8 electoral maps that explain where we are

Let's dig in!

Kamala Harris is only in her 3rd full day as the (very) likely Democratic presidential nominee.

She’s still very much in the honeymoon period — getting loads of positive press while Democrats fall all over themselves to attend her rallies and give her money.

But though it’s early, I DO think it’s worth looking at how (and whether) Harris could change the electoral map as she tries to secure the 270 votes she needs to beat Donald Trump and keep the White House in Democratic hands.

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Her campaign is already talking about how they see the map — and how that vision differs from the map under Joe Biden.

“The Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her,” a Democratic operative close to Harris told Politico on Tuesday. “The opportunity with her … is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And however those four states go, the rest of the country will follow.”

Which, well:

Two notes to back up that idea:

1. A poll released in Georgia on Tuesday showed Trump ahead of Harris by only 1.5 points.

2. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked closely with Barack Obama’s team, suggested that North Carolina might be back in play with Harris on the ticket.

I wanted to put together a few — ok, 8 — possible maps that detail how Harris and Trump get to 270.

Let’s start with where the map is today, according to the terrific site 270towin.com:

This seems, in the main, correct to me. Trump starts ahead with 251 electoral votes as compared to 226 for Harris. We could quibble about whether Georgia — and its 16 electoral votes — are a toss up or lean Republican but, again, today I think this is an accurate reflection of where things stand.

Now, here’s what the map looks like if you buy the idea that Harris will overperform Biden in North Carolina and Georgia due to the large black populations in both states:

Moving those two states to toss up means that Harris and Trump start on, basically, even ground — with 93 electoral votes up for grabs.

Candidly, I don’t think Harris (or any Democrat) can win North Carolina. But let’s say she is able to take Georgia and Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Here’s that map:

That’s winner for Democrats. In fact, Harris could lose either Georgia OR Arizona and still get to 270. Here’s the map if she loses Georgia for example:

It’s 271 electoral votes but it’s still a win! (If Harris won Georgia and lost Arizona, she would be at 276 electoral votes.)

The truth is that Harris — at least as of today — does have more paths to 270 than Biden did. Biden’s only realistic path was to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania given that Nevada, Arizona and Georgia looked very tough for him.

With that said, I still think the map favors Trump — meaning that the former president has more paths to 270 electoral votes than does the vice president.

Trump can lose Michigan and Wisconsin and still be WELL over 270 if he can win Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — all of which lean toward him right now.

Heck, he could even lose, say, Arizona, and win with 276 electoral votes.

And Trump, unlike Harris, could likely weather a loss in Pennsylvania (and even Michigan) if he is able to carry Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin:

Trump also has more opportunities to expand beyond the current six swing states than does Harris. At the moment, Virginia and Minnesota both look close — although we don’t have data on a Harris-Trump matchup yet. If both or either of those states go to Trump, his paths to 270 grow even more.

For example, if Trump won Virginia, he could lose Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and still be elected president.

Ok, so that’s a LOT of maps. Let me distill this into a few takeaways:

1. Harris has more viable paths to 270 electoral votes than did Biden

2. Trump has more places (Virginia and Minnesota) to expand the map than does Harris (North Carolina)

3. The overall map STILL favors Trump as he has more paths to 270 than does Harris

4. A blowout — 330+ electoral votes — for either candidate is extremely unlikely