The thought that Donald Trump could become president again is terrifying, and I take no comfort from polls such as this. I do take comfort from the fact that young people and independents seem as appalled by the thought of another presidency as I.
I do also agree of practically all the candidates, he is the most likely to be defeated by a Biden-Harris ticket on the Democratic side. And contrary to a majority of Americans, I feel President Biden has earned my support for a second term; and should a disaster happen, and Joe Biden were to die in office, America can do a lot worse than having its first African American female president be Kamala Harris.
They’re a bit high on their own supply in their belief that every American “knows” the indictments are BS, and assuming that anyone who says otherwise online is a paid lying shill. I am not lying, and believe you me, I’d LOVE for someone to pay me to spout waffle about this stuff online, but I have gotten that assumption for a good thirty years. Lately they seem to have enjoyed adding the word “gaslighting” to it.
Doesn't the Electoral College turn every Presidental election into a 50/50 tossup these days? Aren't Republicans depending on the Trump loses popular vote/wins Electoral College dichotomy? As a Democrat, should these numbers be telling me to have (faint to faintly moderate) hopes of a Biden 53-47?
This is CRITICALLY important. I think that the chances of the electoral college delivering Trump a victory -- even if he (as he did in 2016 and 2020) loses the popular vote is a very really part of the consideration.
I look at the electoral map from 2020 and don’t see what states Trump could flip to win.
Hillary took PA, WI and MI for granted in 2016 and lost them. Michigan is now probably the bluest state in the country. Because of Trump, Republicans ran a grifter from NJ for Senate and an extremist MAGA loon for governor. By comparison Wisconsin doesn’t look as bad, but doesn’t look great for the GOP. The party has serious problems there.
But still, nothing compared to what they have in AZ and GA. The election shenanigans and candidate quality in both those states is not going to redound to Trump’s favor.
If Trump flipped WI, AZ and GA that would bring him to a tie. I don’t see that happening.
I doubt Biden will win GA again -- the GA Republicans will move heaven and earth to stop blacks from voting and will probably be successful.
Same with WI -- Rs own the legislature and will work incessantly to stop (especially young) people from voting in the cities (read Madison and Milwaukee); they are already planning to impeach the new D justice to protect their extreme gerrymander.
Beware people professing that Biden will win easily -- they are no more in the real world than that MAGAts who think Trump is a shoe in.
I’m not saying he’ll win easily. The country is too evenly divided for that. But, it’s not as if Republicans weren’t already making the efforts you describe. Is that easier when their party is divided?
GA has two Democratic senators. One is Jewish and one is Black. Kemp beat a MAGA opponent in David Purdue by 50 points. Raffensberger has also been re-elected. I don’t see that the MAGA brand is real popular.
I see the election of Janet Protasiewicz in Wisconsin in a special election to the Supreme Court there to be a great sign. Also, they have Kristina Karamo as head of the GOP for the state. She is still saying Trump was cheated. As a bonus, she lost by 14 points for Secretary of State and is saying she was also cheated. That’s not who I’d want running things.
I don’t believe the GOP is real unified in either state. It’s feeling the Trump Effect: ETTD.
<b>Republicans will move heaven and earth to stop blacks from voting and will probably be successful.</b>
I don’t see the reason to believe they “will probably be successful.” I’m sure they’ll try to place some roadblocks. And Democrats will work to overcome them and get out the vote. Despite her loss, Stacey Abrams seems to be an accomplished organizer.
I agree that Stacey Abrams has been amazing -- she has done more than most people. I'd love to say that the GA GOP is impotent, but sadly I don't believe that. Kemp and Rafsenberger (sp) are both under tremendous pressure from other Republicans to not let 2020 happen again.
The key in WI will be the GOP ability to stop the young people from voting. We'll have to see how successful they will be -- they have more than a year to work on it.
You realize these are the same type of reasons given for why he didn't stand a chance in 16, right? I mean, you know ALL of the pundits said he couldn't win? Remember that? Pepperidge Farms does.
See this is the "polling is bullshit" theory. I think Trump will always have a chance because of the electoral college. I just think he represents the worst chance that Republicans have. That does NOT mean I think he can't win.
Don’t really think they are the “same type of reasons.” Hillary ignored MI, WI and PA because she so confident of winning and campaigned in states she had no chance in.
This is 8 years later and Trump has a track record of presidenting, also 91 felony charges against him.
Joe Biden is Hillary Clinton. And no matter how much Republicans wish him to be, he’s also not Hunter Biden.
And as I commented, the state GOP parties are not what they were in 2016 before they were infected with Trumpism.
Kevin, if you click on the the dots immediately to the right of the 'Reply' button, one of the options for you as the author of the comment is the opportunity to edit your post, and then re-save it - hopes this helps.
I'm one of those loons who thinks Hillary would have won (electoral college as well as the popular vote) had Jim Comey not made his "we've reopened the what-about-her-emails investigation" a week and a half before the election. At the time I was working in an office full of twenty-somethings and I, the resident 50-year-old, had rallied all the Bernie Bros, of which I was one, to reluctantly supporting Hillary. After Comey's ill-advised announcement the consensus in the office was back to "they're both the same" and they avoided the ballot box in droves.
You forgot the most important factor. A ton of Republican voters actually believe - not just trolling their liberal and progressive friends and family - that trump won in 2020 and that it was stolen. Given that premise, of course they think he's more electable. If they're right about the stolen election that means trump has won twice already.
"A ton of Republican voters actually believe - not just trolling their liberal and progressive friends and family - that trump won in 2020 and that it was stolen."
I sincerely doubt this -- like all things Trump, people "embrace" the lies and BS he and the other Rs put out because they "have to" to stay in the cult. You say that you don't think it is just "owning the libs", but I think this is doing what they have to do to continue to be friends with their group. Most of these people are not stupid -- they know what's going on, so they embrace this stuff because it lets them continue to be part of the groups that share their virulent hatred of "the Jews" or "the blacks" or "the libs" or "the Muslims" or "the gays" or whatever other group their bigotry focuses on. From what I've seen, hate is the only thing that binds MAGAts or Rs together --- in order to maintain their hates, they will embrace almost anything. And that is what we see.
Some are so far gone that they inhabit an alternate reality. They may start off knowing it's a lie. But they repeat it over and over and convince themselves through repetition that it's the truth.
The idea of DeSantis as president is what terrifies me. He shown is in Florida exactly what he believes in and it is not American democracy. I don't want Trump either, but it freaks me out when people say that DeSantis could beat Biden.
I agree. And I take some hope in the fact that as people come to know DeSantis, the less they like him. To repurpose and old joke about Ted Cruz: You know why people hate DeSantis when they meet him? It saves time.
I think part of the reason many R voters aren't worried by the numbers is that they don't believe polls, and they don't believe them for two reasons: 1) they distrust anything related to the" establishment" or "elites"; 2) there is a disconnect between the numbers and their day-to-day experience, in which they are with a social group that largely supports Trump and hear affirming views from the media they consume.
Chris, do any of the 3 explanations take into account that around 30% of Republicans are cult members? I used to say that facetiously. I say it with total sincerity now.
It is so hard to put oneself into the shoes, so to speak, of a MAGA/Trump supporter...just like there is no way, at least for me, to truly understand those who followed Jim Jones, or David Koresh, Charles Manson, or the other 'leaders' who successfully encouraged their followers to participate in self-destructive acts, things they most likely would never have done on their own.
I live in a county that is reliably blue save for two college towns. We are the only county west of the fall line that is blue on election maps. I am surrounded by TFG's supporters. They literally do not let any information into their bubble that doesn't line up with what they believe. A dear friend who is a self-professed former Republican because of t**** will send me TikToks about political stuff that is bat-sh*t insane and ask me my opinion. He is getting his politcal news from freaking TikTok!! Before his conversion, the only other people in his orbit would have been the ones forwarding him the insane TikTok. Bless his heart, he told me the other day he had just found out about QAnon because of that child trafficking movie (!!) and that he didn't know a lot about it, but "some of their ideas seemed pretty good." After picking myself up off the floor I gave him a little tutorial in QAnon and assured him that fully 100% of their ideas are absolutely insane. My point being, he is a very representative example of the left half of Virginia.
Kathi - my heart goes out to you, and your friend. I wish you the patience to be able to continue to gently help your friend be open to other sources of information. And I hope you can help find peace there in Virginia.
Two things can be true here. 1) Great news if, like me, you despise Trump and everything he represents.; and 2) Despite number one above, IF he does lose (and yes, it's still an "if"), he will again scream that it was a "rigged election" and we will (horrifyingly) see more violence from his supporters.
Ian, I don't think there is ANY way that Trump admits he lost in 2024 -- no matter the outcome. The only BIG difference -- and it is big -- is that the incumbent in the White House will be Biden, not Trump. Which, I think, limits Trump's ability to try to do what he did in 2020.
This is kind of part and parcel about what I was saying about the statistical tie that non crazy people were going into a screaming muppet run about a couple weeks ago: Trump’s 43% in that poll was almost certainly something like a ceiling, and Biden’s wasn’t. There are a LOT of people who are fuzzy about saying they would rather have someone besides Biden or Trump, but if that’s the real choice in November 2024, they’re not going for Trump.
But remember: It's the electoral college that decides it, not the popular vote...So I think the assumption is that Biden wins the popular vote but his margin matters a ton as it relates to the electoral college.
Quite true. And this is where the possibility that almost 60% of the population is leaning against voting for Trump becomes crucial, and figures like “as much as half the Republican voter base will not vote for Trump if he’s been convicted of a crime” start getting relevant. It’s sad that we have to think of it in these terms, but it’s a thing.
I don't think the number is that low...but you are right that a big part of the calculation is whether they can win with, say 46% of the the national vote.
It could even need to be a little higher -- not 60% or anything near that. But recall that Biden's 81M votes was ~53.25% and a few tens of thousands shift would have had the election go the other way. Trying to define a national percentage is problematic because of the nature of the Electoral College where a small number of votes in critical states can have such a tremendous effect.
Behold! I read recently, and agree with the theory that the Republicans are gambling that once those 'Not Trump' voters realize that Biden is attempting to win by weaponizing the DOJ, those 'Not Trump' voters will "see the light" and transform into 'Yes Trump!' voters.
Deeply implausible to us, but humans are occasionally surprising in just how rapidly large numbers of you can adopt magical thinking in short timeframes.
You could be right -- but I doubt that anyone that is not already a Trump/DeSantis voter is going to say "Gee, Biden is old, so I'm going to vote for Trump (or DeSantis) because age is the only issue that is important."
An interesting poll would be to ask people their choices on a variety of policies, without a connection to party or candidate.
I realize the MAGAs wouldn't care about policy, but it would be a good exercise for ferreting out right-leaning Independents to help them feel more comfortable with Uncle Joe.
The thought that Donald Trump could become president again is terrifying, and I take no comfort from polls such as this. I do take comfort from the fact that young people and independents seem as appalled by the thought of another presidency as I.
I do also agree of practically all the candidates, he is the most likely to be defeated by a Biden-Harris ticket on the Democratic side. And contrary to a majority of Americans, I feel President Biden has earned my support for a second term; and should a disaster happen, and Joe Biden were to die in office, America can do a lot worse than having its first African American female president be Kamala Harris.
It seems like a segment of our population is ride or die with Trump. I don't know if they are thinking big picture.
I think that's right, David. I think they have decided they are going to be for him no matter war. Sunk cost theory and all that.
They’re a bit high on their own supply in their belief that every American “knows” the indictments are BS, and assuming that anyone who says otherwise online is a paid lying shill. I am not lying, and believe you me, I’d LOVE for someone to pay me to spout waffle about this stuff online, but I have gotten that assumption for a good thirty years. Lately they seem to have enjoyed adding the word “gaslighting” to it.
Doesn't the Electoral College turn every Presidental election into a 50/50 tossup these days? Aren't Republicans depending on the Trump loses popular vote/wins Electoral College dichotomy? As a Democrat, should these numbers be telling me to have (faint to faintly moderate) hopes of a Biden 53-47?
This is CRITICALLY important. I think that the chances of the electoral college delivering Trump a victory -- even if he (as he did in 2016 and 2020) loses the popular vote is a very really part of the consideration.
I look at the electoral map from 2020 and don’t see what states Trump could flip to win.
Hillary took PA, WI and MI for granted in 2016 and lost them. Michigan is now probably the bluest state in the country. Because of Trump, Republicans ran a grifter from NJ for Senate and an extremist MAGA loon for governor. By comparison Wisconsin doesn’t look as bad, but doesn’t look great for the GOP. The party has serious problems there.
But still, nothing compared to what they have in AZ and GA. The election shenanigans and candidate quality in both those states is not going to redound to Trump’s favor.
If Trump flipped WI, AZ and GA that would bring him to a tie. I don’t see that happening.
I doubt Biden will win GA again -- the GA Republicans will move heaven and earth to stop blacks from voting and will probably be successful.
Same with WI -- Rs own the legislature and will work incessantly to stop (especially young) people from voting in the cities (read Madison and Milwaukee); they are already planning to impeach the new D justice to protect their extreme gerrymander.
Beware people professing that Biden will win easily -- they are no more in the real world than that MAGAts who think Trump is a shoe in.
I’m not saying he’ll win easily. The country is too evenly divided for that. But, it’s not as if Republicans weren’t already making the efforts you describe. Is that easier when their party is divided?
GA has two Democratic senators. One is Jewish and one is Black. Kemp beat a MAGA opponent in David Purdue by 50 points. Raffensberger has also been re-elected. I don’t see that the MAGA brand is real popular.
I see the election of Janet Protasiewicz in Wisconsin in a special election to the Supreme Court there to be a great sign. Also, they have Kristina Karamo as head of the GOP for the state. She is still saying Trump was cheated. As a bonus, she lost by 14 points for Secretary of State and is saying she was also cheated. That’s not who I’d want running things.
I don’t believe the GOP is real unified in either state. It’s feeling the Trump Effect: ETTD.
<b>Republicans will move heaven and earth to stop blacks from voting and will probably be successful.</b>
I don’t see the reason to believe they “will probably be successful.” I’m sure they’ll try to place some roadblocks. And Democrats will work to overcome them and get out the vote. Despite her loss, Stacey Abrams seems to be an accomplished organizer.
I agree that Stacey Abrams has been amazing -- she has done more than most people. I'd love to say that the GA GOP is impotent, but sadly I don't believe that. Kemp and Rafsenberger (sp) are both under tremendous pressure from other Republicans to not let 2020 happen again.
The key in WI will be the GOP ability to stop the young people from voting. We'll have to see how successful they will be -- they have more than a year to work on it.
You realize these are the same type of reasons given for why he didn't stand a chance in 16, right? I mean, you know ALL of the pundits said he couldn't win? Remember that? Pepperidge Farms does.
See this is the "polling is bullshit" theory. I think Trump will always have a chance because of the electoral college. I just think he represents the worst chance that Republicans have. That does NOT mean I think he can't win.
Don’t really think they are the “same type of reasons.” Hillary ignored MI, WI and PA because she so confident of winning and campaigned in states she had no chance in.
This is 8 years later and Trump has a track record of presidenting, also 91 felony charges against him.
Joe Biden is Hillary Clinton. And no matter how much Republicans wish him to be, he’s also not Hunter Biden.
And as I commented, the state GOP parties are not what they were in 2016 before they were infected with Trumpism.
Would it be too much for Substack to allow editing?
*Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton *
There’s been an industry bent on destroying her since she was FLOTUS. Joe is a little harder to demonize.
Kevin, if you click on the the dots immediately to the right of the 'Reply' button, one of the options for you as the author of the comment is the opportunity to edit your post, and then re-save it - hopes this helps.
Thanks!!
I'm one of those loons who thinks Hillary would have won (electoral college as well as the popular vote) had Jim Comey not made his "we've reopened the what-about-her-emails investigation" a week and a half before the election. At the time I was working in an office full of twenty-somethings and I, the resident 50-year-old, had rallied all the Bernie Bros, of which I was one, to reluctantly supporting Hillary. After Comey's ill-advised announcement the consensus in the office was back to "they're both the same" and they avoided the ballot box in droves.
Yeah, this is the reason why I’m wary.
I'm loving your math!
You forgot the most important factor. A ton of Republican voters actually believe - not just trolling their liberal and progressive friends and family - that trump won in 2020 and that it was stolen. Given that premise, of course they think he's more electable. If they're right about the stolen election that means trump has won twice already.
Micah, this is a very good point. He doesn't have the whiff of a loser if you don't believe he lost in the first place.
"A ton of Republican voters actually believe - not just trolling their liberal and progressive friends and family - that trump won in 2020 and that it was stolen."
I sincerely doubt this -- like all things Trump, people "embrace" the lies and BS he and the other Rs put out because they "have to" to stay in the cult. You say that you don't think it is just "owning the libs", but I think this is doing what they have to do to continue to be friends with their group. Most of these people are not stupid -- they know what's going on, so they embrace this stuff because it lets them continue to be part of the groups that share their virulent hatred of "the Jews" or "the blacks" or "the libs" or "the Muslims" or "the gays" or whatever other group their bigotry focuses on. From what I've seen, hate is the only thing that binds MAGAts or Rs together --- in order to maintain their hates, they will embrace almost anything. And that is what we see.
Some are so far gone that they inhabit an alternate reality. They may start off knowing it's a lie. But they repeat it over and over and convince themselves through repetition that it's the truth.
The idea of DeSantis as president is what terrifies me. He shown is in Florida exactly what he believes in and it is not American democracy. I don't want Trump either, but it freaks me out when people say that DeSantis could beat Biden.
I agree. And I take some hope in the fact that as people come to know DeSantis, the less they like him. To repurpose and old joke about Ted Cruz: You know why people hate DeSantis when they meet him? It saves time.
I think part of the reason many R voters aren't worried by the numbers is that they don't believe polls, and they don't believe them for two reasons: 1) they distrust anything related to the" establishment" or "elites"; 2) there is a disconnect between the numbers and their day-to-day experience, in which they are with a social group that largely supports Trump and hear affirming views from the media they consume.
Todd, a very astute point.
Chris, do any of the 3 explanations take into account that around 30% of Republicans are cult members? I used to say that facetiously. I say it with total sincerity now.
It is so hard to put oneself into the shoes, so to speak, of a MAGA/Trump supporter...just like there is no way, at least for me, to truly understand those who followed Jim Jones, or David Koresh, Charles Manson, or the other 'leaders' who successfully encouraged their followers to participate in self-destructive acts, things they most likely would never have done on their own.
And this is not meant to sound like hyperbole...
I live in a county that is reliably blue save for two college towns. We are the only county west of the fall line that is blue on election maps. I am surrounded by TFG's supporters. They literally do not let any information into their bubble that doesn't line up with what they believe. A dear friend who is a self-professed former Republican because of t**** will send me TikToks about political stuff that is bat-sh*t insane and ask me my opinion. He is getting his politcal news from freaking TikTok!! Before his conversion, the only other people in his orbit would have been the ones forwarding him the insane TikTok. Bless his heart, he told me the other day he had just found out about QAnon because of that child trafficking movie (!!) and that he didn't know a lot about it, but "some of their ideas seemed pretty good." After picking myself up off the floor I gave him a little tutorial in QAnon and assured him that fully 100% of their ideas are absolutely insane. My point being, he is a very representative example of the left half of Virginia.
Kathi - my heart goes out to you, and your friend. I wish you the patience to be able to continue to gently help your friend be open to other sources of information. And I hope you can help find peace there in Virginia.
Two things can be true here. 1) Great news if, like me, you despise Trump and everything he represents.; and 2) Despite number one above, IF he does lose (and yes, it's still an "if"), he will again scream that it was a "rigged election" and we will (horrifyingly) see more violence from his supporters.
Ian, I don't think there is ANY way that Trump admits he lost in 2024 -- no matter the outcome. The only BIG difference -- and it is big -- is that the incumbent in the White House will be Biden, not Trump. Which, I think, limits Trump's ability to try to do what he did in 2020.
Absolutely correct. The R plans to seize power pretty much rely on an R being president.
They're just straight up devoted to Him, and they don't care about anything else. It's sickening.
This is kind of part and parcel about what I was saying about the statistical tie that non crazy people were going into a screaming muppet run about a couple weeks ago: Trump’s 43% in that poll was almost certainly something like a ceiling, and Biden’s wasn’t. There are a LOT of people who are fuzzy about saying they would rather have someone besides Biden or Trump, but if that’s the real choice in November 2024, they’re not going for Trump.
But remember: It's the electoral college that decides it, not the popular vote...So I think the assumption is that Biden wins the popular vote but his margin matters a ton as it relates to the electoral college.
Quite true. And this is where the possibility that almost 60% of the population is leaning against voting for Trump becomes crucial, and figures like “as much as half the Republican voter base will not vote for Trump if he’s been convicted of a crime” start getting relevant. It’s sad that we have to think of it in these terms, but it’s a thing.
Hey Chris, in light of that what are your thoughts regarding the National Popular Vote pact?
You are missing another option: Republicans, thanks to the Electoral College, think that they can still win with only 40% of the vote.
I don't think the number is that low...but you are right that a big part of the calculation is whether they can win with, say 46% of the the national vote.
What percentage of the popular vote would be needed for an R victory? I hope that those looking to 2028 will be eager to unite the country once more.
Well Trump won 46% of vote in 2016 and won 300+ electoral votes. So maybe somewhere around 45% nationally?
Conversely, what would be needed for a Democrat to win?
Somewhere around 52%-53%
It could even need to be a little higher -- not 60% or anything near that. But recall that Biden's 81M votes was ~53.25% and a few tens of thousands shift would have had the election go the other way. Trying to define a national percentage is problematic because of the nature of the Electoral College where a small number of votes in critical states can have such a tremendous effect.
Behold! I read recently, and agree with the theory that the Republicans are gambling that once those 'Not Trump' voters realize that Biden is attempting to win by weaponizing the DOJ, those 'Not Trump' voters will "see the light" and transform into 'Yes Trump!' voters.
Deeply implausible to us, but humans are occasionally surprising in just how rapidly large numbers of you can adopt magical thinking in short timeframes.
I thought Chris would get through the entire column without a "But what about Biden's age", but there it was at the end.
"Even DeSantis, who has run a deeply disappointing campaign to date, would be able to drive a generational contrast against Biden ..."
Michael, the overriding concern -- among Democrats and the electorate at large -- about Biden is his age. So, yes, I will keep mentioning it.
You could be right -- but I doubt that anyone that is not already a Trump/DeSantis voter is going to say "Gee, Biden is old, so I'm going to vote for Trump (or DeSantis) because age is the only issue that is important."
I’m scared to feel optimistic 🙀
Chris,
An interesting poll would be to ask people their choices on a variety of policies, without a connection to party or candidate.
I realize the MAGAs wouldn't care about policy, but it would be a good exercise for ferreting out right-leaning Independents to help them feel more comfortable with Uncle Joe.