There was ZERO chance of Biden winning. No realistic path to victory.
Today, well, we are setting the stage Chris has set forth. When I read reporters saying yesterday that the feeling in the crowd was akin to 2008, I was grinning from ear to ear. In all honesty, I had a few tears.
I feel the Dems have finally realized they screwed up the Hillary win in 2016, Not happening this time, not screwing it up. Everyone is getting behind Kamala and taking this racehorse across the finish line.
Bye Bye Donnie. If you thought it was bad to lose to Grandpa Joe in his basement, wait till Kamala prosecutes you in the court of public opinion. A black, South Asian WOMAN is gonna take you down, and we couldn't be prouder of her.
pretty simple. A HUGE number of Dems were certain there was no way that trumpf was going to win and stayed home. Hillary simply did not pile up the overwhelming margins in a few cities that need Dem turnout to overcome rural GOP votes in those states. This was the case in Detroit, Philly, Milwaukee and a few other metro areas in those states. Take away razor thin trumpf wins in those states, and Hillary would have won. I think it was under 70,000 votes that won trumpf those 4 states. Nobody is staying home this year. Kamala will bring out the black women voters in the entire USA.
Got it. IMO opinion, the Dems really screwed the pooch when they selected Tim Kaine (who????) for VP instead of someone charismatic and more representative of the Dems voter base.
Generally the VP pick doesn't add much to the ticket, although it clearly can detract, as in Sarah Palin and probably JD Vance. I will always wonder if Biden played a final trick on the GOP and let them select Vance and then pulled out, knowing that JD is the weakest pick he could make to attract women. We might not be giving Joe enough credit. As for Tim Kaine, he didn't cost Hillary the election. If anyone did that, it was Jim Comey. When he made his Friday afternoon announcement that they were re-opening the investigation of Anthony's computer, she was done.
I’d feel much better about Harris’ electability if all she had to do was win the popular vote, which I think she will. Man, I hate the Electoral College.
Seriously, what will be the breaking point here? Hilary was a full 2% higher in the popular vote, and we just have to accept the electoral college bias...? Even if we kept the electoral college and it's inherent bias toward less-populous states, even just a proportional allocation (like ME and NE) would resolve most of the problem.
Perhaps most importantly for voter engagement, suddenly those of us who are not in swing states matter. Imagine just how different that alone would feel outside the swing states...suddenly you're feeling like you're in an actual [mostly] unbiased functional democracy.
Of course Republicans will go kicking and screaming on this one, but I'm fervently hoping that at *some* point (maybe when the losing candidate gets more than 50% of the popular vote?) the popular outcry on this is will be enough...a guy can dream.
SOOOOOOOOO glad that I'm a subscriber. I really do appreciate your "straight down the middle" approach. I'm really tired of other content providers trying to manipulate my emotions or telling me what they think I want to hear ("Kamala BLOWING OUT Trump after only 3 days!!!!!!!!)
1. Yes, North Carolina is a stretch, but impossible? Their current governor is a Democrat. Their attorney general is a Democrat (and candidate for governor against the wacko, bigoted Republican Lt. Governor). There could be a major surprise there.
2. Your analysis of where things stand today seems on the mark, but let's not forget that Trump essentially has a ceiling. Politico reported a 700% (!) increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris.
North Carolina is a pretty evenly split state, between Dems and Repubs. We have a very uneven split among House representatives and in the state legislature favoring GOP because of some of the worst gerrymandering in the country. But in statewide contests it is better. Dem Cooper has had two terms. Both GOP senators won by less than 2 percentage points. Dems will be helped by who is undoubtedly the worst governor candidate in the country - GOP Mark Robinson (OK to kill people not on the right side, and women shouldn’t be allowed to vote. he could have a real drag on the trump vote.
I also don't see North Carolina as impossible for Democrats. It certainly favors Trump, and I'm guessing it's less of a focus than most/all of the other swing states, but Trump only won it by ~1.3% in 2020. It's not hard to imagine Harris getting a narrow win there.
I could be waaaaay oversimplifying this, but could Harris simply be nothing more than the candidate that is the solution to the Biden/Trump dilemma?
Currently we have the following:
1) Voters that don't strongly support Trump, his policies, proposals, etc, but were reluctantly going to pull the lever for him because they viewed him as being more "on the ball" than Biden?
2) Voters that would ordinarily support Biden but are staying on the sidelines due to his current mental and physical condition - but who would never vote for Trump?
Voters are now presented with Harris. She's younger and still has all of her marbles. She is by no means an ideal candidate, in fact voters may have qualms about some of her positions. But in some ways she represents a return to the pre-Trump days. Voters trust that if she proposes something that is too radical, the checks-and-balances of Capitol Hill will prevent these policies from moving forward.
Given the choice between an authoritative dictatorship under Trump and an imperfect candidate that would at least provide America with a chance for continued freedom, democracy, and optimism for the future, voters are more willing to take a chance on Harris (and the hope for a better tomorrow) instead of the past that Trump represents?
I respect your position. The decision to support any candidate is a uniquely personal one.
May I ask if you are planning on voting for Trump, RFK Jr (or another third-party candidate) or just not entering a vote for any Presidential candidate?
Gotta say, I don't really understand the "not voting for anyone" stance. I guess I could understand it if you are truly indifferent between candidates, and willing to leave it to the rest of the country to decide...especially if there was no meaningful difference between candidates.
But regardless of how much you like/dislike each candidate, I don't think anyone could say they are similar; they present radically different paths forward.
So it just boils down to choosing the best available alternative. Sure, ideally I might like to see another option (e.g. in theory, I really wish there was a centrist 3rd party), but given the alternatives, to "earn" my vote, Kamala just had to avoid being worse than Trump, and I can't imagine a lower bar than that.
Chris also frequently argues it is a straightforward binary choice. With Biden/Trump, it wasn’t that simple for me. I wasn’t going to vote for Biden (again) just because I didn’t like Trump. I already completely disagreed with the intraparty politics of not challenging an 81 year old incumbent out of respect for his seniority, but then find out they also lied about his fitness to serve the whole time! I’m under no illusion that withholding my vote would change party politics, but I don’t want to support that kind of mindset and/or behavior.
As for Trump/Harris, it’s more complicated. I liked Biden and I want to like Harris, but I’m not going to jump on the bandwagon just because she’s not Trump. Trump sucks, but like Chris says, I don’t think he’s going to destroy democracy. I also don’t want to look at my vote as a vote to stop Trump. I want to vote for someone that IMO is right for the job. Ultimately, if Trump wins via the ballot box, I can’t really argue that he doesn’t deserve it. Maybe that will force the Democratic Party to rethink the consequences of trying not to hurt anyone’s feelings.
I think it all boils down to the degree to which you see Trump (and Trumpism) as a risk to the US system of government -- and I'm not talking about Nazi Germany or some other hyperbolic fear, but there are still some very bad outcomes under Trump that I think are likely, or at least very possible.
Anne Applebaum's has a new book out that goes into all this in much more detail, and she did a recent podcast with Sam Harris discussing it.
I totally agree with you on the potential bad outcomes. I've previously argued in these comment threads that the consequences of those outcomes are probably the only way to get MAGA voters to reject Trumpism. I have no idea what will happen if he were to deport all illegal immigrants, run the US economy like it's his own personal business, and withdraw from all international alliances, but my guess is it will be bad....for everyone. :(
Definitely not voting for Trump or RFK Jr. Definitely open to Harris if she is willing to govern from center left and work with moderates on both sides.
I just heard Donny Deutsch say " it's the women, stupid" ( as in Carville's words about the economy). I totally agree. Between their views on reproductive rights and JDs horrifying words about cat loving, childless women, women can walk away with this.
I think Virginia will be back in Dem hands within a week or two. Virginia was like the canary in a coal mine, which should be back in good health soon.
Senator Tim Kaine (former DNC chair) is also a strong campaigner.
A prediction: Harris wins Wisconsin. Period. Milwaukee will turn out in droves for Harris. Madison will turn out in nearly unprecedented numbers, and that's saying a lot for the city that nearly leads the league in turnout. The remainder of small-and-smaller-town Wisconsin will not be able to overcome Madison and Milwaukee.
Harris has to keep things reasonably close in the suburban Milwaukee counties; similar to what Biden did. Winning Dane County and MKE in a blowout alone doesn’t get her a Wisconsin win, but getting close to 40% in the WOW counties could push her over the top.
I think Harris has the possibility (maybe probability?) of outdoing the Biden vote in the WOW counties. Trump has a bad situation with women voters in the collar counties and Vance is, remarkably, making that bad situation even worse. We'll find out in November, of course, but I am much more optimistic about Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties than I was two weeks ago!
I am trying hard not to take offense at the line about Democrats falling all over themselves. Democrats are fired up because we now have a good deal of optimism and hope. We have a highly qualified woman who is exuding energy and who is focusing on the issues that put women in peril of their health, try to subvert the availability to vote and knows we must continue to support Ukraine. She is forthright and ready. So if my party is also exuding renewed energy and enthusiasm they deserve to do so!
You said: "Trump can lose Michigan and Wisconsin and still be WELL over 270 if he can win Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — all of which lean toward him right now." But it looks like on that map, you have also flipped PA to Trump. That (PA) seems like the biggest stretch of those four.
I hope folks are feeling energized now and are ready to act. When Biden was running, some people said “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now they’re saying “Kamala is raising so much money, I don’t need to do anything.” Don’t be lazy and passive, as so many people are. The stakes are too high. I’ve looked at many groups/sites and these are what I think are most effective:
There's an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of very smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. Register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms are fascinating, they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. But those who can't donate, you can forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know.
Downballot races matter too. – State Congress, governors - and judges are sometimes elected. States are particularly important in protecting abortion rights and voter rights if Trump is re-elected. Visit app.oath.vote - they identify the most crucial races where your donations can make a difference. We can only vote where we live, but we can donate money nationwide - and we can also email our friends around the country.
Folks, if you don’t have time to get involved, pls. forward this message to 5 or 10 people you know. This country’s future hangs in the balance.
Thanks for the in depth analysis, Chris. I have been more hopeful in recent days than for the last year, but these maps sort of take the wind out of my sails. But as we’ve just seen, anything can happen, right?
Is Harris stuck with Biden's standing in Michigan (due to his support of Israel), or is there a chance some of these voters could/would support Harris - viewing her as being the vehicle to deliver a policy that's more in-line with the position of these voters?
A California liberal will have a very tough time winning in the Midwest battle ground states (esp when she’s a poor candidate to begin with). Trump was again very smart and shrewd to pick JD Vance to solidly these much needed states in the electoral college equation. Trump still playing chess while everyone else playing checkers.
trumps reptilian brain doesn't have the mental acuity to play checkers, let alone chess. He's just lashing out at any and all perceived threats. The guy is his own worst enemy and his mouth being disconnected from his brain is the gift that keeps on giving. The ONLY smart thing I ever saw him do was shut the fuck up while Biden was burying himself in the debate. Other than that, the guy has the self control of a 4 year old ADD child.. 2020 was his to win, and all he had to do was shut up. We know how that went.
Well, @dutchmaga, the Trump campaign (and virtually every political pundit I’ve read) disagrees with you on JD Vance. Trump HAD the opportunity to build his EC options with the choice of VP, but he listened to his dotard failsons and picked a man that adds literally NOTHING to his campaign instead. No wonder they’re having buyer’s remorse!
As Trump tries to run away from his positions on abortion (“give it to the states!”) and tries to court suburban women voters, JD Vance’s truly *radical* opinions, and comments in his recent speeches, will force the vast majority of Americans ( who OVERWHELMINGLY agree that women should have control of their own bodies, and NOT state or federal governments) to look long and hard at whether Trump-Vance matches their opinions.
And the truth? They don’t!
And I think the framing that we’re already seeing, ie “The Prosecutor vs. The Convicted Felon”, is outrageously strong and encapsulates this election in a way that’s easy for even the average person who rarely pays attention to politics can easily understand, in ways that Biden was simply not able to.
It’s going to be a hard fought battle and I take nothing for granted, but *everything* has changed in this election now, and Vance doesn’t change ONE THING for Trump’s chances. Just look at the shift in polling for corroboration.
So amusing. You put out your half-baked thoughts, I respond in detail, and the best you can do is to say the embarrassingly obvious, ie “we’ll know on Nov. 5th”? (It’ll actually be closer to the 6th or maybe even 7th, as no doubt the count will be slow and I would imagine, like 2020, that Trump won’t accept the results and will demand recounts…).
You’re TOTALLY wrong about Vance, and he’s going to be a drag on your Dear Leader’s campaign!
She’s a former prosecutor who was criticized for being too tough, so that attack doesn’t land. And Trumpland admitted Vance was a confidence play meant to run up the score instead of winning new support. Seems they regret the choice. He is the Midwest Ted Cruz. Focus groups show he is unlikable and holds very extreme positions on abortion.
plus he has the charisma of his pet rock and the public speaking ability of a dead toad. Can you imagine for one nanosecond if Biden planned this whole thing out and punked trumpf into naming this jerk before he quit? It would be the mark of a true master.
Queen Gambit by Dems in play; checker boards put away. Market jumped when Trump nominated and not in a good way. More towards inflation, which is where we will be heading again under Trump. He can't go much deeper on tax cuts without disrupting the economy...maybe another 1% cut and that won't make any impact. He threatened to take over the feds. Banks and world markets will not like that. He will put USA in tariffs war. Americans not ready for austerity economy. On top of the war against women's reproductive freedom and a platform that follows project 2025 including miillions of working people removed from USA, how is he shrewd? He thinks he is the Messiah and he is not. Love the new book out by nephew today. Eyewitness to the crude, rude, and lewd uncle.
James Carville out with an interesting thought today…. Guy has a lot of wisdom. Was a loud voice for JB to exit stage left and very skeptical, with good reason, bout Harris. Guys been around a long time and can smell a lot of weakness with the Ds moving forward…..
Carville today said tough road "But having said that, there’s been real growth in Vice President Harris. I mean, you can just see the difference,” he continued later in the interview, highlighted by Mediaite. “And she just looked so confident to me yesterday.”
He added, “I liked what I saw, I’ll be honest with you."
Think about this. Let's explore ancient history.
As in, last Saturday. Yep, that long ago.
There was ZERO chance of Biden winning. No realistic path to victory.
Today, well, we are setting the stage Chris has set forth. When I read reporters saying yesterday that the feeling in the crowd was akin to 2008, I was grinning from ear to ear. In all honesty, I had a few tears.
I feel the Dems have finally realized they screwed up the Hillary win in 2016, Not happening this time, not screwing it up. Everyone is getting behind Kamala and taking this racehorse across the finish line.
Bye Bye Donnie. If you thought it was bad to lose to Grandpa Joe in his basement, wait till Kamala prosecutes you in the court of public opinion. A black, South Asian WOMAN is gonna take you down, and we couldn't be prouder of her.
I’m not sure if I was *quite* as pessimistic about Biden as you, but I’m with you 💯 on Kamala! I’ve slept better the last few days…
I could only press LIKE on this, but I LOVE it.
Your lips to God's ears! But out of curiousity, how do you think the Dems screwed up with Hilary in 2016?
pretty simple. A HUGE number of Dems were certain there was no way that trumpf was going to win and stayed home. Hillary simply did not pile up the overwhelming margins in a few cities that need Dem turnout to overcome rural GOP votes in those states. This was the case in Detroit, Philly, Milwaukee and a few other metro areas in those states. Take away razor thin trumpf wins in those states, and Hillary would have won. I think it was under 70,000 votes that won trumpf those 4 states. Nobody is staying home this year. Kamala will bring out the black women voters in the entire USA.
Got it. IMO opinion, the Dems really screwed the pooch when they selected Tim Kaine (who????) for VP instead of someone charismatic and more representative of the Dems voter base.
Generally the VP pick doesn't add much to the ticket, although it clearly can detract, as in Sarah Palin and probably JD Vance. I will always wonder if Biden played a final trick on the GOP and let them select Vance and then pulled out, knowing that JD is the weakest pick he could make to attract women. We might not be giving Joe enough credit. As for Tim Kaine, he didn't cost Hillary the election. If anyone did that, it was Jim Comey. When he made his Friday afternoon announcement that they were re-opening the investigation of Anthony's computer, she was done.
I’d feel much better about Harris’ electability if all she had to do was win the popular vote, which I think she will. Man, I hate the Electoral College.
Seriously, what will be the breaking point here? Hilary was a full 2% higher in the popular vote, and we just have to accept the electoral college bias...? Even if we kept the electoral college and it's inherent bias toward less-populous states, even just a proportional allocation (like ME and NE) would resolve most of the problem.
Perhaps most importantly for voter engagement, suddenly those of us who are not in swing states matter. Imagine just how different that alone would feel outside the swing states...suddenly you're feeling like you're in an actual [mostly] unbiased functional democracy.
Of course Republicans will go kicking and screaming on this one, but I'm fervently hoping that at *some* point (maybe when the losing candidate gets more than 50% of the popular vote?) the popular outcry on this is will be enough...a guy can dream.
SOOOOOOOOO glad that I'm a subscriber. I really do appreciate your "straight down the middle" approach. I'm really tired of other content providers trying to manipulate my emotions or telling me what they think I want to hear ("Kamala BLOWING OUT Trump after only 3 days!!!!!!!!)
Thanks for what you do - and how you do it.
A couple of reactions:
1. Yes, North Carolina is a stretch, but impossible? Their current governor is a Democrat. Their attorney general is a Democrat (and candidate for governor against the wacko, bigoted Republican Lt. Governor). There could be a major surprise there.
2. Your analysis of where things stand today seems on the mark, but let's not forget that Trump essentially has a ceiling. Politico reported a 700% (!) increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris.
North Carolina is a pretty evenly split state, between Dems and Repubs. We have a very uneven split among House representatives and in the state legislature favoring GOP because of some of the worst gerrymandering in the country. But in statewide contests it is better. Dem Cooper has had two terms. Both GOP senators won by less than 2 percentage points. Dems will be helped by who is undoubtedly the worst governor candidate in the country - GOP Mark Robinson (OK to kill people not on the right side, and women shouldn’t be allowed to vote. he could have a real drag on the trump vote.
I also don't see North Carolina as impossible for Democrats. It certainly favors Trump, and I'm guessing it's less of a focus than most/all of the other swing states, but Trump only won it by ~1.3% in 2020. It's not hard to imagine Harris getting a narrow win there.
Agreed 💯!
“ Politico reported a 700% (!) increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris”
This hasn’t really been true in the last few cycles, Republicans are winning the high turnout elections and losing lower turnouts.
Really? Democrats took back Congress in 2018, won the White House in 2020, and squelched the expected "Red Wave" in 2022.
"The elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022 were three of the highest-turnout U.S. elections of their respective types in decades."
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/
"https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2023/07/PP_2023.07.12_validated-voters_1-01.png"
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html
Check the image and look at people who didn't vote in any of the 2018-2022 in particular.
Though I guess they're not winning elections, so that was wrong.
Chris,
I could be waaaaay oversimplifying this, but could Harris simply be nothing more than the candidate that is the solution to the Biden/Trump dilemma?
Currently we have the following:
1) Voters that don't strongly support Trump, his policies, proposals, etc, but were reluctantly going to pull the lever for him because they viewed him as being more "on the ball" than Biden?
2) Voters that would ordinarily support Biden but are staying on the sidelines due to his current mental and physical condition - but who would never vote for Trump?
Voters are now presented with Harris. She's younger and still has all of her marbles. She is by no means an ideal candidate, in fact voters may have qualms about some of her positions. But in some ways she represents a return to the pre-Trump days. Voters trust that if she proposes something that is too radical, the checks-and-balances of Capitol Hill will prevent these policies from moving forward.
Given the choice between an authoritative dictatorship under Trump and an imperfect candidate that would at least provide America with a chance for continued freedom, democracy, and optimism for the future, voters are more willing to take a chance on Harris (and the hope for a better tomorrow) instead of the past that Trump represents?
Or does my balloon need to land?
Speaking as just one voter, I don’t see her as - even at minimum - a solution to that dilemma for me. She still has to earn my vote.
I respect your position. The decision to support any candidate is a uniquely personal one.
May I ask if you are planning on voting for Trump, RFK Jr (or another third-party candidate) or just not entering a vote for any Presidential candidate?
Gotta say, I don't really understand the "not voting for anyone" stance. I guess I could understand it if you are truly indifferent between candidates, and willing to leave it to the rest of the country to decide...especially if there was no meaningful difference between candidates.
But regardless of how much you like/dislike each candidate, I don't think anyone could say they are similar; they present radically different paths forward.
So it just boils down to choosing the best available alternative. Sure, ideally I might like to see another option (e.g. in theory, I really wish there was a centrist 3rd party), but given the alternatives, to "earn" my vote, Kamala just had to avoid being worse than Trump, and I can't imagine a lower bar than that.
Chris also frequently argues it is a straightforward binary choice. With Biden/Trump, it wasn’t that simple for me. I wasn’t going to vote for Biden (again) just because I didn’t like Trump. I already completely disagreed with the intraparty politics of not challenging an 81 year old incumbent out of respect for his seniority, but then find out they also lied about his fitness to serve the whole time! I’m under no illusion that withholding my vote would change party politics, but I don’t want to support that kind of mindset and/or behavior.
As for Trump/Harris, it’s more complicated. I liked Biden and I want to like Harris, but I’m not going to jump on the bandwagon just because she’s not Trump. Trump sucks, but like Chris says, I don’t think he’s going to destroy democracy. I also don’t want to look at my vote as a vote to stop Trump. I want to vote for someone that IMO is right for the job. Ultimately, if Trump wins via the ballot box, I can’t really argue that he doesn’t deserve it. Maybe that will force the Democratic Party to rethink the consequences of trying not to hurt anyone’s feelings.
I think it all boils down to the degree to which you see Trump (and Trumpism) as a risk to the US system of government -- and I'm not talking about Nazi Germany or some other hyperbolic fear, but there are still some very bad outcomes under Trump that I think are likely, or at least very possible.
Anne Applebaum's has a new book out that goes into all this in much more detail, and she did a recent podcast with Sam Harris discussing it.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-146889209
I totally agree with you on the potential bad outcomes. I've previously argued in these comment threads that the consequences of those outcomes are probably the only way to get MAGA voters to reject Trumpism. I have no idea what will happen if he were to deport all illegal immigrants, run the US economy like it's his own personal business, and withdraw from all international alliances, but my guess is it will be bad....for everyone. :(
Definitely not voting for Trump or RFK Jr. Definitely open to Harris if she is willing to govern from center left and work with moderates on both sides.
I just heard Donny Deutsch say " it's the women, stupid" ( as in Carville's words about the economy). I totally agree. Between their views on reproductive rights and JDs horrifying words about cat loving, childless women, women can walk away with this.
I think Virginia will be back in Dem hands within a week or two. Virginia was like the canary in a coal mine, which should be back in good health soon.
Senator Tim Kaine (former DNC chair) is also a strong campaigner.
A prediction: Harris wins Wisconsin. Period. Milwaukee will turn out in droves for Harris. Madison will turn out in nearly unprecedented numbers, and that's saying a lot for the city that nearly leads the league in turnout. The remainder of small-and-smaller-town Wisconsin will not be able to overcome Madison and Milwaukee.
Harris has to keep things reasonably close in the suburban Milwaukee counties; similar to what Biden did. Winning Dane County and MKE in a blowout alone doesn’t get her a Wisconsin win, but getting close to 40% in the WOW counties could push her over the top.
I think Harris has the possibility (maybe probability?) of outdoing the Biden vote in the WOW counties. Trump has a bad situation with women voters in the collar counties and Vance is, remarkably, making that bad situation even worse. We'll find out in November, of course, but I am much more optimistic about Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties than I was two weeks ago!
I am trying hard not to take offense at the line about Democrats falling all over themselves. Democrats are fired up because we now have a good deal of optimism and hope. We have a highly qualified woman who is exuding energy and who is focusing on the issues that put women in peril of their health, try to subvert the availability to vote and knows we must continue to support Ukraine. She is forthright and ready. So if my party is also exuding renewed energy and enthusiasm they deserve to do so!
You said: "Trump can lose Michigan and Wisconsin and still be WELL over 270 if he can win Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — all of which lean toward him right now." But it looks like on that map, you have also flipped PA to Trump. That (PA) seems like the biggest stretch of those four.
Lock down the Blue Wall. Just win, baby
I hope folks are feeling energized now and are ready to act. When Biden was running, some people said “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now they’re saying “Kamala is raising so much money, I don’t need to do anything.” Don’t be lazy and passive, as so many people are. The stakes are too high. I’ve looked at many groups/sites and these are what I think are most effective:
There's an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of very smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. Register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms are fascinating, they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. But those who can't donate, you can forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know.
Downballot races matter too. – State Congress, governors - and judges are sometimes elected. States are particularly important in protecting abortion rights and voter rights if Trump is re-elected. Visit app.oath.vote - they identify the most crucial races where your donations can make a difference. We can only vote where we live, but we can donate money nationwide - and we can also email our friends around the country.
Folks, if you don’t have time to get involved, pls. forward this message to 5 or 10 people you know. This country’s future hangs in the balance.
Thanks for the in depth analysis, Chris. I have been more hopeful in recent days than for the last year, but these maps sort of take the wind out of my sails. But as we’ve just seen, anything can happen, right?
Is Harris stuck with Biden's standing in Michigan (due to his support of Israel), or is there a chance some of these voters could/would support Harris - viewing her as being the vehicle to deliver a policy that's more in-line with the position of these voters?
Chris is there a email to contact you ? I tried to subscribe and encountered a glitch.
A California liberal will have a very tough time winning in the Midwest battle ground states (esp when she’s a poor candidate to begin with). Trump was again very smart and shrewd to pick JD Vance to solidly these much needed states in the electoral college equation. Trump still playing chess while everyone else playing checkers.
trumps reptilian brain doesn't have the mental acuity to play checkers, let alone chess. He's just lashing out at any and all perceived threats. The guy is his own worst enemy and his mouth being disconnected from his brain is the gift that keeps on giving. The ONLY smart thing I ever saw him do was shut the fuck up while Biden was burying himself in the debate. Other than that, the guy has the self control of a 4 year old ADD child.. 2020 was his to win, and all he had to do was shut up. We know how that went.
Well, @dutchmaga, the Trump campaign (and virtually every political pundit I’ve read) disagrees with you on JD Vance. Trump HAD the opportunity to build his EC options with the choice of VP, but he listened to his dotard failsons and picked a man that adds literally NOTHING to his campaign instead. No wonder they’re having buyer’s remorse!
As Trump tries to run away from his positions on abortion (“give it to the states!”) and tries to court suburban women voters, JD Vance’s truly *radical* opinions, and comments in his recent speeches, will force the vast majority of Americans ( who OVERWHELMINGLY agree that women should have control of their own bodies, and NOT state or federal governments) to look long and hard at whether Trump-Vance matches their opinions.
And the truth? They don’t!
And I think the framing that we’re already seeing, ie “The Prosecutor vs. The Convicted Felon”, is outrageously strong and encapsulates this election in a way that’s easy for even the average person who rarely pays attention to politics can easily understand, in ways that Biden was simply not able to.
It’s going to be a hard fought battle and I take nothing for granted, but *everything* has changed in this election now, and Vance doesn’t change ONE THING for Trump’s chances. Just look at the shift in polling for corroboration.
November 5th! Let’s see what happens!
So amusing. You put out your half-baked thoughts, I respond in detail, and the best you can do is to say the embarrassingly obvious, ie “we’ll know on Nov. 5th”? (It’ll actually be closer to the 6th or maybe even 7th, as no doubt the count will be slow and I would imagine, like 2020, that Trump won’t accept the results and will demand recounts…).
You’re TOTALLY wrong about Vance, and he’s going to be a drag on your Dear Leader’s campaign!
He he he
She’s a former prosecutor who was criticized for being too tough, so that attack doesn’t land. And Trumpland admitted Vance was a confidence play meant to run up the score instead of winning new support. Seems they regret the choice. He is the Midwest Ted Cruz. Focus groups show he is unlikable and holds very extreme positions on abortion.
plus he has the charisma of his pet rock and the public speaking ability of a dead toad. Can you imagine for one nanosecond if Biden planned this whole thing out and punked trumpf into naming this jerk before he quit? It would be the mark of a true master.
But he likes Diet Mountain Dew. :D
“Please laugh”
Queen Gambit by Dems in play; checker boards put away. Market jumped when Trump nominated and not in a good way. More towards inflation, which is where we will be heading again under Trump. He can't go much deeper on tax cuts without disrupting the economy...maybe another 1% cut and that won't make any impact. He threatened to take over the feds. Banks and world markets will not like that. He will put USA in tariffs war. Americans not ready for austerity economy. On top of the war against women's reproductive freedom and a platform that follows project 2025 including miillions of working people removed from USA, how is he shrewd? He thinks he is the Messiah and he is not. Love the new book out by nephew today. Eyewitness to the crude, rude, and lewd uncle.
James Carville out with an interesting thought today…. Guy has a lot of wisdom. Was a loud voice for JB to exit stage left and very skeptical, with good reason, bout Harris. Guys been around a long time and can smell a lot of weakness with the Ds moving forward…..
Carville today said tough road "But having said that, there’s been real growth in Vice President Harris. I mean, you can just see the difference,” he continued later in the interview, highlighted by Mediaite. “And she just looked so confident to me yesterday.”
He added, “I liked what I saw, I’ll be honest with you."
Switch your opinion on him?