week from now, you'll be writing a very different sort of column, "8 Big Thoughts on Why Joe Left the 2024 Race". And one more thing...that quip from "Truth Social" that you quoted here...the tone of that quote is much too temperate and reasonable...Donald Trump did NOT write that. Someone else did.

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Good rundown, if discouraging for Team Blue. I look forward to your analysis of efforts to make items from Project 2025 salient to the voters I’ll be canvassing.

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