A scary poll for Joe Biden (and Democrats)

The age thing. Again.

(Joe Biden)

I continue to believe that concerns about Joe Biden’s age and abilities pose the single biggest threat to his chances of being reelected next November.

And a new Associated Press-NORC poll out today confirms that suspicion.

The numbers are striking.

• 77% say Biden is too old to be effective for four more years — including 69% of Democrats(!)

• In a word association tied to Biden, 26% volunteered something related to Biden’s age — calling him “old” or “outdated”

• 15% used words like “slow” and “confused” to describe Biden

Like, that seems bad!

Especially when you consider that Republicans are now — and will continue to — run on the idea that Biden either a) isn’t all there b) won’t survive another four years or c) both.

This is what former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley posted on her Twitter X account over the weekend:

And she is far from the only Republican trying to make Biden’s age the central issue of the campaign.

In interview after interview, former president Donald Trump suggests that Biden doesn’t know what’s going on or is badly out of it.

“I don't think he's going to make it to the gate, but, you know, you never know,” Trump told Tucker Carlson of Biden at one point last week.

“Well, I think he's worse mentally than he is physically,” Trump said at another point. “And, physically, he's not exactly a triathlete or any kind of an athlete.”

(Sidebar: Markedly fewer people say Trump is too old for office. In that same AP-NORC poll, just 51% said the former president was too old to effectively serve as president. Trump is 77; Biden is 80.)

Last week, the conservative media lit up over footage that they suggested showed Biden falling asleep while in Hawaii to tour the devastation caused by the fires there.

That claim was false. As Reuters noted in a fact check:

The clip circulating online starts at the 19:25 minute mark in the C-SPAN footage, with the speaker saying, “We are a community that relies on family, on ohana.” Biden can be seen with his head bowed, nodding and blinking, visibly not asleep.

And, on Sunday, during an interview with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said that “if you’re supporting Donald Trump today you’re effectively handing it to Kamala Harris, potentially down the road.”

In short, the whispers aren’t whispers anymore. And it’s August 2023; imagine where we are going to be next fall!

Biden, to date, has not — really — engaged on the age question. His canned response has been to laugh it off.

As NBC News noted earlier this summer:

In the past two weeks, Biden has been cracking jokes about his age more often than usual, according to an NBC News analysis of his remarks.

He’s dropped some version of the punchline — he’s old and he knows it — during events on gun safety and international diplomacy, at campaign fundraisers and in a speech about abortion rights. The more direct approach, as Biden ramps up his re-election campaign, is a shift from the way he’s typically tried to make light of his age: by noting he’s “been around a long time.”

That is, of course, strategic — a way to acknowledge the doubts out there about his age while not giving them too much credence.

But, the AP poll numbers suggest that strategy isn’t working. People aren’t growing any less concerned with his age — if anything concern is rising.

And, episodes like Biden’s trip over a sandbag left on stage at the Air Force Academy in June don’t help matters. Even Biden’s most loyal advocates agree that another fall like that could have devastating consequences for Biden’s reelection prospects.

Plus, there is other evidence that Biden has slowed in recent years.

As the New York Times noted in a piece last summer (before Biden’s fall onstage):

[Aides] acknowledged Mr. Biden looks older than just a few years ago, a political liability that cannot be solved by traditional White House stratagems like staff shake-ups or new communications plans. His energy level, while impressive for a man of his age, is not what it was, and some aides quietly watch out for him. He often shuffles when he walks, and aides worry he will trip on a wire. He stumbles over words during public events, and they hold their breath to see if he makes it to the end without a gaffe.

The problem here is relatively obvious. Biden’s age is both a) the biggest problem voters have with him and b) something he can’t change.

He can’t change his age nor can he change the fact that he moves slower — and perhaps speaks more haltingly —than he did even a few years ago.

What should Biden do? I think he should give a big speech on age — and what it means for him and for the voting public.

Biden has hinted at what the message of such a speech could be. In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria in July, Biden said this about his age (and it as an issue in the coming presidential race):

I think we’re at an inflection point. I think the world is changing, and I think there is one thing that comes with age if you’re being honest about it your whole life, and that is some wisdom. I think we’re on the cusp of being able to make significant positive changes in the world. I really honest to God do.

Yes! To the extent there is a winning way to frame the age issue, that is it. Make it less about the numerical age and more about the wisdom and experience that Biden has gained over his many years in public life.

That’s not going to convince hard core Republicans but Biden doesn’t need to convince them. He needs to rally the Democratic base behind him and pick off just enough independents in swing states to win.

The reality is that the age issue isn’t going away for Joe Biden. He and his advisers need to find a way more effectively address it than they have to date.